Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 34, PLQ 27, PCQ 15, CAQ 11, QS 8
(MONTREAL, January 20, 2026) – The Parti Québécois holds a ten-point lead over the Quebec Liberal Party, according to a Pallas Data poll, as 55% of Quebecers expect the PQ to win the next election. In a survey conducted for QC125, Pallas surveyed 1,128 Quebec adults aged 18 and over and eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on January 9-10, 2026. The margin of error is ±2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Québécois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon sits at 34%. The Quebec Liberal Party, currently in a leadership race, follows at 24%, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec and Ruba Ghazal’s Québec solidaire are tied at 16% and 11% respectively. François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec stands at 11%. “The PQ is positioned to win clearly across every region of the province,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But support for sovereignty remains in the minority, and Quebecers are clearly reluctant about the idea of a referendum in a first PQ mandate.” The PQ holds substantial leads in most regions of Quebec. It leads by 13 points in the rest of Quebec (35% vs 14% for the PLQ), by 12 points in the Quebec City region (30% vs 14% for the PLQ), and by 8 points in Montreal’s suburbs (43% vs 27% for the PLQ). The PLQ retains an advantage on the island of Montreal (36% vs 23% for the PQ). Quebecers Expect a PQ VictoryWhen asked which party will win the next election regardless of their political preference, 55% of Quebecers name the PQ, compared to just 18% for the PLQ. Even among CAQ voters, 20% expect a PQ victory, compared to 52% who believe their own party will win. “The expectation of a PQ victory crosses partisan lines,” Angolano noted. “This suggests that momentum for thePQ is widely recognized, even by those who wouldn’t vote for them.” Sovereignty Remains in the MinorityDespite the PQ’s strong performance in voting intentions, support for Quebec sovereignty remains well below the 50% threshold. If a referendum were held today, 54% of Quebecers would vote against sovereignty, compared to 35% who would vote for it. Opposition to sovereignty is particularly strong among older voters (61% among 50-64 year-olds) and on the island of Montreal (67%). Among francophones, 45% oppose sovereignty while 42% support it. Notably, 73% of Quebecers say their referendum vote is decided in advance and final. Among those who would vote “no,” 79% say their position is firm and definitive, compared to 83% among those who would vote “yes.” Weak Support for First-Mandate ReferendumPaul St-Pierre Plamondon has stated that if the PQ wins the next election, his government would hold a referendum on sovereignty in its first mandate. This proposal faces strong opposition, as 62% of Quebecers oppose it, including 46% who strongly oppose it. Even among PQ voters, support for a first-mandate referendum is only 67%. Among QS voters, 56% oppose the idea, and 92% of PLQ voters and 81% of CAQ voters also oppose it. “There’s a significant gap between electoral support for the PQ and support for its sovereignty project,” Angolano noted. “Many Quebecers appear willing to vote for the PQ without necessarily supporting an immediate referendum on sovereignty.” Leader Impressions: Legault Collapses, Plamondon DominatesQuebecers’ impressions of François Legault are overwhelmingly negative: 75% have an unfavourable impression of the premier (52% very unfavourable), compared to just 12% who have a favourable impression. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon enjoys markedly more positive impressions: 35% of Quebecers have a favourable impression of him (16% very favourable), compared with 43% who are unfavourable. Even among PLQ voters, 6% have a favourable impression of Plamondon. PLQ leadership candidate Charles Milliard remains largely unknown. 36% of Quebecers have a neutral impression of him, and 11% are uncertain. Only 20% have a favourable impression of him. Québec solidaire’s Ruba Ghazal and the PCQ’s Éric Duhaime both receive mostly negative impressions (45% unfavorable for Ghazal, 60% for Duhaime). Methodology:The analysis contained in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on January 9-10, 2026 among a sample of 1,128 adults, aged 18 and over, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender and region according to the 2021 census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population of Quebec. The margin of error for the survey is ±2.9%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher within each subsample. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 40, CPC 37, NDP 11, Bloc 7, Green 3
