Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 29, PLQ 28, CAQ 19, PCQ 14, QS 8
(TORONTO, May 14, 2026) – The Parti québécois under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has taken first place in Quebec provincial voting intentions, according to a new Pallas Data survey conducted for QC125. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ sits at 29%, with the Liberal Party of Quebec under Charles Milliard at 28%. The Coalition avenir Québec under Christine Fréchette stands at 19%, with the Parti conservateur du Québec under Éric Duhaime at 14% and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal at 8%. “The PQ has a narrow lead, but the bigger story is how compressed the top of this field has become,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Three weeks ago, the Liberals led. Now the PQ leads. The campaign hasn’t started, and the race is already this volatile.” Voting Intentions Among all voters, the PQ leads at 26%, followed by the PLQ at 25%, the CAQ at 17%, the PCQ at 14%, and QS at 7%. Ten percent remain undecided. Language divides the race as sharply as ever. Among non-francophone voters, the PLQ commands 56% of the decided vote. Among francophones, the PQ leads with 35%, followed by the PLQ at 20%, with the CAQ at 22%. On the Island of Montreal, the PLQ reaches 54% of decided voters. In the Quebec City RMR, the PQ leads at 34%, followed by the CAQ at 22% and the PCQ at 18%. In Montreal’s suburbs, the PCQ pulls 27%. The CAQ’s 19% overall is concentrated among older francophones and suburban voters outside the island. QS support skews young. The party draws 13% among 18-to-34-year-olds in the decided electorate, against just 4% among voters 65 and older. Government Performance The Fréchette government earns mixed grades. Overall, 42% of respondents express some dissatisfaction with its performance, compared with 22% who are satisfied and 21% who are neutral. Fifteen percent say they don’t know. The partisan contours are predictable: CAQ voters are the most satisfied (49% somewhat or very satisfied), QS voters the most opposed (58% very dissatisfied). The more notable number is in the PQ cohort: 37% of Plamondon’s voters can’t rate the government, which suggests a meaningful share of his support comes from people who are checked out of the current government rather than actively hostile to it. Best Premier On best premier, Plamondon leads at 25%, with Fréchette at 22%, Milliard at 20%, Duhaime at 11%, and Ghazal at 7%. Fifteen percent say none of the above or don’t know. Among francophones, Plamondon leads with 32%, followed by Fréchette at 25% and Milliard at 14%. Fréchette running second overall on best premier is a structural asset for the CAQ: some voters who have drifted from the party still see her as the most credible leader in the field. Milliard’s third-place finish despite the PLQ’s competitive vote share is a problem. His support is concentrated among non-francophone voters (36%) and PLQ loyalists. Outside that coalition, he isn’t pulling. Sovereignty Just under six in ten Quebec voters (59%) say they would vote against sovereignty in a referendum, with 31% in favour and 10% undecided. The generational pattern is sharp. Voters aged 50 to 64 are the most opposed at 67%. Among 18-to-34-year-olds, 48% would vote No, and 43% would vote Yes. The rest of Quebec, outside the major urban centres, is the most sovereigntist region, at 37% in favour. Partisan dynamics tell the story of the sovereigntist coalition’s limits. Among PQ voters, 78% would vote Yes. Among QS voters, only 35% would. Among CAQ voters, 18%, and among PCQ voters, 17%. “The Yes side needs to reach beyond committed PQ voters to build a winning coalition, and that hasn’t happened,” said Angolano. “Younger voters are more open to sovereignty than their elders, but ‘more open’ and ‘committed’ are not the same thing. The 18-to-34 gap is real, but it’s soft.” Party Leaders Duhaime has the worst net favourables of any leader tested: 57% combined unfavourable. His 16% overall favourability is almost entirely a function of PCQ loyalty. Among QS voters, his unfavourable rating reaches 93%. Plamondon is the most polarizing of the sovereigntist leaders. His combined unfavourable rating is 48%, driven by PLQ voters (78% unfavourable) and QS voters (80% unfavourable). His 34% combined favourable is concentrated in his own coalition. Fréchette and Milliard occupy a similar middle ground. Fréchette earns 31% favourable overall, with strength among older voters and CAQ loyalists. Milliard’s 22% overall rises to 33% among non-francophone Quebecers. Ghazal has the lowest combined favourable in the field at 20%. Her 46% combined unfavourable rating suggests most non-QS voters have already formed a negative view of her. Among QS supporters, 84% view her favourably. Methodology Pallas Data conducted this survey on May 7 and 9, 2026, using a random sample of 1,176 adults aged 18 and over living in the province of Quebec. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response (IVR), reaching respondents on both landlines and mobile phones. Responses were weighted using demographic information from the 2021 Census to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. This survey was commissioned by QC125. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas BC Conservative Leadership Poll: Elliott 31, Findlay 24, Black 18, Milobar 9, Fulmer 7
