(TORONTO, April 17, 2026) – The Progressive Conservatives under Premier Doug Ford hold a clear lead in Ontario, but a deeply divided electorate on housing policy and a wide-open Liberal leadership race are reshaping the political picture ahead of the next provincial election.
In a survey conducted for The Trillium, Pallas Data surveyed 1,084 Ontario adults aged 18 and over and eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on April 8, 2026. The margin of error is ±3% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs sit at 40%, followed by the Ontario Liberal Party at 31%, the NDP under Marit Stiles at 22%, the Greens under Mike Schreiner at 6%, and other parties at 2%.
“While Ford leads,
this is not as commanding position of a position as it was last year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
The Regional Picture
The North is Ford’s strongest region: the PCs take 59% of decided and leaning voters there, with the NDP at 19% and the OLP at 14%. The GTA tilts PC at 42%, with the OLP at 34% and the NDP at 17%.
Toronto is the most competitive region in the province. The PCs and OLP are tied at 34%, with the NDP at 26%. Eastern Ontario sits close to the provincial average, with the PCs leading at 34%, the OLP at 32%, and the NDP at 27%. The Southwest goes PC at 41%.
Gender and Age
Male voters break PC at 45%, compared with 35% among women. The OLP leads among women at 34%, compared to 27% among men.
Among 18- to 34-year-old voters, the PC lead narrows: PCs at 34%, OLP at 31%, NDP at 29%. The 50-to-64 cohort goes PC at 46%. Voters 65 and older go PC at 43%.
“The gender gap is real, and the age gap is the one to watch,” Angolano said. “Younger voters are not locking into the PC column. Housing is the issue that moves them, and Ford has not closed the deal on that file.”
Housing: A Coalition Built on a Paradox
Pallas asked Ontarians whether they preferred increasing housing supply by cutting development charges and speeding up construction, or protecting renters and expanding social housing. The province splits nearly evenly: 40% prefer supply, 42% prefer protection.
The party breakdown tells a sharper story. Sixty-four percent of PC decided and leaning voters prefer the supply solution. NDP voters go 65% for protection. OLP voters go 60% for protection.
PC voters are the backbone of the supply coalition and, at the same time, the least likely of any partisan group to believe that supply lowers prices. Only 26% of PC voters think building more affordable housing helps lower prices for everyone, compared to 50% of NDP voters and 46% of OLP voters. Thirty-four percent of PC voters believe affordable housing actually drives up market-rate prices by passing construction costs to other buyers. This is the highest of any party.
“PC voters back the supply solution because they oppose social housing, not because they believe the market fixes affordability,” Angolano said. “Sixty-four percent support supply. Only 26% think it lowers prices. They are not backing the destination. They are choosing the road because they hate where the other road goes.”
Fifty-eight percent of Ontarians say they support building more affordable housing. Support drops by 23 points if it means a tax increase, by 25 points if neighbourhood character would change, and by 25 points if it means fewer parking spots in the area.
Asked whether they would support a new development in their neighbourhood if 25% of units were allocated to affordable housing, 47% said they would support it, and 30% said they would oppose. PC voters opposed at 51%. NDP voters supported at 72%. OLP voters supported at 64%.
The HST Cut
Ontarians are split on the Ford-Carney measure announced March 30, which removes the 13% HST on new homes priced under $1 million with a partial rebate up to $1.85 million. Forty-one percent support the measure, and 23% oppose it.
The messaging picture is less settled. Forty-six percent say the cut is a giveaway to wealthy buyers that does not guarantee lower prices for average families. 28% say it is a necessary move to lower costs and jump-start construction. NDP voters go 65% for the giveaway framing. OLP voters go 54%. PC voters are the only group where the pro-cut framing wins, at 46%.
Renters looking to buy are the most supportive group: 62% support the measure and 35% call it a necessary move to lower costs – the highest of any housing group.
“Ford won the argument with the one group the HST cut was designed to reach,” Angolano said. “The problem is the broader public has absorbed the opposition’s messaging. Nearly half of Ontarians think it’s a giveaway. That is a communications failure, not a policy failure.”
Methodology
The analysis contained in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on April 8, 2026, among a sample of 1,084 adults aged 18 and over, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is ±3.0% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher within each subsample. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
