(TORONTO, April 23, 2026) – Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives lead Ontario’s three-party race, but a new Pallas Data poll conducted for The Trillium finds the government’s $28.9-million jet purchase doing real damage to PC support, and the premier’s own explanation is only helping with his existing voters.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs sit at 37%, followed by the Ontario Liberals under John Fraser at 32%, and the NDP under Marit Stiles at 24%. The Greens hold 6%. That 37% is down from 40% in Pallas’s previous Ontario poll conducted April 8 — before the jet story broke — and represents the party’s lowest level of support in more than two years.
“Lucky for the Premier that this slip-up happened years before the next election, but this jet purchase has stung him,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Parts of his base are looking at him a lot less favourably because of this.”
The Jet: Opposition Holds After Ford’s Explanation
The poll went into the field on April 21–22, shortly after Ford held a media conference insisting the jet was never intended to be exclusively for his use and would have served cabinet ministers and emergencies as well. Ford told reporters that once he explained the broader purpose, at least half the people he spoke with came around to supporting it.
The numbers do not support that reading. Initially, 79% of Ontarians said they oppose the purchase, with 65% opposing it strongly. Just 18% expressed support. A majority of PC voters (54%) opposed it as well.
After respondents were read Ford’s explanation and were invited to reconsider, opposition dropped modestly: from 79% to 74% overall, and from 54% to 45% among PC voters. Supporters of other parties were largely unmoved.
“The good news for the Premier is that his explanation landed with a majority of PC voters, but the explanation is not landing with everybody else,” Angolano said.
“That gap is the core of the problem. Ford appears to be calibrating his read of public opinion off conversations with his own supporters – the audiences at events and the callers to his phone,” Angolano said. “But that is definitely not the opinion of Ontarians”.
A Third of Past PC Voters Now Say They Won’t Return
The vote impact question is the poll’s sharpest finding. When asked how the jet purchase affected their support for the PC Party of Ontario, 18% of all voters said they had supported the PCs in the past and won’t again. Another 14% said they’d voted PC before and are now less likely to do so. Combined, that’s roughly one in three voters who previously supported the party at some point now expressing a softened or severed commitment.
Just 26% of all voters said they had supported the PCs before and will do so again.
Among current PC voters, 17% say they either won’t vote for the PCs now (3.4%) or are less likely to vote for them now (13.4%).
17% of 37% is 6%. If that 6% leaves the PCs, they would drop to 31%, which is the party’s historic base and is not enough to win the next election.
“The Premier can’t keep stepping on banana peels like this and expect to hold the lead in voting intentions much longer,” Angolano said. “The good news for him is that the election is three years away and he can course-correct.”
“But if he continues with the string of errors – this, the Skills Development fund, and FOI issues – and he will suffer Francois Legault’s fate in the next election.”
For context, Legault and the Coalition Avenir Quebec won a large majority in the 2022 Quebec election, but Legault has since resigned and the CAQ are currently at 14% in the latest Pallas Data poll and on track to win zero seats in the upcoming election in October.
The Regional Map
The broader picture of voting intentions shows structural PC advantages outside Toronto that remain intact. In Northern Ontario, the PCs lead, with decided and leaning voters at 50%, the OLP at 30%, and the NDP at 18%. The GTA goes 41% PC, 35% OLP, 17% NDP. Southwest Ontario sits at 39% PC, 28% NDP, 25% OLP.
Toronto is the tightest region: OLP at 36%, PCs at 31%, NDP at 29%. Eastern Ontario is competitive as well, with the OLP leading at 34% against the PCs at 29%.
The map gives the PCs a path. The jet has put soft support in play in regions where the party cannot afford to bleed.
Methodology
This survey was conducted by Pallas Data on April 21–22, 2026, among a sample of 1,007 adults aged 18 or older living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. Interviews were conducted by IVR on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level; margins of error are higher within subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. This survey was conducted for The Trillium.