(TORONTO, May 4, 2026) – Caroline Elliott leads the BC Conservative Party leadership race with 31% of first-choice support among party members, according to a new Pallas Data survey conducted May 1–2, 2026. Kerry-Lynne Findlay sits second at 24%, followed by Iain Black at 18%. Peter Milobar and Yuri Fulmer trail at 9% and 7% respectively. 12% of members are still undecided. The poll was sponsored by the Elliott campaign. “In a preferential ballot race with this much ballot exhaustion, first place is the place to be,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The math rewards whoever gets their voters out.” Regional Breakdown Elliott’s lead is built in Metro Vancouver, where she runs at 36%. Findlay is at 17% there. Outside the Lower Mainland, the race tightens considerably. Findlay leads in the Fraser Valley (33%), Vancouver Island (27%), and the North (31%), with Elliott at 26% and 25% in the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island, respectively. Findlay has a lead in the Interior over Elliott by four points. Black’s best region is Metro Vancouver at 23%, nearly five points above his province-wide number. Milobar draws most of his support from the Interior (20%), while he is in single digits everywhere else. Gender and Age Elliott leads men at 34% and drops to 23% among women. Findlay is close to the mirror image: 19% among men, 33% among women. Elliott peaks with the 35-49 cohort at 39%. Among members 65 and older, Findlay edges ahead, 27% to 24%. Black and Milobar both run stronger with older members. “Findlay’s voters are women, older members, and members outside Metro Vancouver. That’s a real coalition. But Elliott’s lower mainland numbers put her in pole position and make her vote more efficient, given how BC Conservative membership is distributed regionally,” said Angolano. Second Choice: Ballot Exhaustion Favours the Front-Runner 37% of decided members said they have no second choice. That figure hits 41% in the Interior and 43% among Elliott’s own first-choice voters. In a preferential ballot, those ballots don’t transfer and are gone after the first elimination. This means that votes that are exhausted leave the voter pool, the denominator shrinks, and the remaining candidates’ vote share increases – including that of the leader. Elliott’s seven-point gap over Findlay is more durable than it looks for exactly this reason. Where transfers do happen, Elliott gains more from Black’s voters than Findlay does. Among Black’s first-choice supporters, 25% name Elliott as their second choice, compared with 19% for Findlay. Findlay’s best transfer pool is Fulmer voters at 29%, but Fulmer is at 7% province-wide. The ceiling on that gain is low. “This race will be decided by ground game and campaign organization, not second-choice arithmetic,” said Angolano. “With ballot exhaustion this high, the candidate who turns out his or her members on voting day has an advantage that polling can’t fully capture. Elliott is in first. Staying there is the whole game.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 1st–2nd, 2026 among a sample of 1,253 members of the British Columbia Conservative Party. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by region according to the regional distribution of seats in the province of British Columbia. This poll was sponsored by the Caroline Elliott campaign, and the membership list was provided to Pallas Data in accordance with the rules of the Leadership Race. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 37, OLP 32, NDP 24, Green 6 and Ford’s Jet Has Stung His Base
(TORONTO, April 23, 2026) – Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives lead Ontario’s three-party race, but a new Pallas Data poll conducted for The Trillium finds the government’s $28.9-million jet purchase doing real damage to PC support, and the premier’s own explanation is only helping with his existing voters. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs sit at 37%, followed by the Ontario Liberals under John Fraser at 32%, and the NDP under Marit Stiles at 24%. The Greens hold 6%. That 37% is down from 40% in Pallas’s previous Ontario poll conducted April 8 — before the jet story broke — and represents the party’s lowest level of support in more than two years. “Lucky for the Premier that this slip-up happened years before the next election, but this jet purchase has stung him,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Parts of his base are looking at him a lot less favourably because of this.” The Jet: Opposition Holds After Ford’s Explanation The poll went into the field on April 21–22, shortly after Ford held a media conference insisting the jet was never intended to be exclusively for his use and would have served cabinet ministers and emergencies as well. Ford told reporters that once he explained the broader purpose, at least half the people he spoke with came around to supporting it. The numbers do not support that reading. Initially, 79% of Ontarians said they oppose the purchase, with 65% opposing it strongly. Just 18% expressed support. A majority of PC voters (54%) opposed it as well. After respondents were read Ford’s explanation and were invited to reconsider, opposition dropped modestly: from 79% to 74% overall, and from 54% to 45% among PC voters. Supporters of other parties were largely unmoved. “The good news for the Premier is that his explanation landed with a majority of PC voters, but the explanation is not landing with everybody else,” Angolano said. “That gap is the core of the problem. Ford appears to be calibrating his read of public opinion off conversations with his own supporters – the audiences at events and the callers to his phone,” Angolano said. “But that is definitely not the opinion of Ontarians”. A Third of Past PC Voters Now Say They Won’t Return The vote impact question is the poll’s sharpest finding. When asked how the jet purchase affected their support for the PC Party of Ontario, 18% of all voters said they had supported the PCs in the past and won’t again. Another 14% said they’d voted PC before and are now less likely to do so. Combined, that’s roughly one in three voters who previously supported the party at some point now expressing a softened or severed commitment. Just 26% of all voters said they had supported the PCs before and will do so again. Among current PC voters, 17% say they either won’t vote for the PCs now (3.4%) or are less likely to vote for them now (13.4%). 