Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 30, PLQ 23, CAQ 19, PCQ 17, QS 10
(TORONTO, September 28, 2026) – The Parti Québécois enters the final week of Quebec’s election with a seven-point lead, and the CAQ has slipped to third behind the Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. The fifth wave of Pallas Data’s Quebec election tracking, fielded September 25-26 among 1,192 adults, shows the CAQ down four points in a week, with the Conservatives now within a point. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 30% (+2% since last week). The Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard follows at 23% (+1%), then the CAQ under Christine Fréchette at 19% (-3%). The Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime is at 17% (+1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 10% (-1%). The CAQ and Liberals had been level for two straight weeks. Milliard’s party is now four points clear. “A three-point drop in a week for the CAQ opens the door for the PQ to secure a win next week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PQ will form the next government. The only question is whether it will be a majority or a minority.” Montreal The PQ retook the lead in Montreal’s suburbs a week ago after the Liberals had briefly led there, and this week it pulled further ahead: 35% (+4%), against 21% for the Liberals (-2%) and 20% for the CAQ (-4%). Milliard’s real strength is downtown. The Liberals hold 46% on the Island of Montreal (+10%) and 53% among non-francophone voters (+2%). Quebec City and the regions The PCQ has topped the Quebec City region for four straight waves and sits at 33% this week (+2%). The CAQ and PQ are tied behind it at 24%, with the PQ down five points from last week. Outside the Montreal and Quebec City regions, the PCQ runs second at 25%, behind the PQ’s 33% and ahead of the CAQ’s 19%. “It looks as though Eric Duhaime and the Conservatives will accomplish their goal of winning seats in the National Assembly,” said Angolano. “Their goal now is to win 12 seats and gain official party status, and it looks like they might be on course to accomplish that.” Voters 65 and older The CAQ led among voters 65 and older through most of the campaign. That lead was gone last week, and it hasn’t returned. The PQ has 31% with this group (+1%), the CAQ 28% (-1%), and the Liberals 26%. “Older voters are the most dependable voters in Quebec, and the CAQ can’t count on them anymore,” Angolano said. “That was supposed to be its cushion, and now those voters have either flocked to the PQ or the Liberals.” Leader ratings and best premier Plamondon’s net favourability rose from -13% to -1%, the biggest move of the five leaders. Ghazal went from -2% to +3%, Duhaime from -30% to -25%, and Fréchette from -35% to -33%. Milliard slipped from -7% to -13%. On best premier, Plamondon leads at 32% (+3%). Fréchette moves up to second at 18% (+2%), ahead of Milliard at 17% (-2%). Duhaime is at 14% (+1%), and Ghazal is at 8% (-5%). “Plamondon is 14 points clear of the next leader on best premier with a week left,” Angolano said. “Nobody else in this race has the time to close that.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on a survey of 1,192 Quebec adults conducted by Pallas Data on September 25-26, 2026. Interviews were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. Results were weighted by age, gender, and region according to 2021 census figures, and the sample is intended to represent Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is ±2.8%, at a 95% confidence level, higher for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 28, PLQ 22, CAQ 22, PCQ 16, QS 11
(TORONTO, September 20, 2026) – The Parti Québécois gained just a single point on the ballot this week, but underneath that number is a much bigger shift in its favour, a new Pallas Data poll has found. The fourth wave of Pallas Data’s Quebec election tracking, fielded September 19 among 1,122 adults, shows the CAQ losing its grip on the one group it could count on most, while Christine Fréchette’s personal standing collapses beneath her. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 28% (+1% since last week), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 22% (-1%), and the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard also has 22% (-1%), the two still tied as they were last week. The Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime sits at 16%, unchanged, and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal holds 11%, also unchanged. “The lesson is sometimes the topline voting intention numbers don’t always tell the full story,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Despite the PQ only gaining a point from last week, they have rebounded in the Montreal suburbs, and have the narrowest of leads among voters over 65.” “It’s Advantage PQ with two weeks left in the election.” The suburbs flip Last week’s poll had the Liberals leading outright in Montreal’s suburbs, 30% to the PQ’s 24%. That lasted exactly one week. The PQ is back on top there now, at 31%, with the CAQ second at 24% and the Liberals down to 23%. Milliard’s remaining strength is concentrated on the Island of Montreal, where the Liberals stay dominant at 36%, and among non-francophone voters, where they hold 51%. The PCQ, meanwhile, is having a steadier month. It’s led the Quebec City region outright for three straight waves now (33% two weeks ago, 31% last week, 31% this week), with the CAQ a distant second at 25% and the PQ at 29%. Three weeks on top of the same region is enough to start translating into National Assembly seats if it holds through election day. The CAQ’s lead with seniors is gone For the past two waves, the CAQ has held a wide lead among voters 65 and older, the group that turns out to vote in the highest numbers of any age cohort. That lead has evaporated. The CAQ sits at 29% among voters 65-plus this week, statistically tied with the PQ’s 30%. A party can absorb losing a point of overall support far more easily than it can absorb losing its hold on the electorate’s most reliable voters. If this holds, it matters more on election day than the topline number suggests. “This slippage is the most important data point in this poll,” Angolano said. “Voters over the age of 65 are usually the group most likely to vote. Because the CAQ had been leading with this group throughout the entire election, they were looking to carry a turnout advantage heading into the polls.” “But that advantage is gone.” Leader favourability: Fréchette falls, everyone else climbs Comparing this week’s leader ratings to the wave from two weeks ago, four of the five leaders improved their net favourability. Fréchette didn’t. Her net rating fell from -18 % to -35%, a seventeen-point drop and the sharpest move of anyone in the poll. Milliard climbed from -23% to -7%, Ghazal from -16% to -2%, Plamondon from -25% to -13%, and Duhaime from -36% to -30%. Plamondon’s own vote share hasn’t moved with his favourability, but Fréchette’s slide lines up closely with what happened to her on the best-premier question this week. Best premier: Plamondon pulls back ahead, Fréchette falls to third Last week, Plamondon and Fréchette were dead even on who would make the best premier, both at 23%. That tie didn’t survive the week. Plamondon is back out front alone at 29%, and Fréchette has dropped to third, at 16%, passed by Milliard, who’s climbed to 19%. Fréchette running behind the leader of a party her own CAQ is tied with in vote share is the clearest sign yet that her personal standing has become a weaker asset for the CAQ than the ballot number alone suggests. Ghazal and Duhaime round out the field, tied at 13%. Methodology The analysis in this report is based on a survey of 1,122 Quebec adults conducted by Pallas Data on September 19, 2026. Interviews were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. Results were weighted by age, gender, and region according to 2021 census figures, and the sample is intended to represent the adult population of Quebec. The margin of error is ±2.9%, at a 95% confidence level, higher for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Vote-intention and regional comparisons are to Pallas Data’s wave of September 13, 2026; favourability comparisons are to the wave of September 6, 2026; best-premier comparisons are to the wave of September 13, 2026, the last time that question was asked.
Pallas Mississauga Poll: Parrish 32, Crombie 27, Tedjo 19, Damerla 12
(TORONTO, September 14, 2026) – Mississauga’s mayoral race is a genuine two-way contest heading into the fall campaign, with incumbent Carolyn Parrish holding a narrow edge over Bonnie Crombie, according to a new poll from Pallas Data. Among decided and leaning voters, Parrish sits at 32%, followed by Crombie at 27%, Alvin Tedjo at 19%, Dipika Damerla at 12%, and another candidate at 10%. A third of all respondents remain undecided, meaning the race is still very much in motion with six weeks to go before the October 26th vote. “Parrish is ahead, but Crombie is still very much competitive here,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “A five-point lead with a third of voters undecided is a good place to be in, but definitely not insurmountable.” Where the votes are coming from Parrish’s advantage is built on men and older voters. Among decided and leaning voters, she leads Crombie 36% to 31% with men, and holds a wide margin among voters 65 and older, 38% to 