(TORONTO, October 4, 2026) – Quebecers look set to elect a Parti Québécois minority government on Monday, according to Pallas Data’s final poll of the campaign. The PQ leads the Liberals by five points, and Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives have climbed past the governing CAQ into third.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 29% (-1%), the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard has 24% (+1%), the Parti conservateur du Québec under Duhaime has 20% (+3%), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 15% (-4%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal has 11% (+1%). Other parties total 1%. Changes are from our previous wave, fielded September 25-26.
The PCQ was at 15% in our first poll of September, when the CAQ was at 24%.
“The PQ will almost certainly form the next government. A minority is the likelier result, but a majority is not out of reach if turnout breaks their way and their campaign organization outperforms the other parties,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
Where the Vote Is
The PCQ has led the Quebec City region for a fifth straight wave. Duhaime’s party has 35% (+2%), ahead of the PQ at 24% and the CAQ at 20% (-4%). The Liberals have 15%.
Outside Montreal and Quebec City, the PQ leads at 32%, with the PCQ second at 24% and the CAQ under 20%. In the Montreal suburbs, the PCQ has 18%, behind the PQ at 33% and the Liberals at 29%. On the Island of Montreal, the Liberals lead with 33%.
The PCQ runs second in both language groups. Among francophones, the PQ leads at 36%, with the PCQ at 19%, narrowly ahead of the Liberals at 18% and the CAQ at 16%. Among non-Francophones, the Liberals have 47%, the PCQ is second at 26%, and the PQ has 5%.
“The PCQ have run an excellent campaign according to many pundits, and it reflects in this poll. Duhaime’s team is second among francophones, second among non-francophones, and first in Quebec City. No single demographic carries the PCQ vote, and that makes it durable,” continued Angolano.
Plamondon leads on best premier but with low favourability ratings
Asked which leader would make the best premier, 28% pick Plamondon, 21% Milliard, 18% Duhaime, and 12% each Ghazal and Fréchette. Another 5% say none of them and 4% are unsure.
The favourability ratings tell a different story. Plamondon’s net rating is -20% (34% favourable, 54% unfavourable).
Duhaime’s net rating is -26% (30% favourable, 56% unfavourable). Milliard at -3 and Ghazal at +1 are the only leaders close to even, though a third of voters are neutral on Milliard. Fréchette is at -46 (19% favourable, 64% unfavourable). Even among CAQ voters, her net rating is only +20.
“Plamondon is leading with a face more voters dislike than like. Voters are choosing the party over the man, and his own ratings are likely what stands between the PQ and a majority,” Angolano said.
Methodology
Pallas Data surveyed 1,137 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on October 3, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Responses were statistically weighted using 2021 Census demographic data. Vote intention figures are for the 1,114 decided and leaning respondents. The margin of error for the full sample is ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20 (95% confidence level). Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