17% of 37% is 6%. If that 6% leaves the PCs, they would drop to 31%, which is the party’s historic base and is not enough to win the next election. “The Premier can’t keep stepping on banana peels like this and expect to hold the lead in voting intentions much longer,” Angolano said. “The good news for him is that the election is three years away and he can course-correct.” “But if he continues with the string of errors – this, the Skills Development fund, and FOI issues – and he will suffer Francois Legault’s fate in the next election.” For context, Legault and the Coalition Avenir Quebec won a large majority in the 2022 Quebec election, but Legault has since resigned and the CAQ are currently at 14% in the latest Pallas Data poll and on track to win zero seats in the upcoming election in October. The Regional Map The broader picture of voting intentions shows structural PC advantages outside Toronto that remain intact. In Northern Ontario, the PCs lead, with decided and leaning voters at 50%, the OLP at 30%, and the NDP at 18%. The GTA goes 41% PC, 35% OLP, 17% NDP. Southwest Ontario sits at 39% PC, 28% NDP, 25% OLP. Toronto is the tightest region: OLP at 36%, PCs at 31%, NDP at 29%. Eastern Ontario is competitive as well, with the OLP leading at 34% against the PCs at 29%. The map gives the PCs a path. The jet has put soft support in play in regions where the party cannot afford to bleed. Methodology This survey was conducted by Pallas Data on April 21–22, 2026, among a sample of 1,007 adults aged 18 or older living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. Interviews were conducted by IVR on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level; margins of error are higher within subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. This survey was conducted for The Trillium.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PLQ 32, PQ 29, CAQ 14, PCQ, QS 11
(TORONTO, April 22, 2026) – The Liberal Party of Quebec under Charles Milliard leads Quebec provincial voting intentions, according to a new Pallas Data survey conducted for QC125. Among decided and leaning voters, the PLQ sits at 32%, with the Parti québécois under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon close behind at 29%. The Coalition avenir Québec under Christine Fréchette and the Parti conservateur du Québec under Éric Duhaime are tied at 14%, with Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal at 11%. “This is a two-party race in most of Quebec, and now that the Liberals have taken the lead, the election in October becomes very interesting,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Voting Intentions Among all voters, the PLQ leads at 28%, followed by the PQ at 24%, the CAQ at 11%, the PCQ at 11%, and QS at 8%. Seventeen percent remain undecided. The language divide defines the race. Among non-francophone voters, the PLQ commands 64% of the decided vote. Among francophones, the PQ leads at 34% to the PLQ’s 21%. On the Island of Montreal, the PLQ pulls 57% of decided voters. In the Quebec City RMR, the PQ leads at 33%, followed by the PLQ at 22%, with the PCQ a competitive third at 20%. In Montreal’s suburbs, the PCQ reaches 34%: its strongest region and a number worth watching as an indicator of a potential right-of-centre consolidation. The CAQ’s position is weak across the board. Its 14% among decided voters is concentrated among older francophones and suburban Montrealers. QS draws its support heavily from younger voters: the party pulls 23% among 18-to-34-year-olds in the decided electorate, compared to just 3% among voters 65 and older. Best Premier On best premier, Charles Milliard leads at 26%, with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 23%, Christine Fréchette at 14%, Éric Duhaime at 11%, and Ruba Ghazal at 7%. Fourteen percent say none of the above or don’t know. Milliard’s lead is almost entirely a function of PLQ coalition loyalty and non-francophone voters. Among francophones, Plamondon leads best premier at 27% to Milliard’s 17%. Fréchette’s 18% among francophones suggests the CAQ still commands a residual base of loyal voters even as its provincial numbers erode. Sovereignty Just over six in ten Quebec voters (63%) would vote against sovereignty in a referendum, with 31% in favour and 6% undecided. The No side’s strength is consistent across most demographics, but the generational pattern tells a specific story: voters aged 50–64 are the most opposed, at 74%, while 18-to-34-year-olds are the least opposed, at 55%, with 40% saying they would vote Yes. The partisan breakdown is equally telling. Only among PQ voters does support for sovereignty reach a majority (64%). QS voters split roughly 53% Yes to 37% No, a finding that complicates the sovereigntist coalition: QS support for independence is softer than its reputation suggests. Even 17% of PCQ voters say they would vote Yes. “Sovereignty still polls well below 50% across the electorate, and it’s not moving meaningfully among younger voters the way sovereigntist strategists need it to,” said Angolano. “But the PQ doesn’t necessarily need a majority on sovereignty to win an election. It needs enough of a sovereigntist coalition to beat a fragmented field.” A Third Referendum Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum on sovereignty in his first mandate if the PQ wins the next election. Quebecer reaction is sharply negative. 