Pallas Toronto Poll: Chow 52%, Bradford 46% as Mayoral Race Tightens
(TORONTO, October 16, 2026) – Olivia Chow still leads the race for mayor of Toronto, but Brad Bradford has gained ground since Chris Alexander dropped out, according to a new Pallas Data poll conducted October 14. Among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow has 52% (+2% since August), and Brad Bradford has 46% (+7%). Another 3% back a different candidate. Undecided voters have fallen to 12%, half of what they were in August. “Chow is still ahead, but the cushion she had in August is mostly gone,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Geography divides the city. Chow leads in Old Toronto (61% to 37%) and Scarborough (57% to 42%). Bradford leads by 20 points in North York (59% to 39%). Etobicoke and York is tied, with Chow at 47% and Bradford at 46%. East York is close as well, at 50% to 48%. Women favour Chow 56% to 43%, while men lean Bradford 49% to 47%. Voters aged 18 to 34 are split down the middle, with each candidate at 49%. Chow leads among voters aged 35 to 49 (55% to 41%) and those 65 and older (56% to 43%). Bradford leads among voters 50 to 64 (50% to 47%). “Bradford has collected most of the voters who think the city is on the wrong track. What he hasn’t done is give anyone else a reason to come over,” said Angolano. Toronto Still Unhappy With Its Mayor and Council Views of the mayor have barely moved all year. 39% are satisfied with Chow’s performance and 49% are dissatisfied, almost exactly where she stood in March. City Council fares worse, with 22% satisfied and 54% dissatisfied. 46% say the city is headed in the wrong direction and 39% say it is on the right track. Among Bradford’s voters, 84% say the city is on the wrong track. 63% say the City is not doing enough to make Toronto more affordable for everyday residents, and 57% say it is not doing enough on housing. Still, the share who think the City is doing enough on housing has risen to 22%, from 18% in August and 13% in March. Torontonians are split on how to fix housing. 38% prefer increasing supply by cutting development charges and speeding up construction. 35% would rather protect renters and expand social housing, and 27% are unsure. Bradford’s voters prefer the supply approach 56% to 11%. Chow’s voters prefer renter protection 55% to 24%. Majority Supports Bike Lane Removal 52% of Torontonians support the Ontario government’s removal of bike lanes on Bloor Street West and its plans to remove them on Yonge Street and University Avenue. 41% are opposed. Support and opposition line up with the mayoral race. 88% of Bradford voters back the removal, and 72% of Chow voters oppose it. Old Toronto is the only region where a majority (57%) is opposed. “Bradford is on the popular side of this one, but it’s popular mostly with people already voting for him,” said Angolano. Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 14th, 2026 among a sample of 732 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age and gender according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.6%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: Conservative 43, NDP 38, Green 11, OneBC 5, and Doerkson Leads Eby on Best Premier
(TORONTO, October 13, 2026) – The BC Conservatives lead the NDP by five points with eleven days to go in the provincial election campaign, according to a new Pallas Data poll. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson have 43%. The BC NDP under Premier David Eby has 38%. The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 11%; OneBC under Dallas Brodie is at 5%; CentreBC under Elenore Sturko is at 2%; and another party is at 1%. “Five points with 11 days left is a lead the NDP can still close,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The problem is that Eby sits below 40% and most voters think the province is on the wrong track.” Metro Vancouver is a tie, with the Conservatives and NDP both at 41%. The Conservatives lead 51% to 37% in the Rest of BC. Vancouver Island is a four-way contest: Conservatives 35%, NDP 33%, Greens 18% and OneBC 13%, the best OneBC number in any region. Men go Conservative, 46% to 37%. Women are split, with 41% Conservative and 39% NDP, and 14% back the Greens, compared with 9% of men. The Conservatives lead every age group except 50 to 64, where they and the NDP are level at 36%. Among voters 18 to 34, the Conservatives have 51% to the NDP’s 35%, but only 46 interviews sit behind that number before weighting, so treat it gently. They lead 42% to 40% among voters 35 to 49 and 45% to 41% among those 65 and older. The 50-to-64 group is the most scattered, with 16% behind the Greens and 9% behind OneBC. “Younger voters are