(TORONTO, October 28, 2026) – Pallas Data was the first to publish the most accurate result in the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. Our final poll, conducted on October 24, had Olivia Chow at 53% and Brad Bradford at 43%. Unofficial results show Chow winning with 54% to Bradford’s 41%.
Pallas was within two points of every candidate’s final share, comfortably inside the poll’s margin of error.
A steady read on a noisy race
In the campaign’s final two weeks, several polls showed a tied race or a Bradford lead. Pallas never did. Chow led in every Pallas poll from March to election day, and our final survey captured the late shift as Bradford’s mid-October gains faded and Chow’s lead grew from 6 points to 10.
Here is how our Toronto polling moved among decided voters:
| Poll | Chow | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| March | 47% | 38% |
| August | 50% | 39% |
| October 14 | 52% | 46% |
| October 24 | 53% | 43% |
Why an unhappy city re-elected its mayor
Our final poll also explained the result. Torontonians were not happy. 48% were dissatisfied with Chow’s performance and 50% with the City Council. Undecided voters were the most negative, with 58% dissatisfied with the mayor. But that dissatisfaction did not translate into a vote for change.
“Nobody fell back in love with Olivia Chow this week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Enough voters just decided the city is doing well enough that changing mayors is not worth the risk.”
Methodology: The final Pallas Toronto poll was conducted on October 24, 2026 among 608 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey used automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cellular phones and was weighted by age and gender according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is +/- 4%, at the 95% confidence level. Election results are unofficial. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