71% of respondents are unfavourable to the idea, with 53% strongly opposed. Only 26% are favourable. Opposition crosses party lines. Among CAQ voters, 87% are opposed. Among PLQ voters, 96%. Even among QS voters, 51% are opposed. This suggests that QS supporters are more comfortable with sovereignty as an abstract aspiration than as an imminent political project. The only cohort where a majority supports the idea is PQ voters themselves, at 61% in favour. “Plamondon’s referendum pledge is a base-mobilization play,” said Angolano. “The numbers are unambiguous: most Quebecers, including many who would vote PQ, do not want this fight right now.” Party Leaders Of the five leaders tested, Duhaime draws the highest unfavourable ratings overall (58% combined), with particular resistance from younger voters (64% unfavourable among 18-to-34-year-olds) and QS supporters (82% unfavourable). His favourable rating of 19% is concentrated almost entirely within his own party’s voters (74% favourable among PCQ voters). Plamondon’s ratings are polarized. He earns 33% favourable overall, but 47% unfavourable. Milliard and Fréchette occupy similar territory: moderate unfavourables, large neutral blocs, and limited cross-partisan appeal. Milliard’s 31% favourable is driven by PLQ loyalists and non-francophone voters. Fréchette’s 30% favourable is concentrated among older voters and those still attached to the CAQ. Methodology: Pallas Data conducted this survey from April 13 to 14, 2026, using a random sample of 956 adults aged 18 and over living in the province of Quebec. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response (IVR), reaching respondents on both landlines and mobile phones. Responses were weighted using demographic information from the 2021 Census to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. This survey was commissioned by QC125. The margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 40, OLP 31, NDP 22: Ontarians Split on Housing
(TORONTO, April 17, 2026) – The Progressive Conservatives under Premier Doug Ford hold a clear lead in Ontario, but a deeply divided electorate on housing policy and a wide-open Liberal leadership race are reshaping the political picture ahead of the next provincial election. In a survey conducted for The Trillium, Pallas Data surveyed 1,084 Ontario adults aged 18 and over and eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on April 8, 2026. The margin of error is ±3% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs sit at 40%, followed by the Ontario Liberal Party at 31%, the NDP under Marit Stiles at 22%, the Greens under Mike Schreiner at 6%, and other parties at 2%. “While Ford leads, this is not as commanding position of a position as it was last year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. The Regional Picture The North is Ford’s strongest region: the PCs take 59% of decided and leaning voters there, with the NDP at 19% and the OLP at 14%. The GTA tilts PC at 42%, with the OLP at 34% and the NDP at 17%. Toronto is the most competitive region in the province. The PCs and OLP are tied at 34%, with the NDP at 26%. Eastern Ontario sits close to the provincial average, with the PCs leading at 34%, the OLP at 32%, and the NDP at 27%. The Southwest goes PC at 41%. Gender and Age Male voters break PC at 45%, compared with 35% among women. The OLP leads among women at 34%, compared to 27% among men. Among 18- to 34-year-old voters, the PC lead narrows: PCs at 34%, OLP at 31%, NDP at 29%. The 50-to-64 cohort goes PC at 46%. Voters 65 and older go PC at 43%. “The gender gap is real, and the age gap is the one to watch,” Angolano said. “Younger voters are not locking into the PC column. Housing is the issue that moves them, and Ford has not closed the deal on that file.” Housing: A Coalition Built on a Paradox Pallas asked Ontarians whether they preferred increasing housing supply by cutting development charges and speeding up construction, or protecting renters and expanding social housing. The province splits nearly evenly: 40% prefer supply, 42% prefer protection. The party breakdown tells a sharper story. Sixty-four percent of PC decided and leaning voters prefer the supply solution. NDP voters go 65% for protection. OLP voters go 60% for protection. PC voters are the backbone of the supply coalition and, at the same time, the least likely of any partisan group to believe that supply lowers prices. Only 26% of PC voters think building more affordable housing helps lower prices for everyone, compared to 50% of NDP voters and 46% of OLP voters. Thirty-four percent of PC voters believe affordable housing actually drives up market-rate prices by passing construction costs to other buyers. This is the highest of any party. “PC voters back the supply solution because they oppose social housing, not because they believe the market fixes affordability,” Angolano said. “Sixty-four percent support supply. Only 26% think it lowers prices. They are not backing the destination. They are choosing the road because they hate where the other road goes.” Fifty-eight percent of Ontarians say they support building more affordable housing. Support drops by 23 points if it means a tax increase, by 25 points if neighbourhood character would change, and by 25 points if it means fewer parking spots in the area. Asked whether they would support a new development in their neighbourhood if 25% of units were allocated to affordable housing, 47% said they would support it, and 30% said they would oppose. PC voters opposed at 51%. NDP voters supported at 72%. OLP voters supported at 64%. The HST Cut Ontarians are split on the Ford-Carney measure announced March 30, which removes the 13% HST on new homes priced under $1 million with a partial rebate up to $1.85 million. Forty-one percent support the measure, and 23% oppose it. The messaging picture is less settled. Forty-six percent say the cut is a giveaway to wealthy buyers that does not guarantee lower prices for average families. 