going Conservative in large numbers,” said Angolano. “Older voters are the most up for grabs, with a quarter of them behind the Greens or OneBC.” Doerkson Leads Eby on Best Premier Asked which leader would make the best premier, regardless of how they might vote, 35% of all voters picked Doerkson. Eby has 29%, Lowan 13%, Brodie 6% and Sturko 2%. Another 5% chose none of the above and 10% did not know. Doerkson also leads in Metro Vancouver, 36% to 34%. Eby is strongest among voters 65 and older (37%) and weakest among those 18 to 34 (18%), where Doerkson has 38% and Lowan 24%. Each of the two main leaders holds 78% of their own party’s voters. Lowan holds 66% of Green voters, and 9% of NDP voters pick her as best premier. Undecided voters lean Eby over Doerkson, 22% to 13%, though 46% of them have no pick. Voters Think BC Is Headed in the Wrong Direction A majority of British Columbians (53%) say the province is heading in the wrong direction. Another 32% say the province is headed in the right direction and 15% are not sure. Wrong-direction sentiment peaks among voters 18 to 34 (62%) and on Vancouver Island (58%). Voters 65 and older are closest to even, at 43% wrong and 39% right. Opinion follows party lines. NDP voters say right direction, 71% to 9%. Conservative voters say wrong direction, 86% to 7%, and OneBC voters 90% to 0%. Green voters lean wrong, 53% to 34%. Undecided voters mostly cannot say (48%). “Eby is asking for another term with a majority of voters saying the province is going the wrong way and more of them picking his main opponent as premier,” said Angolano. “He has 11 days to move one of those numbers.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 10th-11th, 2026 among a sample of 513 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 29, PLQ 24, PCQ 20, CAQ 15, QS 11
(TORONTO, October 4, 2026) – Quebecers look set to elect a Parti Québécois minority government on Monday, according to Pallas Data’s final poll of the campaign. The PQ leads the Liberals by five points, and Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives have climbed past the governing CAQ into third. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 29% (-1%), the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard has 24% (+1%), the Parti conservateur du Québec under Duhaime has 20% (+3%), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 15% (-4%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 11% (+1%). Other parties total 1%. Changes are from our previous wave, fielded September 25-26. The PCQ was at 15% in our first poll of September, when the CAQ was at 24%. “The PQ will almost certainly form the next government. A minority is the likelier result, but a majority is not out of reach if turnout breaks their way and their campaign organization outperforms the other parties,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Where the Vote Is The PCQ has led the Quebec City region for a fifth straight wave. Duhaime’s party has 35% (+2%), ahead of the PQ at 24% and the CAQ at 20% (-4%). The Liberals have 15%. Outside Montreal and Quebec City, the PQ leads at 32%, with the PCQ second at 24% and the CAQ under 20%. In the Montreal suburbs, the PCQ has 18%, behind the PQ at 33% and the Liberals at 29%. On the Island of Montreal, the Liberals lead with 33%. The PCQ runs second in both language groups. Among francophones, the PQ leads at 36%, with the PCQ at 19%, narrowly ahead of the Liberals at 18% and the CAQ at 16%. Among non-Francophones, the Liberals have 47%, the PCQ is second at 26%, and the PQ has 5%. “The PCQ have run an excellent campaign according to many pundits, and it reflects in this poll. Duhaime’s team is second among francophones, second among non-francophones, and first in Quebec City. No single demographic carries the PCQ vote, and that makes it durable,” continued Angolano. Plamondon leads on best premier but with low favourability ratings Asked which leader would make the best premier, 28% pick Plamondon, 21% Milliard, 18% Duhaime, and 12% each Ghazal and Fréchette. Another 5% say none of them and 4% are unsure. The favourability ratings tell a different story. Plamondon’s net rating is -20% (34% favourable, 54% unfavourable). Duhaime’s net rating is -26% (30% favourable, 56% unfavourable). Milliard at -3 and Ghazal at +1 are the only leaders close to even, though a third of voters are neutral on Milliard. Fréchette is at -46 (19% favourable, 64% unfavourable). Even among CAQ voters, her net rating is only +20. “Plamondon is leading with a face more voters dislike than like. Voters are choosing the party over the man, and his own ratings are likely what stands between the PQ and a majority,” Angolano said. Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,137 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on October 3, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Responses were statistically weighted using 2021 Census demographic data. Vote intention figures are for the 1,114 decided and leaning respondents. The margin of error for the full sample is ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20 (95% confidence level). Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Mississauga Poll: Parrish 34, Crombie 25, Tedjo 21, Damerla 14
