(TORONTO, September 13, 2026) – The Quebec election tightened considerably this week, with the Parti Québécois still in front but its cushion over its rivals nearly gone, a new Pallas Data poll has found.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 27% (-2%), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette sits at 23% (-1%), the PLQ under Charles Milliard has climbed to 23% (+3%), the PCQ under Éric Duhaime is at 16% (+1%), and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal holds steady at 11% (no change).
“The PQ went from a comfortable lead to a four-point margin over two different parties in the space of a week,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “They don’t have room to give up much more ground and still win the election.”
The Liberals find some footing
Milliard’s party gained three points province-wide, and the gains are concentrated exactly where a party needs them if it wants seats: the Island of Montreal, where the PLQ holds 37% against the PQ’s 21% and a fourth-place CAQ at 11%, and the Montreal RMR suburbs, where the Liberals now lead outright at 30%, ahead of the PQ’s 24% and the CAQ’s 20%.
That rebound comes with a caveat. Just under one in three voters (29%) say the Liberals have run the worst campaign of any party so far, more than double the next-closest party. Voters appear willing to reward the Liberals in the polls without giving Milliard credit for how he’s gotten there.
“Milliard’s numbers are moving in one direction and his campaign reviews are moving in the other,” Angolano said.
Duhaime still leads the Quebec City region
Outside Montreal, little has changed. The PCQ continues to lead outright in the Quebec City region at 31%, with the CAQ a distant second at 24% and the PQ at 20%. The PLQ is down to 14% there. Two straight weeks now with Duhaime’s party on top in the capital region is enough to translate into National Assembly seats if the pattern holds through election day.
The PQ, for its part, remains dominant outside the major urban centres, at 34% in the rest of Quebec against the CAQ’s 27% and the PLQ’s 13%. That’s the PQ’s floor, and it’s a wide one, but it’s not growing.
A dead heat for best premier
When Quebecers were last asked who would make the best premier, Plamondon held a seven-point edge over Fréchette. That gap has closed entirely: both now sit at 23%. Milliard trails at 18%, Duhaime at 15%, and Ghazal at 9%.
“Plamondon spent the first two weeks of this campaign as the clear front-runner on that question,” Angolano said. “Now his lead has shrunk and he needs to find some momentum to put some distance between himself and the other parties.”
Who’s running the best campaign?
26% of respondents say the CAQ are running the best campaign, ahead of the PQ at 22% and the PCQ at 17%. Québec solidaire sits at 13%, and the Liberals bring up the rear at 7%, an unusual result for a party that just gained three points in vote intention. The worst-campaign numbers tell the inverse story: 29% point to the Liberals, more than twice the share naming any other party.
Methodology
Pallas Data surveyed 1,085 adults aged 18 or older living in Quebec on September 12, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted by landline and cellphone. Results were weighted using 2021 Census demographic data and are intended to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