(TORONTO, 21 January 2026) – The federal Liberals maintain a narrow three-point lead over the Conservatives, while the NDP climbs to 11% support—the first time the party has reached double digits in over a year, a new Pallas Data survey has found. The survey, conducted in partnership with the Next Campaign conference, was conducted on January 10th-12th and surveyed 1120 Canadian adults aged 18 or older, eligible to vote, using PharoVoice, Pallas Data’s AI voice survey platform. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 40% (-1% from Pallas’ poll last month), while the Conservatives have 37% (-1%). The NDP has 11% (+3%), while the Greens have 3% (-1%). The Bloc Québécois has 7% (-1%), with 30% support in Quebec. The poll also reveals deep public concern about artificial intelligence in political campaigns, with nearly three-quarters of Canadians worried that fake AI content will influence the next election. Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoys a net positive approval rating of +8%, though this personal popularity has not yet fully translated into Liberal vote share. “The Liberals should be encouraged by these numbers,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Carney won in 2025 largely because the NDP collapsed to just 6% of the vote. The fact that the Liberals can maintain a national lead even with the NDP recovering to 11% suggests Carney may be compensating for losses on his left flank by winning over centrist and moderate Conservative voters.” The familiar pattern of regional polarization persists, with Conservatives dominating in Alberta and the Prairies, while Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The age divide also remains stark: Liberals lead by 15 points among voters 65 and older, while Conservatives would have a narrow edge if older voters were excluded from the calculation. Carney’s personal brand continues to outpace his party’s vote share. His net approval of +8% suggests room for Liberal growth, particularly in British Columbia, where he enjoys +18% net approval and Ontario, where he sits at +23%. Interestingly, despite the NDP’s recovery to 11%, NDP supporters still give Carney a +20% net approval rating, suggesting these voters remain vulnerable if the next election becomes framed as a two-way race between Carney and Poilievre. Significant Concern About AI The poll reveals widespread concern about the use of artificial intelligence in political campaigns. 72% of Canadians are concerned that the next federal election will be influenced by fake AI content, with 47% saying they are “very concerned.” An even larger majority (73%) disapprove of political parties using AI to make content or contact voters. Perhaps most striking, 82% of respondents report having encountered fake AI content online or on social media. The survey also uncovered evidence of partisan motivated reasoning. When asked about political parties in general, only 13% approve of using AI. However, when asked specifically about their preferred party’s use of the technology, approval jumps to 18%. “This is one of the most methodologically interesting findings we’ve uncovered,” Dr. Angolano noted. “The same technology, the same application—but approval increases by five points when it’s your own team doing it. It’s a textbook example of partisan motivated reasoning.” The survey was conducted using PharoVoice, Pallas Data’s AI-powered voice agents, demonstrating the technology’s capabilities in professional research applications. Methodology: The analysis is based on results of a survey conducted January 10-12, 2026, among a sample of 1,120 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with AI Live Agents on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 44%, Conservative 39%, Greens 9%, OneBC 7%
(TORONTO, 17 December 2025) – A new Pallas Data poll finds the BC NDP maintaining a lead over the Conservatives, though the margin has narrowed since February. Among decided voters, the NDP has 44% (-5% since February), while the BC Conservatives have 39% (-2%). The Greens are at 9% (+1%), and OneBC is at 7%. “The race has tightened considerably since February,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But the choice of Conservative leader could be decisive if an election were to come in British Columbia in 2026.” Conservative Leadership Race Wide Open Among BC Conservative Party members and those interested in membership, the leadership race remains highly competitive. Aaron Gunn leads with 23%, followed by Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 10%, Peter Milobar at 8%, and Caroline Elliott at 8%. However, 44% remain undecided. Regional Splits Favour NDP in Metro Vancouver The NDP maintains a seventeen-point lead in Metro Vancouver (49% to 32% among decided voters) and a sixteen-point lead on Vancouver Island (43% to 27%). The Conservatives lead in the Rest of BC (48% to 36%). The NDP performs significantly better among women voters (52% to 33%) than men (36% to 45%). The Conservatives lead among voters 50-64 (44% to 38%) but trail among seniors 65+ (50% to 34%). Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 11th-13th, 2025 among a sample of 923 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. This poll was commissioned by the Pacific Conservative Foundation. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Data Federal Poll: Political Deadlock as Two Canadas Emerge