(TORONTO, October 3, 2026) – Carolyn Parrish has a nine-point lead according to a new poll from Pallas Data, with 28% of voters still undecided three weeks before the October 26th election. Among decided and leaning voters, Parrish has 34% (+2), followed by former mayor Bonnie Crombie at 25% (-2), Alvin Tedjo at 21% (+2), Dipika Damerla at 14% (+2) and another candidate at 7% (-3). The survey was conducted on September 30th and October 1st among a sample of 503 eligible Mississauga voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.4% at the 95% confidence level. “Parrish is ahead because the main opposition vote is divided between Bonnie Crombie and Alvin Tedjo,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “She might be in trouble if that vote coalesces around one candidate, but Crombie and Tedjo are performing well enough in their own right and maintain their share of the vote.” Where the votes are coming from Parrish leads with men, 39% to Crombie’s 28%. Women split four ways, with Parrish at 28%, Tedjo at 23%, Crombie at 22% and Damerla at 20%. Damerla draws nearly three times as much support from women as from men (7%). Parrish leads in every age group but one. Among voters 65 and older, Crombie is ahead 33% to 32%, within the margin of error. Her weakest group is voters 35 to 49, at 17%. Tedjo also does better with older voters, at 24% among those 50 to 64 and 25% among those 65 and older, against 18% and 19% under 50. Damerla runs the other way: 16% with 18-to-34-year-olds, 18% with 35-to-49-year-olds and 9% with seniors. Her opponents are spread across three candidates in those groups, each between 16% and 22%. Voters 50 to 64 are closer, with Parrish at 32%, Crombie at 26% and Tedjo at 24%. “Crombie and Tedjo are both stronger with older voters, while younger voters haven’t settled on an alternative to Parrish,” Angolano said. “That is the gap either of them has to close.” What comes next The number of undecided voters remains high at 28%, down from 33% in the previous Pallas Mississauga poll. One note of caution. This poll was completed Thursday night, as the mayoral debate was ending, which made headlines for how heated it was. Therefore, the results predate any reaction to it. “It was a raucous debate, and we don’t know yet how voters took it,” Angolano said. “What this poll shows is where the race stood going in, with more than a quarter of voters undecided.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted September 30-October 1, 2026, among a sample of 503 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Mississauga and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 30, PLQ 23, CAQ 19, PCQ 17, QS 10
(TORONTO, September 28, 2026) – The Parti Québécois enters the final week of Quebec’s election with a seven-point lead, and the CAQ has slipped to third behind the Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. The fifth wave of Pallas Data’s Quebec election tracking, fielded September 25-26 among 1,192 adults, shows the CAQ down four points in a week, with the Conservatives now within a point. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 30% (+2% since last week). The Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard follows at 23% (+1%), then the CAQ under Christine Fréchette at 19% (-3%). The Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime is at 17% (+1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 10% (-1%). The CAQ and Liberals had been level for two straight weeks. Milliard’s party is now four points clear. “A three-point drop in a week for the CAQ opens the door for the PQ to secure a win next week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PQ will form the next government. The only question is whether it will be a majority or a minority.” Montreal The PQ retook the lead in Montreal’s suburbs a week ago after the Liberals had briefly led there, and this week it pulled further ahead: 35% (+4%), against 21% for the Liberals (-2%) and 20% for the CAQ (-4%). Milliard’s real strength is downtown. The Liberals hold 46% on the Island of Montreal (+10%) and 53% among non-francophone voters (+2%). Quebec City and the regions The PCQ has topped