28% say it is a necessary move to lower costs and jump-start construction. NDP voters go 65% for the giveaway framing. OLP voters go 54%. PC voters are the only group where the pro-cut framing wins, at 46%. Renters looking to buy are the most supportive group: 62% support the measure and 35% call it a necessary move to lower costs – the highest of any housing group. “Ford won the argument with the one group the HST cut was designed to reach,” Angolano said. “The problem is the broader public has absorbed the opposition’s messaging. Nearly half of Ontarians think it’s a giveaway. That is a communications failure, not a policy failure.” Methodology The analysis contained in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on April 8, 2026, among a sample of 1,084 adults aged 18 and over, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is ±3.0% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher within each subsample. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Toronto Poll: Chow Leads Bradford 35% to 29%, But Most Think City Is Going In The Wrong Direction
(TORONTO, 10 March 2026) – Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford by six points in Toronto’s 2026 mayoral race, but a new Pallas Data poll finds a city deeply dissatisfied with its direction and unconvinced either challenger is ready to change it. Among all voters, Chow leads Bradford 35% to 29%, with 11% saying they would vote for another candidate and 25% undecided. Among decided voters only, Chow leads 47% to Bradford’s 38%. “Chow’s lead is real, but it is more structural than earned,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “She is ahead because the opposition has not consolidated behind a single candidate. That can change.” When Michael Ford is added to the ballot, Chow holds at 36% while Bradford drops to 22% and Ford takes 17%. Among decided voters in the three-way race, Chow leads at 44%, Bradford sits at 26%, and Ford is at 21%. Ford’s entry does not hurt Chow. It cuts Bradford nearly in half. The neighbourhood breakdown tells the story of the race. Bradford leads Chow 42% to 17% in North York among decided voters and holds a similar edge in Etobicoke-York. Chow dominates in Old Toronto and East York, where she commands 57% among decided voters. Scarborough sits at 34% undecided. This is the most volatile part of the city, and likely the most decisive. Failing Grades on Housing and AffordabilityForty-nine percent of Torontonians say the city is headed in the wrong direction. 50% say they are dissatisfied with Mayor Chow’s performance, with 37% describing themselves as very dissatisfied. Only 35% are satisfied: roughly matching her vote share in the horse race. The housing numbers are worse. 65% say the city is not doing enough on housing. 68% say the same on affordability. Both figures hold at 13% satisfied across the board. “The numbers on housing and affordability are not a positive reflection on Chow’s performance so far,” said Angolano. “The city has rendered a verdict. The question is whether the challengers can be a credible alternative.” “Without that credibility established, then Chow has a large enough coalition to win again in October.” The Housing Cleavage41% of Torontonians say the housing problem should be solved by increasing supply through cutting development charges and speeding up construction. 36% say the priority should be to protect renters and expand social housing. Twenty-three percent are unsure. Among Bradford voters, 62% favour the supply approach. Among Chow voters, 59% favour renter protection. The directional crosstab is starker still: among those who say the city is headed in the right direction, 58% favour renter protection. Among those who say wrong direction, 59% favour supply. Torontonians aged 35-49 break 50% for supply versus 28% for protection. The 18-34 cohort is exactly split, 44% each: pulled simultaneously toward ownership aspirations and rental market relief. “Knowing that housing is the top issue tells you almost nothing on its own,” said Angolano. “The frustrated majority is speaking two completely different languages, and Chow has locked up the group that wants to see renters’ protection and social housing expanded.” Chow holds the protection frame. But that coalition is a minority in a city dominated by wrong-direction sentiment. Council’s failure to pass citywide as-of-right sixplexes in June 2025, at the cost of $471 million in federal Housing Accelerator Fund money, sits on the record as the clearest example of that tension. Bradford’s path is through the supply-side Torontonians want change and have a policy frame ready. Whether they see Bradford as the candidate to deliver it is a different question, and the poll suggests they are not yet convinced. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 7th-8th, 2026, among a sample of 735 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted via automated telephone interviews with Interactive Voice Recording (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.6%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 42, Conservative 40, Green 11, OneBC 5