(TORONTO, 18 December 2025) – Canada’s political landscape remains frozen in place as two fundamentally incompatible visions of the country’s future have crystallized, with economic patriotism emerging as the defining fault line, a new Pallas Data poll has found. In the second wave of Canada’s Economic Patriotism Index (EPI), Pallas surveyed 1,074 adults across Canada from December 13th-15th, 2025 using PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and IVR. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Federal Voting Intentions Remain Static Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, have 41% support, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, trail at 38%. The NDP has 8% and the Bloc Québécois 8%. “Regarding federal voting intentions, nothing has changed since the election,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Despite Michael Ma’s dramatic defection at the Liberal Christmas Party and rumours of more Conservative MPs crossing the floor, the fundamentals haven’t budged since August.” The Liberals maintain solid leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, but trail in Alberta, the Prairies, and British Columbia. A Liberal victory appears likely, but a majority remains out of reach. Economic Patriotism: An Identity, Not an Opinion The most striking finding from Round 2 of the Economic Patriotism Index is how little has changed despite the holiday shopping season and ongoing trade tensions. The distribution of Canadians across the low, moderate, and high economic patriotism categories is virtually identical to that in August’s results. “When polling data doesn’t move at all over months—especially through major events like the holidays—you’re not measuring an opinion or attitude anymore. You’re measuring an identity,” said Angolano. The Partisan Divide Deepens Economic patriotism splits decisively along party lines: “This creates two solitudes—and I mean that literally,” noted Angolano. “Liberal voters are willing to pay more for Canadian goods and accept lower living standards for sovereignty. Conservative voters want exactly the opposite: cheaper foreign goods, including gasoline, and higher living standards even if it means deeper integration with the United States.” Canadians Still Walking the Walk Despite four months of additional economic pressure, Canadians’ patriotic purchasing behaviours have held remarkably steady: The Generational Divide Economic patriotism increases significantly with age, creating a generational fault line that aligns with partisan preferences. Younger Canadians experiencing acute economic hardship are far less likely to embrace economic patriotism—not because they hate Canada, but because they feel the country has broken its social contract with them. “Younger Canadians don’t feel they have the luxury of being patriotic about a country that’s letting them down, much less making financial sacrifices for it,” said Angolano. Why Nothing Changes Both Carney and Poilievre have their voter segments locked down, and these segments are intractable, immutable, and incommensurate. If you fall in the Liberal camp, you find nothing appealing about Poilievre, and vice versa. Neither leader has made any overtures to voters on the other side. “Poilievre will likely survive his January leadership review because his base is locked. But no one else is interested,” noted Angolano. “And he can’t expand without betraying his core supporters—low economic patriotism is a Conservative value now.” Implications for 2025 and Beyond The data reveal Canada isn’t experiencing normal political competition, but rather a fundamental incompatibility between two visions of the country. “The next election won’t resolve this tension,” said Angolano. “It will simply give us another snapshot of a divided nation that can’t decide which direction it wants to go.” About the Economic Patriotism Index Pallas Data’s Economic Patriotism Index measures Canadians’ willingness to sacrifice prosperity and well-being for economic independence. The index is based on four key questions about: Respondents receive -2 points for each statement they strongly disagreed with, -1 for every statement they somewhat disagreed with, +1 for every statement they somewhat agreed with, and +2 for every statement they strongly agreed with. No points were awarded for neutral responses or “don’t know” answers. Respondents were then categorized as follows: Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 13th-15th among a sample of 1074 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews via PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 18, Green 6
(TORONTO, 18 November 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives have a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll conducted for The Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1,077 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on November 15th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 45%. The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28%, while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 18%. The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 6%. “The PCs continue to hold a commanding lead across most of the province, with particularly strong numbers in Northern Ontario and the GTA,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But the Skills Development Fund scandal is clearly resonating with voters—even among the PC base.” The PCs have significant leads in every region in Ontario. They lead by one point in Toronto (39% to 38%), seven points in the Greater Toronto Area (45% to 38%), and have a commanding twenty-three point lead in Northern Ontario (51% to 28%). They are also ahead in South Central Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Southwestern Ontario. Skills Development Fund Scandal Erodes Trust The poll reveals that the Skills Development Fund controversy has had a substantial impact on public confidence in the Ford government. Just over six in ten Ontarians (61%) say they are concerned about how the provincial government has