the Quebec City region for four straight waves and sits at 33% this week (+2%). The CAQ and PQ are tied behind it at 24%, with the PQ down five points from last week. Outside the Montreal and Quebec City regions, the PCQ runs second at 25%, behind the PQ’s 33% and ahead of the CAQ’s 19%. “It looks as though Eric Duhaime and the Conservatives will accomplish their goal of winning seats in the National Assembly,” said Angolano. “Their goal now is to win 12 seats and gain official party status, and it looks like they might be on course to accomplish that.” Voters 65 and older The CAQ led among voters 65 and older through most of the campaign. That lead was gone last week, and it hasn’t returned. The PQ has 31% with this group (+1%), the CAQ 28% (-1%), and the Liberals 26%. “Older voters are the most dependable voters in Quebec, and the CAQ can’t count on them anymore,” Angolano said. “That was supposed to be its cushion, and now those voters have either flocked to the PQ or the Liberals.” Leader ratings and best premier Plamondon’s net favourability rose from -13% to -1%, the biggest move of the five leaders. Ghazal went from -2% to +3%, Duhaime from -30% to -25%, and Fréchette from -35% to -33%. Milliard slipped from -7% to -13%. On best premier, Plamondon leads at 32% (+3%). Fréchette moves up to second at 18% (+2%), ahead of Milliard at 17% (-2%). Duhaime is at 14% (+1%), and Ghazal is at 8% (-5%). “Plamondon is 14 points clear of the next leader on best premier with a week left,” Angolano said. “Nobody else in this race has the time to close that.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on a survey of 1,192 Quebec adults conducted by Pallas Data on September 25-26, 2026. Interviews were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. Results were weighted by age, gender, and region according to 2021 census figures, and the sample is intended to represent Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is ±2.8%, at a 95% confidence level, higher for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 28, PLQ 22, CAQ 22, PCQ 16, QS 11
(TORONTO, September 20, 2026) – The Parti Québécois gained just a single point on the ballot this week, but underneath that number is a much bigger shift in its favour, a new Pallas Data poll has found. The fourth wave of Pallas Data’s Quebec election tracking, fielded September 19 among 1,122 adults, shows the CAQ losing its grip on the one group it could count on most, while Christine Fréchette’s personal standing collapses beneath her. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 28% (+1% since last week), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 22% (-1%), and the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard also has 22% (-1%), the two still tied as they were last week. The Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime sits at 16%, unchanged, and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal holds 11%, also unchanged. “The lesson is sometimes the topline voting intention numbers don’t always tell the full story,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Despite the PQ only gaining a point from last week, they have rebounded in the Montreal suburbs, and have the narrowest of leads among voters over 65.” “It’s Advantage PQ with two weeks left in the election.” The suburbs flip Last week’s poll had the Liberals leading outright in Montreal’s suburbs, 30% to the PQ’s 24%. That lasted exactly one week. The PQ is back on top there now, at 31%, with the CAQ second at 24% and the Liberals down to 23%. Milliard’s remaining strength is concentrated on the Island of Montreal, where the Liberals stay dominant at 36%, and among non-francophone voters, where they hold 51%. The PCQ, meanwhile, is having a steadier month. It’s led the Quebec City region outright for three straight waves now (33% two weeks ago, 31% last week, 31% this week), with the CAQ a distant second at 25% and the PQ at 29%. Three weeks on top of the same region is enough to start translating into National Assembly seats if it holds through election day. The CAQ’s lead with seniors is gone For the past two waves, the CAQ has held a wide lead among voters 65 and older, the group that turns out to vote in the highest numbers of any age cohort. That lead has evaporated. The CAQ sits at 29% among voters 65-plus this week, statistically tied with the PQ’s 30%. A party can absorb losing a point of overall support far more easily than it can absorb losing its hold on the electorate’s most reliable voters. If this holds, it matters more on election day than the topline number suggests. “This slippage is the most important data point in this poll,” Angolano said. “Voters over the age of 65 are usually