28%. Crombie’s strongest group is voters aged 50 to 64, where she leads Parrish 36% to 32%, and among women, again trailing Parrish by only four points, 24% to 28%. Damerla draws her strongest support from women, where she reaches 17%, more than double her showing among men. Tedjo’s support is spread fairly evenly across age groups, peaking with voters 35 to 49 at 23%. “The gender split here matters more than the topline number,” Angolano said. “Crombie needs to consolidate women voters if she wants to close this gap.” Younger voters remain the most fractured segment of the electorate. Among 18-to-34-year-olds who have decided or are leaning, Parrish leads with 27%, Crombie sits at 25%, Tedjo at 19%. Fourteen percent say they’ll vote for another candidate not listed: on par with the 15% who say the same among 35-to-49-year-olds, and well above the roughly 5% seen in every age bracket 50 and up. This is also the age group with the smallest sample in the poll, so the numbers should be read with that caveat. What comes next With five weeks of campaigning still ahead, the size of the undecided pool is the single biggest variable in this race. At 33% of all voters, it’s larger than the combined support of three of the five named candidates. How that group breaks, and whether it breaks at all, will likely decide whether Parrish’s current lead holds or Crombie closes it. Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted September 9-11, 2026, among a sample of 576 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Mississauga and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 27, CAQ 23, PLQ 23, PCQ 16, QS 11
(TORONTO, September 13, 2026) – The Quebec election tightened considerably this week, with the Parti Québécois still in front but its cushion over its rivals nearly gone, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 27% (-2%), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette sits at 23% (-1%), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has climbed to 23% (+3%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime is at 16% (+1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal holds steady at 11% (no change). “The PQ went from a comfortable lead to a four-point margin over two different parties in the space of a week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “They don’t have room to give up much more ground and still win the election.” The Liberals find some footing Milliard’s party gained three points province-wide, and the gains are concentrated exactly where a party needs them if it wants seats: the Island of Montreal, where the PLQ holds 37% against the PQ’s 21% and a fourth-place CAQ at 11%, and the Montreal RMR suburbs, where the Liberals now lead outright at 30%, ahead of the PQ’s 24% and the CAQ’s 20%. That rebound comes with a caveat. Just under one in three voters (29%) say the Liberals have run the worst campaign of any party so far, more than double the next-closest party. Voters appear willing to reward the Liberals in the polls without giving Milliard credit for how he’s gotten there. “Milliard’s numbers are moving in one direction and his campaign reviews are moving in the other,” Angolano said. Duhaime still leads the Quebec City region Outside Montreal, little has changed. The PCQ continues to lead outright in the Quebec City region at 31%, with the CAQ a distant second at 24% and the PQ at 20%. The PLQ is down to 14% there. Two straight weeks now with Duhaime’s party on top in the capital region is enough to translate into National Assembly seats if the pattern holds through election day. The PQ, for its part, remains dominant outside the major urban centres, at 34% in the rest of Quebec against the CAQ’s 27% and the PLQ’s 13%. That’s the PQ’s floor, and it’s a wide one, but it’s not growing. A dead heat for best premier When Quebecers were last asked who would make the best premier, Plamondon held a seven-point edge over Fréchette. That gap has closed entirely: both now sit at 23%. Milliard trails at 18%, Duhaime at 15%, and Ghazal at 9%. “Plamondon spent the first two weeks of this campaign as the clear front-runner on that question,” Angolano said. “Now his lead has shrunk and he needs to find some momentum to put some distance between himself and the other parties.” Who’s running the best campaign? 26% of respondents say the CAQ are running the best campaign, ahead of the PQ at 22% and the PCQ at 17%. Québec solidaire sits at 13%, and the Liberals bring up the rear at 7%, an unusual result for a party that just gained three points in vote intention. The worst-campaign numbers tell the inverse story: 29% point to the Liberals, more than twice the share naming any other party. Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,085 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on September 12, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 29, CAQ 24, PLQ 20, PCQ 15, QS 11
(TORONTO, September 6, 2026) – The Quebec election remains in a deadlock, with every party sitting within a point or two of where it stood in last week’s wave, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 29% (no change from last week), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 24% (no change), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has 20% (-2%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime has 15% (-1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 11% (+2%). “No party really moved this week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Everybody has a floor they can count on, and another week of campaigning didn’t create momentum for anyone.” Regional breakdown The regional map looks almost identical to last week. The PCQ still leads outright in Quebec City, at 33%, ahead of the CAQ’s 27% and the PQ’s 26%. The PLQ falls to single digits there, at 8%. In Montreal’s suburbs, the PQ has a slight edge over the CAQ, 32% to 30%, with the PLQ well back at 16%. On the Island of Montreal, the Liberals remain dominant at 40%, with the PQ a distant second at 19% and the CAQ still stuck in fourth at 12%. Fréchette’s government still underwater, but her coalition holds Six in ten Quebecers (61%) say they’re dissatisfied with the performance of the Fréchette government, compared with 21% who are satisfied. That dissatisfaction cuts across every region and both language groups. It isn’t touching her own voters, though. 73% of CAQ supporters say they’re satisfied with her government’s performance, up from 61% in August, while just 14% are dissatisfied. Leader favourability: Fréchette climbs, Plamondon falls Minority government is still the most likely outcome Pallas doesn’t do seat projections, but this week’s numbers are nearly identical to last week’s, so Quebec is still headed toward a minority government. “The prognosis is the same: the most likely outcome is a PQ minority government.” The PCQ has now led outright in the Quebec City region for two straight weeks in our election polling, climbing to 33% this week from 30% last week, while the Liberals have fallen to single digits there. “Eric Duhaime is consolidating his base in Quebec City and looks well placed to pick up seats for the PCQ.” Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,100 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on September 5, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 29, CAQ 24, PLQ 22, PCQ 16, QS 9
(TORONTO, 30 August 2026) – Quebec’s election campaign has opened with the Parti Québécois still in front, but the real story is behind Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The Coalition avenir Québec has climbed back into second place, and the Quebec Liberal Party has lost a third of the support it held in May, according to a new Pallas Data poll. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 29% (no change since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in May), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 24% (+5%), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has 22% (-6%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime has 16% (+2%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 9% (+1%). “The Quebec election has started, and the CAQ is finding new signs of life as the Trump tariff threats begin to take hold,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Regional and language breakdown The CAQ’s recovery is concentrated in the suburbs and the regions. In Montreal’s suburbs, the CAQ pulls 29%, nearly even with the PQ’s 28% and well ahead of the PLQ’s 17%. Outside Montreal and Quebec City, the CAQ sits at 23%, again running close to the PQ. On the Island of Montreal, still the Liberals’ strongest ground, the CAQ remains a distant fourth at 9%. The PCQ’s best result is in Quebec City, where Duhaime leads outright at 30%, ahead of the PQ’s 25% and the CAQ’s 22%. The PLQ falls to single digits there, at 8%. The PCQ also shows the widest gender gap of any party. Among men, Duhaime’s party draws 22% of the vote. Among women, it draws 8%. Age splits the electorate along familiar lines. Voters 65 and older back the CAQ at 34%, ahead of the PQ at 31%. Voters 18 to 34 favour the PQ at 29%, with QS drawing its strongest result in any age group at 17%, compared with just 2% among seniors. “The same dynamic that saved the federal Liberals last year might be developing here in Quebec.” Best party leader for the tariff crisis Asked which party leader would be best placed to guide Quebec through the crisis over American tariffs, 32% named Fréchette, 23% named Plamondon, 13% named Milliard, 13% named Duhaime, and 6% named Ghazal. Twelve percent didn’t know. Fréchette’s number runs well ahead of her party’s vote share, and her crossover appeal is the strongest of any leader tested. Ninety-six percent of CAQ voters pick her, but so do 15% of PLQ voters and 11% of QS voters. Plamondon holds 76% of his own PQ voters on this question but draws less support from outside his coalition. Milliard’s position is weaker: only 61% of his own PLQ voters name him, with the rest split between undecided and the other leaders. “This isn’t quite Elbows Up 2.0. Quebec voters trust Fréchette the most to lead through the tariff crisis, and that trust is spilling over into stronger CAQ support among voters over 50.” Seat outlook Pallas doesn’t do seat projections, but the regional pattern points to a fractured National Assembly if the numbers hold. “If the election were held today, this would be a PQ minority government, and one of the most fractured National Assemblies in Quebec’s history. The Liberals would still pick up some seats, the Conservatives would establish a beachhead in the Quebec City region, and the CAQ would be saved from oblivion.” Methodology Pallas Data surveyed 1,108 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on August 29, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of the adult population of Quebec. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Toronto Poll: Chow 50, Bradford 39, Alexander 8
(TORONTO, August 24, 2026) – Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford 38% to 30% in the race for Toronto mayor, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Among decided and leaning voters, the gap widens to 50% versus 39%. The survey was conducted August 19–21 among 808 Toronto voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Chow’s lead comes with a catch. 46% of Torontonians say the city is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 37% who say it is going in the right direction. Forty-eight percent are dissatisfied with Chow’s own performance as mayor, versus 37% satisfied. “What this tells us is that being disliked isn’t enough for an incumbent to lose,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Bradford needs to build a bridge of credibility with Toronto voters where they feel comfortable enough to hand him the keys to the Mayor’s Office. This hasn’t happened yet.” An Underwater Mayor, Still Out Front Chow’s approval numbers look more like those of an incumbent bracing for a fight than of one coasting to re-election. With that said, City Council approvals fare worse than hers: 53% are dissatisfied, 19% are satisfied. With that said, there are fewer Torontonians saying that the city is going in the wrong direction compared to March, when 49% of Torontonians said the city was on the wrong track. Torontonians aren’t optimistic about the two issues that matter most, either. Sixty-six percent say the city isn’t doing enough on affordability. Sixty-four percent say the same on housing specifically. On the fix, the electorate is split.35% want more supply, 39% want renter protections and expanded social housing, and a quarter aren’t sure. “What the Toronto mayoral election is showing us so far is that you can be underwater on these files and still be ahead, provided that voters don’t trust your opponents,” Angolano said. “That’s where Chow sits right now.” Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted August 19th-21st, 2026 among a sample of 808 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 31, PLQ 27, CAQ 19, PCQ 14, QS 9
(TORONTO, August 4, 2026) – The Parti québécois under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has widened its lead in Quebec provincial voting intentions, according to a new Pallas Data survey conducted for QC125. Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ sits at 31%, with the Liberal Party of Quebec under Charles Milliard at 27%. The Coalition avenir Québec under Christine Fréchette stands at 19%, with the Parti conservateur du Québec under Éric Duhaime at 14% and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal at 9%. “The PQ are in pole position as election season gets underway in Quebec,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “It might be too tough for the Liberals or the CAQ to catch up from here, while the PQ will be trying to earn a majority come election time.” Voting Intentions Among all voters, the PQ leads at 26%, followed by the PLQ at 23%, the CAQ at 16%, the PCQ at 12%, and QS at 8%. Fifteen percent remain undecided. Language remains the sharpest divide in the electorate. Among non-francophone voters, the PLQ commands 52% of the decided vote. Among francophones, the PQ leads with 34%, followed by the CAQ at 19% and the PLQ at 19%. The PLQ’s strength is concentrated on the Island of Montreal, where it reaches 42% of decided voters. The PQ is stronger off the island, leading in Montreal’s suburbs at 35% and in the rest of Quebec at 32%. The PCQ’s best region is the Quebec City RMR, where it draws 31% . The gender gap is most pronounced for the PCQ. Duhaime’s party draws 20% among men, against 8% among women. The PQ shows the opposite pattern, running six points stronger with women (34%) than men (28%). Government Performance The Fréchette government’s numbers are weak. Fifty-nine percent of respondents express some dissatisfaction with its performance, against 18% who are satisfied and 21% who are neutral. CAQ voters remain the government’s base of support, with 61% somewhat or very satisfied. The sharper number is on the PQ side: 67% of Plamondon’s voters are actively dissatisfied with the Fréchette government, not merely indifferent. Only 10% of PQ voters are satisfied, and barely 0.2% have no opinion at all. Best Premier On best premier, Plamondon leads at 26%, with Fréchette at 19%, Milliard at 17%, Duhaime at 12%, and Ghazal at 9%. Eighteen percent say none of the above or don’t know. Fréchette running comfortably ahead of Milliard on this measure, despite trailing him in overall favourability, points to a durable asset for the CAQ: voters who have otherwise drifted from the party still see her as more premier material than the Liberal leader. Sovereignty Twenty-nine percent of Quebecers say they would vote in favour of sovereignty in a referendum, against 59% opposed and 12% undecided. Voters aged 35 to 49 are the most open to sovereignty, at 35% in favour, while those 50 to 64 are the most opposed, at 66%. Even among 18-to-34-year-olds, the group sovereigntists usually point to as their future, 56% would still vote No. Seventy-nine percent of PQ voters would vote Yes, but that support drops to 33% among QS voters, 17% among PCQ voters, and 10% among CAQ voters. Liberal voters are almost unanimously opposed, at well under 1% in favour. Support for a Third Referendum Plamondon has said a PQ government would hold a sovereignty referendum in its first mandate. Quebecers are unconvinced: 64% say they’re unfavourable to the idea, against 30% favourable. Support for the idea is not unanimous even within the sovereigntist coalition. Seventy-four percent of PQ voters are favourable, but QS voters split closer to even (41% favourable, 53% unfavourable). Liberal and CAQ voters are almost uniformly opposed, at 91% and 84% unfavourable respectively. Party Leaders Duhaime again posts the worst net favourability of any leader tested, at 19% favourable against 59% unfavourable. His support is almost entirely a function of PCQ loyalty. Plamondon remains the most polarizing of the field’s leading contenders (32% favourable, 49% unfavourable) but his numbers are also the least underwater of the five. He has both stronger name recognition and a larger, more committed base to draw on. Fréchette and Milliard sit in similar territory: 24% and 21% favourable respectively, both with unfavourables in the high 40s and large neutral blocs. Ghazal’s 19% favourable is concentrated almost entirely among QS voters, with most other Quebecers registering neutral rather than actively negative. Methodology Pallas Data conducted this survey on August 1 and 2, 2026, using a random sample of 1,121 adults aged 18 and over living in the province of Quebec. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response (IVR), reaching respondents on both landlines and mobile phones. Responses were weighted using demographic information from the 2021 Census to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. This survey was commissioned by QC125. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Sondage Pallas Québec : PQ 31, PLQ 27, CAQ 19, PCQ 14, QS 9
(TORONTO, le 4 août 2026) – Le Parti québécois, dirigé par Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a creusé son avance dans les intentions de vote pour les élections provinciales au Québec, selon un nouveau sondage Pallas Data réalisé pour QC125. Parmi les électeurs décidés et indécis, le PQ recueille 31 % des intentions de vote, tandis que le Parti libéral du Québec, dirigé par Charles Milliard, en recueille 27 %. La Coalition Avenir Québec, dirigée par Christine Fréchette, recueille 19 % des intentions de vote, tandis que le Parti conservateur du Québec, dirigé par Éric Duhaime, s’élève à 14 % et Québec solidaire, dirigé par Ruba Ghazal, à 9 %. « Le PQ occupe la tête de la course alors que la campagne électorale démarre au Québec », a déclaré le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. « Il pourrait s’avérer trop difficile pour les Libéraux ou la CAQ de rattraper leur retard à partir de maintenant, tandis que le PQ tentera de remporter la majorité le jour du scrutin. » Intentions de vote Parmi l’ensemble des électeurs, le PQ arrive en tête avec 26 %, suivi du PLQ à 23 %, de la CAQ à 16 %, du PCQ à 12 % et de QS à 8 %. Quinze pour cent restent indécis. La langue reste le facteur de division le plus marquant au sein de l’électorat. Parmi les électeurs non francophones, le PLQ recueille 52 % des voix des électeurs ayant déjà pris leur décision. Chez les francophones, le PQ arrive en tête avec 34 %, suivi de la CAQ à 19 % et du PLQ à 19 %. La force du PLQ se concentre sur l’île de Montréal, où il recueille 42 % des voix des électeurs ayant déjà pris leur décision. Le PQ est plus fort hors de l’île, en tête dans la banlieue de Montréal avec 35 % des voix et dans le reste du Québec avec 32 %. La région où le PCQ obtient ses meilleurs résultats est la RMR de Québec, où il recueille 31 % des voix. L’écart entre les sexes est particulièrement marqué au sein du PCQ. Le parti de M. Duhaime recueille 20 % des suffrages chez les hommes, contre 8 % chez les femmes. Le PQ affiche quant à lui une tendance inverse, avec un score supérieur de six points chez les femmes (34 %) par rapport aux hommes (28 %). Performance des gouvernements Les résultats du gouvernement Fréchette sont médiocres. Cinquante-neuf pour cent des personnes interrogées se déclarent plus ou moins insatisfaites de son action, contre 18 % qui se disent satisfaites et 21 % qui se déclarent neutres. Les électeurs de la CAQ restent le socle de soutien du gouvernement, 61 % d’entre eux se déclarant plutôt ou très satisfaits. Le chiffre le plus marquant concerne le PQ : 67 % des électeurs de Plamondon sont activement mécontents du gouvernement Fréchette, et ne se contentent pas d’être indifférents. Seuls 10 % des électeurs du PQ sont satisfaits, et à peine 0,2 % n’ont aucune opinion. Meilleur premier ministre Dans le sondage « Best Premier », M. Plamondon arrive en tête avec 26 %, suivi de M. Fréchette à 19 %, M. Milliard à 17 %, M. Duhaime à 12 % et M. Ghazal à 9 %. Dix-huit pour cent des personnes interrogées répondent « Aucun de ceux-ci » ou « Je ne sais pas ». Le fait que Mme Fréchette devance largement M. Milliard sur ce point, bien qu’elle soit derrière lui en termes de popularité globale, met en évidence un atout durable pour la CAQ : les électeurs qui se sont par ailleurs détournés du parti continuent de la considérer comme davantage à la hauteur du poste de premier ministre que le chef libéral. Souveraineté Vingt-neuf pour cent des Québécois déclarent qu’ils voteraient en faveur de la souveraineté lors d’un référendum, contre 59 % qui s’y opposeraient et 12 % d’indécis. Les électeurs âgés de 35 à 49 ans sont les plus favorables à la souveraineté, avec 35 % d’opinions favorables, tandis que ceux âgés de 50 à 64 ans y sont les plus opposés, avec 66 %. Même parmi les 18-34 ans, que les souverainistes citent généralement comme leur avenir, 56 % voteraient tout de même « non ». 79 % des électeurs du PQ voteraient « oui », mais ce soutien tombe à 33 % chez les électeurs de QS, à 17 % chez ceux du PCQ et à 10 % chez ceux de la CAQ. Les électeurs libéraux y sont presque unanimement opposés, avec bien moins de 1 % d’entre eux en faveur. Soutien en faveur d’un troisième référendum M. Plamondon a déclaré qu’un gouvernement du PQ organiserait un référendum sur la souveraineté au cours de son premier mandat. Les Québécois ne sont pas convaincus : 64 % se disent opposés à cette idée, contre 30 % qui y sont favorables. Cette idée ne fait pas l’unanimité, même au sein de la coalition souverainiste. 74 % des électeurs du PQ y sont favorables, mais les électeurs de QS sont divisés de manière plus équilibrée (41 % y sont favorables, 53 % y sont défavorables). Les électeurs libéraux et ceux de la CAQ y sont presque unanimement opposés, avec respectivement 91 % et 84 % d’opinions défavorables. Chefs de parti M. Duhaime affiche une nouvelle fois le plus mauvais solde de popularité parmi tous les dirigeants évalués, avec 19 % d’opinions favorables contre 59 % d’opinions défavorables. Son soutien repose presque exclusivement sur la fidélité des membres du PCQ. Plamondon reste le candidat le plus clivant parmi les principaux prétendants (32 % d’opinions favorables, 49 % d’opinions défavorables), mais ses résultats sont également ceux qui s’en sortent le mieux parmi les cinq. Il bénéficie à la fois d’une meilleure notoriété et d’une base électorale plus importante et plus fidèle sur laquelle s’appuyer. Fréchette et Milliard se situent dans une situation similaire : respectivement 24 % et 21 % d’opinions favorables, tous deux
Sondage Pallas à Vancouver : la cote de popularité de Sim est en baisse, plus d’un tiers des personnes interrogées sont encore indécises
(TORONTO, le 30 juillet 2026) – Un nouveau sondage Pallas Data réalisé à Vancouver révèle que le candidat des Verts, Pete Fry, est en tête de la course à la mairie avec 18 % des intentions de vote, devant le maire sortant Ken Sim (14 %) et le candidat libéral de Vancouver, Kareem Allam (12 %). Colleen Hardwick, du parti TEAM, recueille 11 % des voix, Stephanie Allen, du COPE, 6 %, William Azaroff, de OneCity, 4 %, et Rebecca Bligh, de Vote Vancouver, 3 %. Un tiers des électeurs (34 %) reste indécis. La répartition par sexe est légèrement défavorable à M. Fry et favorise nettement M. Sim chez les hommes. M. Fry arrive en tête chez les femmes (20 %) et se place derrière M. Sim chez les hommes, où le soutien de 19 % dont bénéficie M. Sim est près du double de celui qu’il recueille chez les femmes (9 %). Mme Allam recueille plus de deux fois plus de soutien auprès des femmes (16 %) que des hommes (7 %). Les femmes sont également un peu plus déterminées que les hommes, 36 % des hommes étant indécis contre 31 % des femmes. Le statut de propriétaire accentue encore davantage ces tendances. Le soutien dont bénéficie Sim parmi les propriétaires (18 %) est plus de deux fois supérieur à celui qu’il recueille auprès des locataires (7 %), tandis que Fry devance légèrement les propriétaires (17 %) chez les locataires (19 %). Les locataires constituent également le groupe le moins décidé, avec 40 % d’indécis contre 30,8 % chez les propriétaires. « En général, les maires sortants obtiennent de bien meilleurs résultats à l’approche d’une élection ; Ken Sim se trouve donc dans une situation vraiment délicate », a déclaré le Dr Joseph Angolano, fondateur et PDG de Pallas Data. « M. Fry le devance légèrement, tandis qu’il se trouve à égalité statistique avec M. Allam. » La cote de popularité de Sim est au plus bas Lorsqu’on leur a demandé directement s’ils approuvaient la façon dont Sim s’acquitte de ses fonctions de maire, 28 % des électeurs de Vancouver ont répondu par l’affirmative (8 % « tout à fait d’accord », 20 % « plutôt d’accord »), tandis que 48 % ont exprimé leur désapprobation (34 % « tout à fait en désaccord », 14 % « plutôt en désaccord »). Le taux de désapprobation est le plus élevé chez les électeurs âgés de 50 à 64 ans (58 %) et le plus faible chez les plus jeunes, parmi lesquels un quart des personnes interrogées restent indécises plutôt que de se prononcer dans un sens ou dans l’autre. Les femmes désapprouvent davantage que les hommes (50,3 % contre 44,4 %), et les propriétaires sont les plus critiques de tous, 41,1 % d’entre eux désapprouvant fortement la gestion de M. Sim – un résultat notable étant donné que les propriétaires constituent également son principal bastion électoral. La course au Conseil suit une dynamique similaire La course au conseil municipal de Vancouver suit de près les résultats de la course à la mairie. Interrogés sur les candidats de quel parti ils soutiendraient pour le conseil municipal, 13 % des électeurs ont choisi les Verts de Vancouver, suivis par les Libéraux de Vancouver à 12 %, la Coalition des électeurs progressistes à 11 % et ABC Vancouver à 10 %. TEAM et les Conservateurs de Vancouver recueillent tous deux 7 %, tandis que OneCity obtient 2 % et Vote Vancouver 1 %. La plupart des électeurs sont indécis (39 %), ce qui représente une proportion d’indécis plus importante que lors de la course à la mairie. Tout comme lors du scrutin pour la mairie, les locataires se tournent davantage vers les Verts (20 %) que les propriétaires (10 %), tandis que le soutien à ABC Vancouver au sein du conseil municipal se concentre chez les propriétaires (13 %) et reste faible chez les locataires (4 %) – ce qui reflète presque exactement la coalition de Sim. Méthodologie : L’analyse présentée dans ce rapport s’appuie sur les résultats d’un sondage réalisé du 20 au 24 juillet 2026 auprès d’un échantillon de 312 adultes âgés de 18 ans ou plus, résidant à Vancouver et habilités à voter aux élections municipales. Le sondage a été réalisé à l’aide d’entretiens téléphoniques automatisés utilisant la technologie de réponse vocale interactive (IVR), les personnes interrogées ayant été contactées sur des lignes fixes et des téléphones portables. L’échantillon a été pondéré en fonction de l’âge, du sexe et de la région, conformément aux données du recensement de 2021. Ce sondage a été commandé par l’Association des électeurs conservateurs. La marge d’erreur de ce sondage est de ± 5,5 %, avec un niveau de confiance de 95 %. Les marges d’erreur sont plus élevées dans chaque sous-échantillon. Il se peut que les totaux ne totalisent pas exactement 100 % en raison des arrondis.