(TORONTO, September 20, 2026) – The Parti Québécois gained just a single point on the ballot this week, but underneath that number is a much bigger shift in its favour, a new Pallas Data poll has found. The fourth wave of Pallas Data’s Quebec election tracking, fielded September 19 among 1,122 adults, shows the CAQ losing its grip on the one group it could count on most, while Christine Fréchette’s personal standing collapses beneath her.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon holds 28% (+1% since last week), the CAQ under Christine Fréchette has 22% (-1%), and the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard also has 22% (-1%), the two still tied as they were last week. The Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime sits at 16%, unchanged, and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal holds 11%, also unchanged.
“The lesson is sometimes the topline voting intention numbers don’t always tell the full story,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Despite the PQ only gaining a point from last week, they have rebounded in the Montreal suburbs, and have the narrowest of leads among voters over 65.”
“It’s Advantage PQ with two weeks left in the election.”
The suburbs flip
Last week’s poll had the Liberals leading outright in Montreal’s suburbs, 30% to the PQ’s 24%. That lasted exactly one week. The PQ is back on top there now, at 31%, with the CAQ second at 24% and the Liberals down to 23%. Milliard’s remaining strength is concentrated on the Island of Montreal, where the Liberals stay dominant at 36%, and among non-francophone voters, where they hold 51%.
The PCQ, meanwhile, is having a steadier month. It’s led the Quebec City region outright for three straight waves now (33% two weeks ago, 31% last week, 31% this week), with the CAQ a distant second at 25% and the PQ at 29%. Three weeks on top of the same region is enough to start translating into National Assembly seats if it holds through election day.
The CAQ’s lead with seniors is gone
For the past two waves, the CAQ has held a wide lead among voters 65 and older, the group that turns out to vote in the highest numbers of any age cohort. That lead has evaporated. The CAQ sits at 29% among voters 65-plus this week, statistically tied with the PQ’s 30%.
A party can absorb losing a point of overall support far more easily than it can absorb losing its hold on the electorate’s most reliable voters. If this holds, it matters more on election day than the topline number suggests.
“This slippage is the most important data point in this poll,” Angolano said. “Voters over the age of 65 are usually the group most likely to vote. Because the CAQ had been leading with this group throughout the entire election, they were looking to carry a turnout advantage heading into the polls.”
“But that advantage is gone.”
Leader favourability: Fréchette falls, everyone else climbs
Comparing this week’s leader ratings to the wave from two weeks ago, four of the five leaders improved their net favourability. Fréchette didn’t.
Her net rating fell from -18 % to -35%, a seventeen-point drop and the sharpest move of anyone in the poll. Milliard climbed from -23% to -7%, Ghazal from -16% to -2%, Plamondon from -25% to -13%, and Duhaime from -36% to -30%. Plamondon’s own vote share hasn’t moved with his favourability, but Fréchette’s slide lines up closely with what happened to her on the best-premier question this week.
Best premier: Plamondon pulls back ahead, Fréchette falls to third
Last week, Plamondon and Fréchette were dead even on who would make the best premier, both at 23%. That tie didn’t survive the week. Plamondon is back out front alone at 29%, and Fréchette has dropped to third, at 16%, passed by Milliard, who’s climbed to 19%.
Fréchette running behind the leader of a party her own CAQ is tied with in vote share is the clearest sign yet that her personal standing has become a weaker asset for the CAQ than the ballot number alone suggests. Ghazal and Duhaime round out the field, tied at 13%.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on a survey of 1,122 Quebec adults conducted by Pallas Data on September 19, 2026. Interviews were conducted using interactive voice response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. Results were weighted by age, gender, and region according to 2021 census figures, and the sample is intended to represent the adult population of Quebec. The margin of error is ±2.9%, at a 95% confidence level, higher for subsamples. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Vote-intention and regional comparisons are to Pallas Data’s wave of September 13, 2026; favourability comparisons are to the wave of September 6, 2026; best-premier comparisons are to the wave of September 13, 2026, the last time that question was asked.