the group most likely to vote. Because the CAQ had been leading with this group throughout the entire election, they were looking to carry a turnout advantage heading into the polls.” “But that advantage is gone.” Leader favourability: Fréchette falls, everyone else climbs Comparing this week’s leader ratings to the wave from two weeks ago, four of the five leaders improved their net favourability. Fréchette didn’t. Her net rating fell from -18 % to -35%, a seventeen-point drop and the sharpest move of anyone in the poll. Milliard climbed from -23% to -7%, Ghazal from -16% to -2%, Plamondon from -25% to -13%, and Duhaime from -36% to -30%. Plamondon’s own vote share hasn’t moved with his favourability, but Fréchette’s slide lines up closely with what happened to her on the best-premier question this week. Best premier: Plamondon pulls back ahead, Fréchette falls to third Last week, Plamondon and Fréchette were dead even on who would make the best premier, both at 23%. That tie didn’t survive the week. Plamondon is back out front alone at 29%, and Fréchette has dropped to third, at 16%, passed by Milliard, who’s climbed to 19%. Fréchette running behind the leader of a party her own CAQ is tied with in vote share is the clearest sign yet that her personal standing has become a weaker asset for the CAQ than the ballot number alone suggests. Ghazal and Duhaime round out the field, tied at 13%. Methodology The analysis in this report is based on a survey of 1,122 Quebec adults conducted by Pallas Data on September 19, 2026. Interviews were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. Results were weighted by age, gender, and region according to 2021 census figures, and the sample is intended to represent the adult population of Quebec. The margin of error is ±2.9%, at a 95% confidence level, higher for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Vote-intention and regional comparisons are to Pallas Data’s wave of September 13, 2026; favourability comparisons are to the wave of September 6, 2026; best-premier comparisons are to the wave of September 13, 2026, the last time that question was asked.
Pallas Mississauga Poll: Parrish 32, Crombie 27, Tedjo 19, Damerla 12
(TORONTO, September 14, 2026) – Mississauga’s mayoral race is a genuine two-way contest heading into the fall campaign, with incumbent Carolyn Parrish holding a narrow edge over Bonnie Crombie, according to a new poll from Pallas Data. Among decided and leaning voters, Parrish sits at 32%, followed by Crombie at 27%, Alvin Tedjo at 19%, Dipika Damerla at 12%, and another candidate at 10%. A third of all respondents remain undecided, meaning the race is still very much in motion with six weeks to go before the October 26th vote. “Parrish is ahead, but Crombie is still very much competitive here,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “A five-point lead with a third of voters undecided is a good place to be in, but definitely not insurmountable.” Where the votes are coming from Parrish’s advantage is built on men and older voters. Among decided and leaning voters, she leads Crombie 36% to 31% with men, and holds a wide margin among voters 65 and older, 38% to 28%. Crombie’s strongest group is voters aged 50 to 64, where she leads Parrish 36% to 32%, and among women, again trailing Parrish by only four points, 24% to 28%. Damerla draws her strongest support from women, where she reaches 17%, more than double her showing among men. Tedjo’s support is spread fairly evenly across age groups, peaking with voters 35 to 49 at 23%. “The gender split here matters more than the topline number,” Angolano said. “Crombie needs to consolidate women voters if she wants to close this gap.” Younger voters remain the most fractured segment of the electorate. Among 18-to-34-year-olds who have decided or are leaning, Parrish leads with 27%, Crombie sits at 25%, Tedjo at 19%. Fourteen percent say they’ll vote for another candidate not listed: on par with the 15% who say the same among 35-to-49-year-olds, and well above the roughly 5% seen in every age bracket 50 and up. This is also the age group with the smallest sample in the poll, so the numbers should be read with that caveat. What comes next With five weeks of campaigning still ahead, the size of the undecided pool is the single biggest variable in this race. At 33% of all voters, it’s larger than the combined support of three of the five named candidates. How that group breaks, and whether it breaks at all, will likely decide whether Parrish’s current lead holds or Crombie closes it. Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted September 9-11, 2026, among a sample of 576 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Mississauga and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 27, CAQ 23, PLQ 23, PCQ 16, QS 11