managed the Skills Development Fund, with 44% saying they are very concerned. More damaging for the government, 63% of Ontarians say the management of the Skills Development Fund has made them less trusting of the Ford government’s handling of public funds. Nearly half (49%) say they are “much less trusting.” “What’s particularly striking is that this concern isn’t limited to opposition supporters,” said Angolano. “46% of PC voters express concern about the fund’s management, and 42% say it has made them less trusting of their own government’s handling of public money.” “This suggests the scandal has penetrated beyond the usual partisan divides and is causing real reputational damage to the Ford brand on fiscal management.” Ontarians are also clear about who should make funding decisions: 55% believe non-political civil servants should decide who receives government funding, compared to just 14% who think an elected minister’s office should have override powers. Even among PC voters, only 22% support ministerial override, while 43% prefer decisions to be left to non-political staff. Highway 401 Tunnel Proposal Meets Wall of Opposition The province’s $9.1 million feasibility study for building a tunnelled expressway under Highway 401 faces overwhelming public opposition. 68% of Ontarians oppose the project, with 59% strongly opposed. Only 17% support the proposal. “The 401 tunnel is Doug Ford’s most unpopular infrastructure proposal that we’ve measured,” said Angolano. “Even among his own supporters, opposition outweighs support 52% to 48%.” Opposition to the tunnel is particularly strong in Toronto (74%), where 66% strongly oppose it, and among NDP voters (87%), Liberal voters (83%), and Green voters (83%). Ontarians Skeptical of Increased Political Donation Limits With legislation being debated to raise the limit for donations to political parties from $3,400 to $5,000, Ontarians show clear resistance. Six in ten (60%) oppose raising the limit, with the primary concern being that it allows the rich to have more influence on politics and policy—a concern cited by 60% of respondents overall. Only 26% support the increase. Among PC voters, support is higher at 42%, but even within the governing party’s base, 39% oppose the increase. “The argument that higher limits would be ‘consistent with other jurisdictions’ isn’t landing with voters,” said Angolano. “The dominant concern is about wealth buying political influence, which speaks to broader anxieties about fairness in the political system.” Just over half of Ontarians (52%) believe current donation limits are “just right,” while 25% think they should be lower and only 8% think they should be higher. Per-Vote Subsidy Proposal Divides Opinion The bill’s proposal to make the publicly funded per-vote subsidy for political parties permanent receives a mixed reception. 28% oppose the measure, 14% support it, 31% neither oppose nor support it, and 27% don’t know enough about it to form an opinion. Support for the per-vote subsidy is strongest among Green voters (21%) and NDP voters (22%), while PC voters are split, with 30% opposing and 22% supporting. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on November 15th, 2025 among a sample of 1,077 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Data Federal Poll: Canadians are warming to AI as a workplace hack, over 40% embracing AI tools for entrepreneurship
(TORONTO, 22 October 2025) – Canadians are warming to artificial intelligence as a workplace tool rather than viewing it as an existential threat, with half expressing no worry about AI taking their jobs and nearly half willing to use AI to quit traditional employment for greater income, a new Pallas Data survey has found. Summary of Findings Between October 12th-16th, Pallas Data surveyed 1,206 Canadian adults aged 18 or older using PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and IVR. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. The poll found that 50% of Canadians are not at all worried that AI and automation could force them to change their jobs or careers in the next five years, with only 22% expressing some level of worry. Meanwhile, 41% of Canadians say they would either definitely or probably quit their current job if they could use AI tools to make the same amount or more money, rising to 49% among Canadians under 35. “This research reveals the emergence of a new class of AI-literate Canadians,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “They use AI often, they tend to be younger, and while they are aware of the potential threats of AI, they also recognize it could be a liberating force that could bring them more wealth.” The survey found widespread AI adoption across Canada:– 62% of Canadians are at least somewhat familiar with AI tools, rising to 74% among those under 35– 19% use AI tools daily, with that number climbing to 26% among Canadians under 35– 38% use AI tools at least a few times per week When asked about AI’s dual nature—both scary and useful —49% of respondents said they would use something that scares them if it could make them significantly more money. Among daily AI users, this jumps to 78%. Canadians hold rather nuanced views on AI’s societal impact. While 53% see AI as equal parts threat and opportunity, only 24% view it as mostly a threat. However, 63% agree that AI is creating a new form of inequality between those who can use it and those who