(TORONTO, 2 March 2026) – The gap between BC’s two main parties has closed two points, according to a new Pallas Data poll. Among decided and leaning voters, the NDP sits at 42% (unchanged since Pallas’s last poll in February), while the BC Conservatives under interim leader Trevor Halford have climbed to 40% (+3%). The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 11%, and Dallas Brodie’s OneBC is at 5%. “A two-point lead is within the margin of error and is a statistical tie,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. The Conservative gains since our last poll suggest the party is consolidating its vote as its leadership race draws attention, and that the budget has been received negatively among British Columbians. The regional picture remains essentially unchanged since our last poll. The NDP leads in Metro Vancouver, 45% to 38%, and by a wide margin on Vancouver Island, 47% to 30%. The Conservatives dominate the Rest of BC, 48% to 35%. The gender gap is where the NDP’s cushion comes from. Women break for Eby’s party by nine points, 46% to 37%. Men go the other way, favouring the Conservatives 44% to 37%. Age tells a more complicated story. The NDP leads with voters 65 and older — 46% to 39% — but trails among the 35-to-49 cohort, where the Conservatives hold a five-point edge. The 18-to-34 group is competitive, with the Conservatives at 42% and the NDP at 37%. Conservative Leadership: Elliott Leads a Wide-Open FieldThe poll asked BC Conservative voters who they would back if the leadership election were held today. The question was put only to those who said they were voting or leaning Conservative. Caroline Elliott leads at 15%. Peter Milobar is at 9%. Iain Black, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, and Darrell Jones each sit at 7%, with Harman Banghu at 4% and Yuri Fulmer at 3%. Two percent named another candidate. Forty-seven percent are undecided. By region, Elliott leads in Metro Vancouver (17%) and across the Rest of BC (13%). Jones does his best work on Vancouver Island, where he takes 12%. Milobar is stronger outside the city, at 12% in the Rest of BC versus 6% in Metro Vancouver. The Budget: Most BCers Have Heard About It, Most Don’t Like ItThe poll also asked about the provincial budget, released earlier in February, which pairs major new spending on health care and housing with a projected deficit of nearly $11 billion. 69% of respondents said they had seen, read, or heard something about it. 24% had not, while 7% were unsure. Far more British Columbians disapprove of the budget than support it. A total of 53% say they oppose the budget, with 35% strongly opposed. By contrast, one in three respondents (33%) said they support the budget, with 11% strongly supporting it. “What’s clear is that Premier Eby’s budget didn’t land with the public,” said Angolano. “We see that reflected in the narrowing of the gap in voting intentions and in the approvals for the budget.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted February 25–27, 2026, among 1,256 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey used Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology, with respondents reached on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region using 2021 Census data. The margin of error is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 30, PLQ 27, PCQ 16, CAQ 14, QS 10
(TORONTO, February 27, 2026) – The Parti Québécois remains in the lead, but a resurgent Liberal Party, and a CAQ leadership contest with a clear frontrunner are reshaping the political landscape ahead of the October 2026 election. In a survey conducted for QC125, Pallas Data surveyed 1,075 Quebec adults aged 18 and over and eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on February 21-22, 2026. The margin of error is ±3% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondo,n sits at 30%, followed by the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard at 27%, the Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime at 16%, the Coalition Avenir Québec at 14%, and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal at 10%. “The PQ remains in the lead, but this is a fundamentally different race than it was a month ago,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. The PLQ Is BackThe most striking finding in this poll is the Liberal surge. The PLQ has jumped three points since our January poll, gaining ground in Montreal and its suburbs. The PLQ now leads on the Island of Montreal with 34%, compared to 16% for the PQ. In the Montreal suburbs, the gap between the two parties has narrowed to just over two points. This means many seats that once looked PQ safe are now genuinely competitive. The PQ Remains Ahead, But the Lead Has NarrowedThe PQ still holds the strongest position of any party and remains the favourite to win a majority government in October. With these numbers, the PQ would win a razor-thin majority. Fifty-two percent of Quebecers, regardless of their own voting intention, expect the PQ to win the next election. But the majority that once looked guaranteed now looks like hard work. The PQ slipped four points from January, and the regional picture shows the party ceding ground in exactly the areas where it needs to hold firm. Sovereignty: Still in the MinorityDespite the PQ’s continued lead, support for Quebec sovereignty sits well below the threshold required to win a referendum. Sixty percent of Quebecers say they would vote against sovereignty if a referendum were held today, compared to 32% who would vote for it, a shift in the wrong direction for the sovereigntist cause compared to our January numbers. Opposition to sovereignty is strongest among the 50-64 age cohort (68%), on the Island of Montreal (74%), and among non-francophones (85%). Among francophones, the split is closer, 53% against and 37% in favour, but still well short of a winning coalition for the PQ. “There’s a significant and persistent gap between electoral support for the PQ and support for its sovereignty project,” Angolano noted. The CAQ Leadership