(TORONTO, September 13, 2026) – The Quebec election tightened considerably this week, with the Parti Québécois still in front but its cushion over its rivals nearly gone, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 27% (-2%), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette sits at 23% (-1%), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has climbed to 23% (+3%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime is at 16% (+1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal holds steady at 11% (no change). “The PQ went from a comfortable lead to a four-point margin over two different parties in the space of a week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “They don’t have room to give up much more ground and still win the election.” The Liberals find some footing Milliard’s party gained three points province-wide, and the gains are concentrated exactly where a party needs them if it wants seats: the Island of Montreal, where the PLQ holds 37% against the PQ’s 21% and a fourth-place CAQ at 11%, and the Montreal RMR suburbs, where the Liberals now lead outright at 30%, ahead of the PQ’s 24% and the CAQ’s 20%. That rebound comes with a caveat. Just under one in three voters (29%) say the Liberals have run the worst campaign of any party so far, more than double the next-closest party. Voters appear willing to reward the Liberals in the polls without giving Milliard credit for how he’s gotten there. “Milliard’s numbers are moving in one direction and his campaign reviews are moving in the other,” Angolano said. Duhaime still leads the Quebec City region Outside Montreal, little has changed. The PCQ continues to lead outright in the Quebec City region at 31%, with the CAQ a distant second at 24% and the PQ at 20%. The PLQ is down to 14% there. Two straight weeks now with Duhaime’s party on top in the capital region is enough to translate into National Assembly seats if the pattern holds through election day. The PQ, for its part, remains dominant outside the major urban centres, at 34% in the rest of Quebec against the CAQ’s 27% and the PLQ’s 13%. That’s the PQ’s floor, and it’s a wide one, but it’s not growing. A dead heat for best premier When Quebecers were last asked who would make the best premier, Plamondon held a seven-point edge over Fréchette. That gap has closed entirely: both now sit at 23%. Milliard trails at 18%, Duhaime at 15%, and Ghazal at 9%. “Plamondon spent the first two weeks of this campaign as the clear front-runner on that question,” Angolano said. “Now his lead has shrunk and he needs to find some momentum to put some distance between himself and the other parties.” Who’s running the best campaign? 26% of respondents say the CAQ are running the best campaign, ahead of the PQ at 22% and the PCQ at 17%. Québec solidaire sits at 13%, and the Liberals bring up the rear at 7%, an unusual result for a party that just gained three points in vote intention. The worst-campaign numbers tell the inverse story: 29% point to the Liberals, more than twice the share naming any other party. Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,085 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on September 12, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 29, CAQ 24, PLQ 20, PCQ 15, QS 11
(TORONTO, September 6, 2026) – The Quebec election remains in a deadlock, with every party sitting within a point or two of where it stood in last week’s wave, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 29% (no change from last week), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 24% (no change), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has 20% (-2%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime has 15% (-1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 11% (+2%). “No party really moved this week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Everybody has a floor they can count on, and another week of campaigning didn’t create momentum for anyone.” Regional breakdown The regional map looks almost identical to last week. The PCQ still leads outright in Quebec City, at 33%, ahead of the CAQ’s 27% and the PQ’s 26%. The PLQ falls to single digits there, at 8%. In Montreal’s suburbs, the PQ has a slight edge over the CAQ, 32% to 30%, with the PLQ well back at 16%. On the Island of Montreal, the Liberals remain dominant at 40%, with the PQ a distant second at 19% and the CAQ still stuck in fourth at 12%. Fréchette’s government still underwater, but her coalition holds Six in ten Quebecers (61%) say they’re dissatisfied with the performance of the Fréchette government, compared with 21% who are satisfied. That dissatisfaction cuts across every region and both language groups. It isn’t touching her own voters, though. 