(TORONTO, April 22, 2026) – The Liberal Party of Quebec under Charles Milliard leads Quebec provincial voting intentions, according to a new Pallas Data survey conducted for QC125.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PLQ sits at 32%, with the Parti québécois under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon close behind at 29%. The Coalition avenir Québec under Christine Fréchette and the Parti conservateur du Québec under Éric Duhaime are tied at 14%, with Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal at 11%.
“This is a two-party race in most of Quebec, and now that the Liberals have taken the lead, the election in October becomes very interesting,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
Voting Intentions
Among all voters, the PLQ leads at 28%, followed by the PQ at 24%, the CAQ at 11%, the PCQ at 11%, and QS at 8%. Seventeen percent remain undecided.
The language divide defines the race. Among non-francophone voters, the PLQ commands 64% of the decided vote. Among francophones, the PQ leads at 34% to the PLQ’s 21%.
On the Island of Montreal, the PLQ pulls 57% of decided voters. In the Quebec City RMR, the PQ leads at 33%, followed by the PLQ at 22%, with the PCQ a competitive third at 20%. In Montreal’s suburbs, the PCQ reaches 34%: its strongest region and a number worth watching as an indicator of a potential right-of-centre consolidation.
The CAQ’s position is weak across the board. Its 14% among decided voters is concentrated among older francophones and suburban Montrealers.
QS draws its support heavily from younger voters: the party pulls 23% among 18-to-34-year-olds in the decided electorate, compared to just 3% among voters 65 and older.
Best Premier
On best premier, Charles Milliard leads at 26%, with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 23%, Christine Fréchette at 14%, Éric Duhaime at 11%, and Ruba Ghazal at 7%. Fourteen percent say none of the above or don’t know.
Milliard’s lead is almost entirely a function of PLQ coalition loyalty and non-francophone voters. Among francophones, Plamondon leads best premier at 27% to Milliard’s 17%. Fréchette’s 18% among francophones suggests the CAQ still commands a residual base of loyal voters even as its provincial numbers erode.
Sovereignty
Just over six in ten Quebec voters (63%) would vote against sovereignty in a referendum, with 31% in favour and 6% undecided. The No side’s strength is consistent across most demographics, but the generational pattern tells a specific story: voters aged 50–64 are the most opposed, at 74%, while 18-to-34-year-olds are the least opposed, at 55%, with 40% saying they would vote Yes.
The partisan breakdown is equally telling. Only among PQ voters does support for sovereignty reach a majority (64%). QS voters split roughly 53% Yes to 37% No, a finding that complicates the sovereigntist coalition: QS support for independence is softer than its reputation suggests. Even 17% of PCQ voters say they would vote Yes.
“Sovereignty still polls well below 50% across the electorate, and it’s not moving meaningfully among younger voters the way sovereigntist strategists need it to,” said Angolano. “But the PQ doesn’t necessarily need a majority on sovereignty to win an election. It needs enough of a sovereigntist coalition to beat a fragmented field.”
A Third Referendum
Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum on sovereignty in his first mandate if the PQ wins the next election. Quebecer reaction is sharply negative. 71% of respondents are unfavourable to the idea, with 53% strongly opposed. Only 26% are favourable.
Opposition crosses party lines. Among CAQ voters, 87% are opposed. Among PLQ voters, 96%. Even among QS voters, 51% are opposed. This suggests that QS supporters are more comfortable with sovereignty as an abstract aspiration than as an imminent political project. The only cohort where a majority supports the idea is PQ voters themselves, at 61% in favour.
“Plamondon’s referendum pledge is a base-mobilization play,” said Angolano. “The numbers are unambiguous: most Quebecers, including many who would vote PQ, do not want this fight right now.”
Party Leaders
Of the five leaders tested, Duhaime draws the highest unfavourable ratings overall (58% combined), with particular resistance from younger voters (64% unfavourable among 18-to-34-year-olds) and QS supporters (82% unfavourable). His favourable rating of 19% is concentrated almost entirely within his own party’s voters (74% favourable among PCQ voters).
Plamondon’s ratings are polarized. He earns 33% favourable overall, but 47% unfavourable.
Milliard and Fréchette occupy similar territory: moderate unfavourables, large neutral blocs, and limited cross-partisan appeal. Milliard’s 31% favourable is driven by PLQ loyalists and non-francophone voters. Fréchette’s 30% favourable is concentrated among older voters and those still attached to the CAQ.
Methodology:
Pallas Data conducted this survey from April 13 to 14, 2026, using a random sample of 956 adults aged 18 and over living in the province of Quebec. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response (IVR), reaching respondents on both landlines and mobile phones. Responses were weighted using demographic information from the 2021 Census to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. This survey was commissioned by QC125. The margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
