(TORONTO, May 27, 2026) – Mark Carney’s Liberals hold a thirteen-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a new Pallas Data poll has found.
The survey was conducted May 23–24 among 1295 Canadians eligible to vote. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Beneath the voting numbers, Canada’s Economic Patriotism Index tells a more complicated story about where Canadian attitudes toward the trade war are heading.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 45%, the Conservatives 32%, the NDP 11%, the Bloc Québécois 7%, and the Greens 3%.
“Carney can call an election today and expect to win a larger majority,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Liberals are in an unassailable position nationally, with dominant leads in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and British Columbia.”
The Liberals lead by 21 points in Ontario, 15 points over the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, 15 points over the Conservatives in BC, and 13 points over the Bloc in Quebec.
Canadians Are Getting Used to Trump
Pallas Data has tracked the Economic Patriotism Index since May 2025, measuring Canadians’ willingness to make economic sacrifices for Canadian independence. The latest wave shows a significant shift.
High economic patriotism is down eight points since December, from 34% to 26%. Low economic patriotism is up four points, from 24% to 29%. For the first time since Pallas launched the EPI, more Canadians score low than high.
“Canadians are becoming psychologically callous to all things Trump,” Angolano said. “The trade war was supposed to radicalize Canadians into economic nationalists. Instead, as the immediate shock faded, the willingness to sacrifice softened.”
Gas prices, driven up by the conflict in Iran, are certainly a contributing factor. The drop is sharpest among younger Canadians, Liberal voters (high EPI down 12 points since January), and undecided voters (high EPI cut in half, from 31% to 14%).
The Say-Do Gap — In Reverse
The more striking finding is what hasn’t changed. Despite the shift in attitude, purchasing behaviour has remained steady. In December, 51% of Canadians reported doing all three buy-Canadian purchasing actions. Today, that number sits at 50%.
The “say-do” gap usually describes respondents who express an intention but don’t follow through. Here, the pattern runs in reverse: Canadians are acting more patriotically than they are willing to say they believe in it.
“Actions are stickier than ideology,” Angolano said. “We are checking the labels, we are choosing the Canadian product. But right now, Canadians see them as small frictions, not commitments.”
The attitude is softening because the underlying question remains open. At Davos, Carney was blunt: “The old order is not coming back. Nostalgia is not a strategy.” Poilievre told Joe Rogan the opposite — that the tariffs and the 51st state rhetoric are a distraction from a fundamentally sound relationship worth restoring.
They both can’t be right. Canadians are buying Canadian while they wait to find out which one is.
“The EPI is showing a public that is patriotically engaged but ideologically unresolved,” Angolano said. “When Canadians finally decide whether Carney or Poilievre is right about the permanence of this rupture, the EPI will show it first.”
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 23rd-24th, 20026 among a sample of 1295 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones.
The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