73% of CAQ supporters say they’re satisfied with her government’s performance, up from 61% in August, while just 14% are dissatisfied. Leader favourability: Fréchette climbs, Plamondon falls Minority government is still the most likely outcome Pallas doesn’t do seat projections, but this week’s numbers are nearly identical to last week’s, so Quebec is still headed toward a minority government. “The prognosis is the same: the most likely outcome is a PQ minority government.” The PCQ has now led outright in the Quebec City region for two straight weeks in our election polling, climbing to 33% this week from 30% last week, while the Liberals have fallen to single digits there. “Eric Duhaime is consolidating his base in Quebec City and looks well placed to pick up seats for the PCQ.” Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,100 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on September 5, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 29, CAQ 24, PLQ 22, PCQ 16, QS 9
(TORONTO, 30 August 2026) – Quebec’s election campaign has opened with the Parti Québécois still in front, but the real story is behind Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The Coalition avenir Québec has climbed back into second place, and the Quebec Liberal Party has lost a third of the support it held in May, according to a new Pallas Data poll. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 29% (no change since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in May), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 24% (+5%), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has 22% (-6%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime has 16% (+2%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 9% (+1%). “The Quebec election has started, and the CAQ is finding new signs of life as the Trump tariff threats begin to take hold,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Regional and language breakdown The CAQ’s recovery is concentrated in the suburbs and the regions. In Montreal’s suburbs, the CAQ pulls 29%, nearly even with the PQ’s 28% and well ahead of the PLQ’s 17%. Outside Montreal and Quebec City, the CAQ sits at 23%, again running close to the PQ. On the Island of Montreal, still the Liberals’ strongest ground, the CAQ remains a distant fourth at 9%. The PCQ’s best result is in Quebec City, where Duhaime leads outright at 30%, ahead of the PQ’s 25% and the CAQ’s 22%. The PLQ falls to single digits there, at 8%. The PCQ also shows the widest gender gap of any party. Among men, Duhaime’s party draws 22% of the vote. Among women, it draws 8%. Age splits the electorate along familiar lines. Voters 65 and older back the CAQ at 34%, ahead of the PQ at 31%. Voters 18 to 34 favour the PQ at 29%, with QS drawing its strongest result in any age group at 17%, compared with just 2% among seniors. “The same dynamic that saved the federal Liberals last year might be developing here in Quebec.” Best party leader for the tariff crisis Asked which party leader would be best placed to guide Quebec through the crisis over American tariffs, 32% named Fréchette, 23% named Plamondon, 13% named Milliard, 13% named Duhaime, and 6% named Ghazal. Twelve percent didn’t know. Fréchette’s number runs well ahead of her party’s vote share, and her crossover appeal is the strongest of any leader tested. Ninety-six percent of CAQ voters pick her, but so do 15% of PLQ voters and 11% of QS voters. Plamondon holds 76% of his own PQ voters on this question but draws less support from outside his coalition. Milliard’s position is weaker: only 61% of his own PLQ voters name him, with the rest split between undecided and the other leaders. “This isn’t quite Elbows Up 2.0. Quebec voters trust Fréchette the most to lead through the tariff crisis, and that trust is spilling over into stronger CAQ support among voters over 50.” Seat outlook Pallas doesn’t do seat projections, but the regional pattern points to a fractured National Assembly if the numbers hold. “If the election were held today, this would be a PQ minority government, and one of the most fractured National Assemblies in Quebec’s history. The Liberals would still pick up some seats, the Conservatives would establish a beachhead in the Quebec City region, and the CAQ would be saved from oblivion.” Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,108 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on August 29, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of the adult population of Quebec. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.