(TORONTO, September 14, 2026) – Mississauga’s mayoral race is a genuine two-way contest heading into the fall campaign, with incumbent Carolyn Parrish holding a narrow edge over Bonnie Crombie, according to a new poll from Pallas Data.
Among decided and leaning voters, Parrish sits at 32%, followed by Crombie at 27%, Alvin Tedjo at 19%, Dipika Damerla at 12%, and another candidate at 10%. A third of all respondents remain undecided, meaning the race is still very much in motion with six weeks to go before the October 26th vote.
“Parrish is ahead, but Crombie is still very much competitive here,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “A five-point lead with a third of voters undecided is a good place to be in, but definitely not insurmountable.”
Where the votes are coming from
Parrish’s advantage is built on men and older voters. Among decided and leaning voters, she leads Crombie 36% to 31% with men, and holds a wide margin among voters 65 and older, 38% to 28%. Crombie’s strongest group is voters aged 50 to 64, where she leads Parrish 36% to 32%, and among women, again trailing Parrish by only four points, 24% to 28%.
Damerla draws her strongest support from women, where she reaches 17%, more than double her showing among men. Tedjo’s support is spread fairly evenly across age groups, peaking with voters 35 to 49 at 23%.
“The gender split here matters more than the topline number,” Angolano said. “Crombie needs to consolidate women voters if she wants to close this gap.”
Younger voters remain the most fractured segment of the electorate. Among 18-to-34-year-olds who have decided or are leaning, Parrish leads with 27%, Crombie sits at 25%, Tedjo at 19%.
Fourteen percent say they’ll vote for another candidate not listed: on par with the 15% who say the same among 35-to-49-year-olds, and well above the roughly 5% seen in every age bracket 50 and up. This is also the age group with the smallest sample in the poll, so the numbers should be read with that caveat.
What comes next
With five weeks of campaigning still ahead, the size of the undecided pool is the single biggest variable in this race. At 33% of all voters, it’s larger than the combined support of three of the five named candidates. How that group breaks, and whether it breaks at all, will likely decide whether Parrish’s current lead holds or Crombie closes it.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted September 9-11, 2026, among a sample of 576 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Mississauga and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR) on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
