(TORONTO, August 4, 2026) – The Parti québécois under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has widened its lead in Quebec provincial voting intentions, according to a new Pallas Data survey conducted for QC125.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PQ sits at 31%, with the Liberal Party of Quebec under Charles Milliard at 27%. The Coalition avenir Québec under Christine Fréchette stands at 19%, with the Parti conservateur du Québec under Éric Duhaime at 14% and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal at 9%.
“The PQ are in pole position as election season gets underway in Quebec,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “It might be too tough for the Liberals or the CAQ to catch up from here, while the PQ will be trying to earn a majority come election time.”
Voting Intentions
Among all voters, the PQ leads at 26%, followed by the PLQ at 23%, the CAQ at 16%, the PCQ at 12%, and QS at 8%. Fifteen percent remain undecided.
Language remains the sharpest divide in the electorate. Among non-francophone voters, the PLQ commands 52% of the decided vote. Among francophones, the PQ leads with 34%, followed by the CAQ at 19% and the PLQ at 19%.
The PLQ’s strength is concentrated on the Island of Montreal, where it reaches 42% of decided voters. The PQ is stronger off the island, leading in Montreal’s suburbs at 35% and in the rest of Quebec at 32%. The PCQ’s best region is the Quebec City RMR, where it draws 31% .
The gender gap is most pronounced for the PCQ. Duhaime’s party draws 20% among men, against 8% among women. The PQ shows the opposite pattern, running six points stronger with women (34%) than men (28%).
Government Performance
The Fréchette government’s numbers are weak. Fifty-nine percent of respondents express some dissatisfaction with its performance, against 18% who are satisfied and 21% who are neutral.
CAQ voters remain the government’s base of support, with 61% somewhat or very satisfied. The sharper number is on the PQ side: 67% of Plamondon’s voters are actively dissatisfied with the Fréchette government, not merely indifferent. Only 10% of PQ voters are satisfied, and barely 0.2% have no opinion at all.
Best Premier
On best premier, Plamondon leads at 26%, with Fréchette at 19%, Milliard at 17%, Duhaime at 12%, and Ghazal at 9%. Eighteen percent say none of the above or don’t know.
Fréchette running comfortably ahead of Milliard on this measure, despite trailing him in overall favourability, points to a durable asset for the CAQ: voters who have otherwise drifted from the party still see her as more premier material than the Liberal leader.
Sovereignty
Twenty-nine percent of Quebecers say they would vote in favour of sovereignty in a referendum, against 59% opposed and 12% undecided.
Voters aged 35 to 49 are the most open to sovereignty, at 35% in favour, while those 50 to 64 are the most opposed, at 66%. Even among 18-to-34-year-olds, the group sovereigntists usually point to as their future, 56% would still vote No.
Seventy-nine percent of PQ voters would vote Yes, but that support drops to 33% among QS voters, 17% among PCQ voters, and 10% among CAQ voters. Liberal voters are almost unanimously opposed, at well under 1% in favour.
Support for a Third Referendum
Plamondon has said a PQ government would hold a sovereignty referendum in its first mandate. Quebecers are unconvinced: 64% say they’re unfavourable to the idea, against 30% favourable.
Support for the idea is not unanimous even within the sovereigntist coalition. Seventy-four percent of PQ voters are favourable, but QS voters split closer to even (41% favourable, 53% unfavourable). Liberal and CAQ voters are almost uniformly opposed, at 91% and 84% unfavourable respectively.
Party Leaders
Duhaime again posts the worst net favourability of any leader tested, at 19% favourable against 59% unfavourable. His support is almost entirely a function of PCQ loyalty.
Plamondon remains the most polarizing of the field’s leading contenders (32% favourable, 49% unfavourable) but his numbers are also the least underwater of the five. He has both stronger name recognition and a larger, more committed base to draw on.
Fréchette and Milliard sit in similar territory: 24% and 21% favourable respectively, both with unfavourables in the high 40s and large neutral blocs. Ghazal’s 19% favourable is concentrated almost entirely among QS voters, with most other Quebecers registering neutral rather than actively negative.
Methodology
Pallas Data conducted this survey on August 1 and 2, 2026, using a random sample of 1,121 adults aged 18 and over living in the province of Quebec. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response (IVR), reaching respondents on both landlines and mobile phones. Responses were weighted using demographic information from the 2021 Census to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. This survey was commissioned by QC125. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