cannot. The poll also revealed political and demographic divides on AI’s economic disruption. While 52% of all Canadians believe that millions of people using AI to quit traditional jobs would be negative for Canada, this drops to 36% among daily AI users. NDP and Bloc voters are more likely to view this trend negatively compared to Liberal and Conservative voters. “AI may well prove to be a disruptor of traditional labour, especially organized labour, as AI might enable a new class of entrepreneurial Canadians,” noted Dr. Angolano. “Both major political parties will need to think long and hard about how to capture this segment of voters, not because they are the future, but because they are the present.” With regard to federal voting intentions, the survey found the Liberals at 37% among all voters (41% among decided and leaning voters), Conservatives at 33% (37%), NDP at 9% (11%), and Bloc Québécois at 6% (6%, 26% in Quebec). Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 12th-16th among a sample of 1,206 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with AI Live Agents and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 38, PLQ 27, PCQ 15, CAQ 11, QS 8
Parti Québécois leads despite majority opposition to sovereignty referendum (TORONTO, 17 September 2025) – The Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, holds an 11-point lead over the Quebec Liberal Party in voting intentions, despite a majority of voters opposing a sovereignty referendum, a Pallas Data poll has found. On September 6, 2025, Pallas conducted a survey of 1,187 adults in Quebec, aged 18 or older and eligible to vote, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has 38%, the Quebec Liberal Party under Pablo Rodriguez has 27%, the Conservative Party of Quebec led by Éric Duhaime has 15%, the Coalition Avenir Québec under François Legault has 11%, and Québec solidaire led by Ruba Ghazal has 8%. “The PQ is widely favoured to win the next election,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “If an election were held today, a PQ government would be the most likely scenario.” PQ Expected to Win by Large Margin When asked which party will win the next Quebec election scheduled for October 5, 2026, regardless of their political preference, 57% believe the PQ will win, compared to 23% for the PLQ and only 8% for the CAQ. This perception crosses partisan lines—even 33% of Liberal voters and 28% of CAQ supporters expect a PQ victory. Majority Opposes Sovereignty and Quick Referendum Despite the PQ’s strong position, a majority of Quebecers (55%) would vote against sovereignty in a referendum, while 35% would vote in favour. Opposition is particularly strong among 35-49 year-olds (64% against) and 50-64 year-olds (61% against), while younger voters aged 18-34 are more divided, with 46% against and 40% in favour. Little Enthusiasm for Immediate Referendum Regarding Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s promise to hold a sovereignty referendum in a PQ government’s first mandate, 64% of voters oppose this idea (49% strongly unfavourable, 15% somewhat unfavourable), while only 32% support it. Even among PQ voters, support is not unanimous—65% back the idea of a quick referendum, but 20% oppose it. Legault Faces Steep Unpopularity Premier François Legault faces dire approval ratings, with 77% holding unfavourable opinions (52% very unfavourable, 25% somewhat unfavourable) compared to only 10% favourable. This unpopularity contrasts with more balanced perceptions of other leaders. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon enjoys 44% favourable opinions against 38% unfavourable, while Pablo Rodriguez scores 23% favourable versus 41% unfavourable. Sharp Linguistic Divide The poll reveals stark linguistic divisions. Among francophones, the PQ dominates with 46% support, followed by the PLQ at 17%. Among non-francophones, it’s reversed: the PLQ captures 63% support versus only 9% for the PQ. This linguistic polarization also manifests in attitudes toward sovereignty: 47% of francophones oppose sovereignty, compared to 82% of non-francophones. Regional Strength for PQ The PQ shows broad regional appeal, leading in the Quebec City region (46%) and the rest of Quebec (46%), while remaining competitive in Montreal, where the PLQ leads 35% to 25%. The party’s strength outside Montreal reflects its traditional base while suggesting potential for broader electoral success. Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on September 6, 2025 among a sample of 1,187 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: Crombie Holds Base But Liberals Face “Vestigial Brand” Crisis