Race: Advantage FréchetteWith François Legault stepping down, the CAQ must choose between Christine Fréchette and Bernard Drainville as its next leader and, by extension, Quebec’s next premier until the October election. Our findings could not be clearer about the public’s preference. Forty-seven percent of Quebecers say Fréchette would make a better premier, compared to just 17% for Drainville. Among CAQ supporters themselves, 57% back Fréchette versus 29% for Drainville. The favourability numbers tell an even starker story. Drainville carries a 62% negative rating, the worst of any politician tested except Legault himself. Only 13% of Quebecers have a favourable impression of him. Fréchette, by contrast, has a mixed but far more manageable profile: 26% favourable, 32% unfavourable, and 39% neutral. Our findings on CAQ vote retention reinforce this picture. Nineteen percent of Quebecers say Fréchette could convince them to vote CAQ, compared to just 10% for Drainville. Sixty-two percent say neither candidate could bring them back to the party, a sobering number for a party hoping that a leadership change will spark a revival. Leader ImpressionsFrançois Legault’s ratings have deteriorated further since January: 72% of Quebecers now hold an unfavourable impression of him, including 54% who are very unfavourable. Only 12% view him favourably. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains the best-regarded leader in the field, with 34% holding a favourable impression compared to 46% unfavourable, a relatively strong position in a polarized environment. Among his own voters, 86% view him favourably. Charles Milliard sits at 23% favourable and 30% unfavourable, with 43% neutral, a profile that reflects his newness on the scene but also real upside potential as he becomes better known. Éric Duhaime and Ruba Ghazal both carry net negative ratings (60% and 45% unfavourable, respectively), though Duhaime retains intense loyalty among PCQ voters, with 89% viewing him favourably within his own base. MethodologyThe analysis contained in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted February 21-22, 2026 among a sample of 1,075 adults aged 18 and over, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 census. The margin of error is ±3.0% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher within each subsample. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 42%, Conservative 37%, Green 13%, OneBC 6%, and Elliott Most Preferred Among Conservative Voters
(TORONTO, 19 February 2026) – A new Pallas Data poll finds that the BC NDP under Premier David Eby continues to lead the province, holding a five-point advantage over the opposition Conservatives as the party searches for a new leader to replace John Rustad. Among decided and leaning voters, the NDP has 42% (-2% since Pallas’s last poll in December), while the BC Conservatives, led by interim leader Trevor Halford, have 37% (-2%). The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 13% (+4%), and OneBC, led by Dallas Brodie, sits at 7% (+1%). “The NDP have a solid lead, but the race is still competitive,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Conservatives’ choice of leader will matter enormously for the next election,” continued Angolano. “While the NDP will hope to peg back Green support to the levels they got in the last election, the next Conservative leader will need to get back the support that they have lost to OneBC.” The NDP leads the Conservatives by nine points in Metro Vancouver (42% to 33%) and by more than twenty points on Vancouver Island (49% to 28%). The Conservatives hold a sizeable advantage in the Rest of BC, leading 46% to 39% among decided and leaning voters. The NDP’s advantage is driven by women, with Eby’s party leading by 18 points (49% to 31%). Among men, the race is tighter, with the Conservatives leading 43% to 35%. Voters aged 65 and above break for the NDP 50% to 36%, while younger voters aged 18 to 34 lean Conservative 37% to 40%, making that cohort the most competitive age group. “The Conservatives have done really well among the 18-34 group in the past election, so their next leader has to be able to speak and excite that group to have a chance at winning the next election.” Conservative Leadership Race: Elliott Most Preferred, But Most Are UndecidedThe survey also asked BC Conservative voters which of the six declared leadership candidates they would support if the leadership election were held today. Caroline Elliott leads the field at 16%, followed by Darrell Jones at 9%, Iain Black at 6%, Peter Milobar at 5%, Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 3%, and Yuri Fulmer at 2%. Five percent said they would vote for another candidate not on the list. However, the most striking finding is that 54% of BC Conservative voters remain undecided. Elliott’s support is particularly strong among younger Conservative voters, with 26% among those aged 18 to 34 and 25% among those aged 35 to 49. Jones performs better among older Conservatives, taking 11% among those 50 to 64 and 10% among voters 65 and older. Geographically, Elliott leads in Metro Vancouver (16%) and the Rest of BC (19%), while Jones performs best on Vancouver Island (11%). Black draws 8% in Metro Vancouver but only 2% in the Rest of BC. “Leadership races are decided by the ability to sell memberships and get members out to vote,” said Angolano. “This measures name recognition among the candidates, and while Caroline Elliott leads, she will need to translate that recognition into member support.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 12th–14th, 2026, among a sample of 988 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and who are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region using 2021 Census data. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 30, NDP 18, Green 5
