(TORONTO, October 13, 2026) – The BC Conservatives lead the NDP by five points with eleven days to go in the provincial election campaign, according to a new Pallas Data poll.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson have 43%. The BC NDP under Premier David Eby has 38%. The Greens, led by Emily Lowan, are at 11%; OneBC under Dallas Brodie is at 5%; CentreBC under Elenore Sturko is at 2%; and another party is at 1%.
“Five points with 11 days left is a lead the NDP can still close,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The problem is that Eby sits below 40% and most voters think the province is on the wrong track.”
Metro Vancouver is a tie, with the Conservatives and NDP both at 41%. The Conservatives lead 51% to 37% in the Rest of BC. Vancouver Island is a four-way contest: Conservatives 35%, NDP 33%, Greens 18% and OneBC 13%, the best OneBC number in any region.
Men go Conservative, 46% to 37%. Women are split, with 41% Conservative and 39% NDP, and 14% back the Greens, compared with 9% of men.
The Conservatives lead every age group except 50 to 64, where they and the NDP are level at 36%. Among voters 18 to 34, the Conservatives have 51% to the NDP’s 35%, but only 46 interviews sit behind that number before weighting, so treat it gently. They lead 42% to 40% among voters 35 to 49 and 45% to 41% among those 65 and older. The 50-to-64 group is the most scattered, with 16% behind the Greens and 9% behind OneBC.
“Younger voters are going Conservative in large numbers,” said Angolano. “Older voters are the most up for grabs, with a quarter of them behind the Greens or OneBC.”
Doerkson Leads Eby on Best Premier
Asked which leader would make the best premier, regardless of how they might vote, 35% of all voters picked Doerkson. Eby has 29%, Lowan 13%, Brodie 6% and Sturko 2%. Another 5% chose none of the above and 10% did not know.
Doerkson also leads in Metro Vancouver, 36% to 34%. Eby is strongest among voters 65 and older (37%) and weakest among those 18 to 34 (18%), where Doerkson has 38% and Lowan 24%.
Each of the two main leaders holds 78% of their own party’s voters. Lowan holds 66% of Green voters, and 9% of NDP voters pick her as best premier. Undecided voters lean Eby over Doerkson, 22% to 13%, though 46% of them have no pick.
Voters Think BC Is Headed in the Wrong Direction
A majority of British Columbians (53%) say the province is heading in the wrong direction. Another 32% say the province is headed in the right direction and 15% are not sure.
Wrong-direction sentiment peaks among voters 18 to 34 (62%) and on Vancouver Island (58%). Voters 65 and older are closest to even, at 43% wrong and 39% right.
Opinion follows party lines. NDP voters say right direction, 71% to 9%. Conservative voters say wrong direction, 86% to 7%, and OneBC voters 90% to 0%. Green voters lean wrong, 53% to 34%. Undecided voters mostly cannot say (48%).
“Eby is asking for another term with a majority of voters saying the province is going the wrong way and more of them picking his main opponent as premier,” said Angolano. “He has 11 days to move one of those numbers.”
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 10th-11th, 2026 among a sample of 513 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