Young voters show declining openness to Liberal Party ahead of leadership review (TORONTO, 10 September 2025) – Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie can maintain her party’s electoral base but faces deeper structural challenges that may hinder any leader’s prospects, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll conducted September 3rd-4th, 2025 that first appeared in The Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1,026 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford have 45%, the Ontario Liberals have 26%, the NDP has 17%, and the Greens have 7%. “Bonnie Crombie can hold the Liberal base,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But the OLP doesn’t have a leadership problem. It has an ‘everything else’ problem.” Age Gap Threatens Long-Term Liberal Prospects The survey revealed a troubling demographic trend for the Liberals. When asked how open they were to voting for the Ontario Liberal Party, net openness varied dramatically by age. Among voters 65 and older, net openness to voting Liberal was +1.1%. Among voters under 35, net openness dropped to -12%. The Liberals trail the PCs by 29 points among 18-34 year-olds and sit in third place behind the NDP in this demographic. “The younger you are, the less likely you are to be open to voting for the Ontario Liberal Party,” said Angolano. “That is terrible news for a party trying to win an election four years from now.” Ford Dominates on Key Leadership Metrics The survey tested four leadership questions: who would be the best premier, best on healthcare, best on the economy, and who respondents would most enjoy sharing a drink with. Premier Ford led on all four measures. On economic leadership—a key focus for the Liberals in the 2025 campaign—twice as many voters trust Ford (42%) as trust Crombie (21%). Ford’s weakest area remains healthcare, where he leads Crombie by just six points (28% to 22%), with NDP leader Marit Stiles close behind at 23%. Split Opinion on Leadership Race Ahead of this weekend’s leadership review, Ontarians are evenly divided on whether the OLP should hold a leadership race. Thirty-five percent oppose a leadership race: 18% because they like Crombie and want her to stay, and 17% because the party doesn’t need more distractions. Thirty-six percent support a race: 14% believe it would invigorate the party, while 22% think the party needs a different leader. The poll found that Liberal supporters themselves show decreasing appetite for leadership change as their commitment to the party increases. Among voters “very open” to supporting the Liberals, 51% oppose a leadership race. “Vestigial Brand” Warning When asked who they would like to see lead the OLP in the next election, Crombie beats all other potential candidates among committed Liberal voters, suggesting she maintains internal party support. However, Angolano warned that the party’s broader challenges transcend leadership questions. “The OLP’s branding strength is not dynamic or even residual: it’s vestigial,” said Angolano. “Like other great vestigial brands, the OLP risks becoming a brand that younger Ontarians recognize but don’t respect—a political party trapped in amber, impressive in the history books but irrelevant at the ballot box.” The analysis suggests Liberal delegates face a critical choice this weekend: whether Crombie can execute the structural and branding changes needed to make the party competitive, or whether to pause rebuilding for a leadership race. “Get it right, and they begin the long climb back to relevance,” said Angolano. “Get it wrong, and they risk becoming Ontario’s vestigial political brand—still around, but no longer mattering.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on September 3rd-4th, 2025 among a sample of 1,026 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Economic Patriotism Index: Liberals Lead as Canadians Embrace Trade Fight
One-third willing to sacrifice prosperity for sovereignty amid Trump tariffs (TORONTO, 5 August 2025) – Canadians are prepared for economic hardship to maintain independence from the United States, with the governing Liberals holding a commanding lead over the Conservatives as trade tensions escalate, a new Pallas Data poll has found. In Canada’s first comprehensive Economic Patriotism Index (EPI), Pallas surveyed 1,301 adults across Canada from July 29th to August 1st, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Federal Voting Intentions Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, have 43% support, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, trail at 38%. The NDP has 8%, the Bloc Québécois 6%, and the Greens 2%. “As Trump imposes a new 35% tariff on Canada, Canadians are rallying around economic sovereignty rather than backing down,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Carney Liberals have significant political capital to spend on this trade fight.” Economic Patriots Fuel Liberal Support The groundbreaking Economic Patriotism Index reveals that 34% of Canadians have “high economic patriotism”—meaning they’re willing to sacrifice prosperity for economic independence. Among these voters, Liberals hold a dominant 59% support compared to just 18% for Conservatives. Conversely, 47% of Conservative voters score as having “low economic patriotism,” compared to only 8% among Liberal supporters. “This creates an existential challenge for the Conservative movement,” said Angolano. “While Poilievre campaigned on ‘Canada First,’ his base appears least willing to pay the price for economic independence.” Canadians Already Walking the WalkThe survey reveals Canadians are already putting patriotism into practice: Most significantly, 54% engage in all three “economic patriotic” purchasing behaviours, suggesting broad readiness to absorb the costs of trade retaliation. Regional and Demographic Divides Alberta shows the lowest economic patriotism (24% high, 42% low), aligning with Conservative strength in the province. Ontario and Quebec exhibit the highest levels of economic patriotism, which benefits Liberal support. Older Canadians (65+) demonstrate the strongest economic patriotism at 47%, while younger voters (18-34) show