(TORONTO, 27 January 2026) – The Progressive Conservatives maintain a thirteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found, but nearly half of Doug Ford’s voting coalition says they support the PCs because there’s no better choice right now. In a poll conducted for The Trillium, Pallas Data surveyed 1,015 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on January 24th, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 43%. The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 30%, while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 18%. The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5%. “The PCs continue to hold a commanding lead across the province, strong enough for another majority,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But the composition of Ford’s coalition is remarkable—it’s not purely a matter of conscience; much of it looks like a marriage of convenience.” The PCs have significant leads in every region in Ontario. They lead by six points in Toronto (39% to 33%), nine points in the Greater Toronto Area (48% to 31%), and have a commanding thirty-four point lead in Northern Ontario (52% to 18%). They are also ahead in South Central Ontario (40% to 32%), Eastern Ontario (38% to 32%), and Southwestern Ontario (40% to 28%). The good news for the Liberals is that, while they are at 30% (no difference from their 2025 election total), their vote appears much more efficient than in years past, and they have sizeable leads over the NDP in every region except Northern Ontario. A Marriage of Convenience: 48% of PC Voters Say They Have No Better ChoiceThe poll reveals a striking dynamic within Ford’s coalition. When asked why they’re voting PC, 52% of PC voters said the party aligns with their values and beliefs, while 48% said they don’t have a better choice at this time. “What’s notable about the Ford voting coalition is that nearly half of his voting base is voting for him because they don’t think anyone is better,” said Angolano. “Now, there are two explanations for why this is the case. The first holds that, while Ford is a terrible leader, he is winning by default because the opposition leaders are worse. The second is that people think there is no better choice than Ford because he made the other options look worse.” Ford has beaten six opposition leaders—Mike Schreiner, Andrea Horwath, Kathleen Wynne, Steven Del Duca, Marit Stiles, and Bonnie Crombie—on the road to three straight majorities, increasing the PCs’ vote share every time. Ford Enjoys Credibility Bridge Even With Opposition VotersWhen asked if they would be more or less likely to vote PC if the party were led by someone other than Doug Ford, 36% of Ontarians said they would be less likely, while 34% said they would be more likely—a net positive for the three-term Premier. More remarkably, the effect crosses partisan lines. Among NDP voters, 2% more say they would be less likely to vote PC without Ford. Among Liberal voters, it’s 4% more. “Those numbers reflect the trust Ford enjoys,” said Angolano. “The fact that Liberal and NDP voters say they are less likely to vote for the PCs without Doug Ford suggests he enjoys significant cache even with Ontario voters who won’t vote for his party. Voters may not like him, but they trust him enough to pick him over the alternatives.” Strong Support for Canada-China Trade Deal Divides Along Partisan LinesOntarians show strong support (60%) for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent deal to allow 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into Canada at low tariffs in exchange for China lifting duties on Canadian canola and seafood. However, the issue divides sharply along partisan lines. While 87% of NDP voters and 91% of Liberal voters support the deal, 61% of PC voters oppose it, with 48% strongly opposed. When tested on Doug Ford’s criticism that the deal is a “lopsided deal” that risks Ontario’s auto jobs, 63% of Ontarians disagreed with the Premier. PC voters are split (47% agree with Ford, 46% disagree), but overwhelming majorities of opposition voters reject Ford’s position. Support for Carney’s stated strategy of diversifying trade away from the U.S. by getting Chinese carmakers to invest in Canadian factories is even stronger, with 66% of Ontarians backing the approach. “Spy Cars” Messaging Resonates With PC BasePremier Ford’s characterization of Chinese-made EVs as “spy cars” due to cybersecurity concerns appears to resonate strongly with his base. When asked if this makes them more or less likely to purchase a Chinese EV, 75% of PC voters said less likely (53% much less likely). However, 54% of NDP voters and 53% of Liberal voters said Ford’s messaging makes them more likely to purchase such a vehicle, suggesting the rhetoric may be hardening rather than bridging partisan divides on the issue. Carney Holds Overwhelming Trust Advantage on TradeWhen asked who they trust more to manage Canada’s economic relationship with the United States and China, 61% of Ontarians chose Prime Minister Mark Carney, compared to just 14% who chose Premier Doug Ford. Even among PC voters, Carney holds an edge, with 35% trusting him more versus 32% trusting Ford more on the file. “Ford has set a standard of performance and trust that both opposition leaders must surpass,” said Angolano. “Elections aren’t won by making closing arguments and presenting evidence. They are won by earning voters’ trust. Champions have to be beaten in the ring.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on January 24th, 2026 among a sample of 1,015 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample