(TORONTO, May 4, 2026) – Caroline Elliott leads the BC Conservative Party leadership race with 31% of first-choice support among party members, according to a new Pallas Data survey conducted May 1–2, 2026. Kerry-Lynne Findlay sits second at 24%, followed by Iain Black at 18%. Peter Milobar and Yuri Fulmer trail at 9% and 7% respectively. 12% of members are still undecided.
The poll was sponsored by the Elliott campaign.
“In a preferential ballot race with this much ballot exhaustion, first place is the place to be,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The math rewards whoever gets their voters out.”
Regional Breakdown
Elliott’s lead is built in Metro Vancouver, where she runs at 36%. Findlay is at 17% there. Outside the Lower Mainland, the race tightens considerably. Findlay leads in the Fraser Valley (33%), Vancouver Island (27%), and the North (31%), with Elliott at 26% and 25% in the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island, respectively. Findlay has a lead in the Interior over Elliott by four points.
Black’s best region is Metro Vancouver at 23%, nearly five points above his province-wide number. Milobar draws most of his support from the Interior (20%), while he is in single digits everywhere else.
Gender and Age
Elliott leads men at 34% and drops to 23% among women. Findlay is close to the mirror image: 19% among men, 33% among women.
Elliott peaks with the 35-49 cohort at 39%. Among members 65 and older, Findlay edges ahead, 27% to 24%. Black and Milobar both run stronger with older members.
“Findlay’s voters are women, older members, and members outside Metro Vancouver. That’s a real coalition. But Elliott’s lower mainland numbers put her in pole position and make her vote more efficient, given how BC Conservative membership is distributed regionally,” said Angolano.
Second Choice: Ballot Exhaustion Favours the Front-Runner
37% of decided members said they have no second choice. That figure hits 41% in the Interior and 43% among Elliott’s own first-choice voters. In a preferential ballot, those ballots don’t transfer and are gone after the first elimination.
This means that votes that are exhausted leave the voter pool, the denominator shrinks, and the remaining candidates’ vote share increases – including that of the leader.
Elliott’s seven-point gap over Findlay is more durable than it looks for exactly this reason.
Where transfers do happen, Elliott gains more from Black’s voters than Findlay does. Among Black’s first-choice supporters, 25% name Elliott as their second choice, compared with 19% for Findlay. Findlay’s best transfer pool is Fulmer voters at 29%, but Fulmer is at 7% province-wide. The ceiling on that gain is low.
“This race will be decided by ground game and campaign organization, not second-choice arithmetic,” said Angolano. “With ballot exhaustion this high, the candidate who turns out his or her members on voting day has an advantage that polling can’t fully capture. Elliott is in first. Staying there is the whole game.”
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 1st–2nd, 2026 among a sample of 1,253 members of the British Columbia Conservative Party. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by region according to the regional distribution of seats in the province of British Columbia. This poll was sponsored by the Caroline Elliott campaign, and the membership list was provided to Pallas Data in accordance with the rules of the Leadership Race. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