the least at 28%. Conservative Crisis Over Economic Nationalism The poll exposes a fundamental tension within Conservative ranks. Despite Stephen Harper’s declaration during the last federal election that he would “impoverish the country” rather than see Canada annexed, and Trump’s dismissal of Poilievre as “no friend” of his, Conservative voters remain the least economically patriotic. “The Conservatives face a choice between embracing Danielle Smith’s accommodating approach or Harper and Doug Ford’s more confrontational stance,” noted Angolano. “Their base currently stands at odds with both their leader’s rhetoric and their party’s founding principles.” Implications for Trade Strategy With Trump’s tariffs set to escalate, the poll suggests Canadians may be more resilient to economic pressure than anticipated. The Liberal government appears well-positioned to pursue alternative trade relationships and infrastructure projects that reduce dependence on the United States. “This survey establishes a crucial baseline,” said Angolano. “As tariffs begin to bite, we’ll track whether Canadian resolve holds or whether economic reality trumps patriotic sentiment in future months.” About the Economic Patriotism Index Pallas Data’s Economic Patriotism Index measures Canadians’ willingness to sacrifice prosperity and well-being for economic independence. The index is based on four key questions about: Respondents receive -2 points for each statement they strongly disagreed with, -1 for every statement they somewhat disagreed with, +1 for every statement they somewhat agreed with, and +2 for every statement they strongly agreed with. No points were awarded for neutral responses or “don’t know” answers. Respondents were then categorized as follows: Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on July 29th-August 1st, 2025 among a sample of 1,301 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using AI Live Agents and Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 29, NDP 21, Green 6
Majority oppose Bill 5 despite PC lead (TORONTO, 30 June 2025) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a fourteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, despite majority opposition to the government’s controversial “Special Economic Zones” legislation, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1,080 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 28th-29th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford have 43% (+2% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 29% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 21% (unchanged). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 6% (-1%).” The Ford government continues to be in cruise control,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “If an election were held today, a PC majority with the NDP in opposition would be the likeliest scenario.” The PCs have significant leads in most regions of the province, most notably Northern Ontario (56%) and Southwestern Ontario (49%). Toronto is more competitive, where the Liberals trail the PCs by just seven points (35% to 28%), with the NDP close behind at 26%. Bill 5 Opposition Doesn’t Translate to Electoral Damage The survey asked respondents about their views on Ontario’s Bill 5, the Protect Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act, which allows the government to establish “Special Economic Zones” and waive provincial and local laws within them. A total of 58% said they opposed the legislation (35% strongly opposed, 23% somewhat opposed), while 22% said they supported it. Opposition is strongest among supporters of the opposition parties, but there is also significant opposition from PC voters themselves (34% of PC voters opposed the bill, while 41% supported it). “They understand what their base wants,” said Angolano. “These are the same people who have PC in the last three elections, and the Ford government knows how to keep them happy.” “Conversely, voters who are unhappy with the bill likely have been unhappy with Ford for three election cycles now, so it is unlikely he is alienating a new subset of voters with Bill 5.” The poll also tested the federal government’s similar Bill C-5, the One Canadian Economy Act. Support was higher for the federal legislation, with 31% in favour and 46% opposed. Project Delays: Government Gets the Blame When asked what factor delays projects the most in Ontario, 40% of respondents blamed the government itself, while 25% cited environmental rules and regulations, and 19% pointed to the requirements for Indigenous consultation. About one-third of respondents (33%) agreed that large projects, such as mines and highways, take too long to be approved in Ontario, while 39% disagreed with this statement. Room for Opinion Change Despite current opposition, the poll suggests public opinion on the legislation could shift. When asked to describe their overall view of both bills, 35% of respondents said the measures “could be useful tools, but only if they are used responsibly by the federal and provincial governments.” Only 12% said the laws were “necessary tools that can boost the economy right now,” while 14% said they were “necessary tools to help make Ontario and Canada more competitive against the United States.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on June 28th-29th, 2025 among a sample of 1,080 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.