Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 33, NDP 27, OLP 27, Green 7
(TORONTO, 3 October 2023) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a six-point lead over the NDP and the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll first published in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1010 Canadian adults 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on September 26-27th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 33.4%, while the NDP led by Marit Stiles has 27.4%. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by interim leader John Fraser has 26.7%, and the Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 6.7%. “The fallout from the Greenbelt scandal has hit the PCs hard as they have lost eight points of support since last year’s election,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano. “But they would still win a majority if an election were held today with these numbers.” “This is because both the NDP and the Liberals are strong and cancel each other in many Ontario ridings,” continued Angolano. “This situation, coupled with the Tories’ strength in the Greater Toronto Area, means that the PCs are still at an advantage if Ontarians went to the polls today.” The NDP has a ten-point lead over the PCs and the Liberals in Toronto, while the PCs lead by eleven over the Liberals in the GTA. While they find themselves behind the NDP in Eastern Ontario, the PCs lead in South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. Crombie most preferred to lead the Ontario LiberalsWith the Ontario Liberals electing a new leader in December, the survey also presented respondents multiple hypothetical ballot scenarios with each leadership candidate as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. This poll was completed before Adil Shamji dropped out of the race. Current Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie performs the best among all leadership candidates, with 29% of Ontarians saying they would vote Liberal if she were leader. She is followed by Beaches-East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith with 22% and then by Kingston and the Islands MPP Ted Hsu 20%. Both Yasir Naqvi and Adil Shamji got 19%. “At this stage, Ontarians are more drawn toward the possibility of a Bonnie Crombie-led OLP than anyone else,” said Angolano. “This might be because she is the best known of all the OLP leadership candidates, but she is the only one adding any value to the OLP brand right now.” When asked which OLP leadership candidate is preferred to lead the party, 29% said Crombie, 9% said Erskine-Smith, 6% picked Ted Hsu, 3% selected Naqvi, while 1% said Shamji. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from September 26th-27th, 2023, among a sample of 1010 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: CAQ 34, PQ 19, QS 15, PLQ 14, PCQ 14
(TORONTO, 28 September 2023) – The governing Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Francois Legault has a sixteen-point lead over the Parti Quebecois, a Pallas Data poll has found. In its inaugural Quebec poll, Pallas surveyed 1095 adults living in Quebec 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on September 26th-27th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 34%, while the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 19%. Three parties follow them in a three-way tie with 15%: Quebec Solidaire led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, the opposition Quebec Liberals led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime. “The shine has come off the CAQ somewhat since their election win last year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “They would still win an election if one were held today, but they have lost support to the Parti Quebecois and the Quebec Conservatives.” The CAQ won the 2022 Quebec election with just under 41% of the vote. The CAQ draws their support from outside the Montreal and Quebec City metropolitan areas, where they have 55.5% support, followed by the PQ with 12%. They also lead in the Montreal metropolitan area by nearly six points. The CAQ has 26%, while the PQ and the Liberals have 19% each. Quebec solidaire has 18%. “The CAQ is in a three-way tie with the Liberals and Quebec solidaire, and enjoy nearly a six-point lead over the pequistes in the Montreal suburbs,” added Dr. Angolano. “This would put them in pole position should an election be held today.” However, the situation is not as rosy for the CAQ in the Quebec City metropolitan area. The CAQ finds itself in a distant third with 14%, behind the Quebec Conservatives with 35% and the PQ with 30%. “These numbers are particularly interesting with a by-election in the Quebec City riding of Jean-Talon on October 2nd,” continued Dr. Angolano. “As political followers will know, by-elections are very different creatures than general elections as they are very dependent on voter turnout capabilities of the campaigns, voter turnout and motivation.” “That said, it would be a surprise if the CAQ were to win comfortably on Monday given these results.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from September 26th-27th, 2023, among a sample of 1095 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Ford PCs Hurt By Greenbelt Handling, But Still Maintain Lead
(TORONTO, 1 September 2023) – Ontarians strongly disapprove of how the Progressive Conservative government has handled the process of opening up the Greenbelt for development, a new Pallas Data survey has found. However, the PCs still maintain a ten percent lead over the opposition Liberals and the NDP. “To put it mildly, Ontarians are angry with how the Ford PCs have handled the Greenland swaps,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “They think the whole process has been corrupt and want the RCMP to investigate.” Village Media commissioned the survey for The Trillium. It surveyed 940 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections on August 28th-29th, 2023. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level. “The last thing Doug Ford wants is to be seen as corrupt,” continued Angolano. “People already have that deep suspicion of politicians as it is, and no elected official needs to have the public thinking they found proof of it.” 47.1% of Ontarians said they strongly agreed that the Ontario government’s process of selecting lands from the Greenbelt for development was corrupt, with a further 9% saying they somewhat agreed. 72% think the RCMP should investigate, including 58% of those who voted PC in the 2022 provincial election. “The Ford PCs have a problem on their hands and need to change the channel quickly,” added Angolano. “The claim made by the Premier that Greenbelt swap process is needed to build more homes, and asking people to forget about how these swaps are happening, is not being accepted by the public.” Most Ontarians also do not want to see the Greenbelt open for development. 60% said that all the Greenbelt land should remain protected, 21% said some land should be unprotected, and 12% said all land should be opened for housing development. “Ontarians are proud of the Greenbelt and think it should stay intact,” added Angolano. “The reasons may be NIMBYism, a desire to protect green spaces, or a bit of both.” “Or it could be that the perceived corruption of the Greenbelt process has tainted the idea of developing some Greenbelt land so much for the public that they are against the idea fully.” The PCs still lead over the Ontario Liberals and NDP in voting intention. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford have 37%, the Liberals led by interim leader John Fraser have 27%, and the NDP with Marit Stiles at the helm has 26%. The Greens led by Mike Schreiner have 5%. “This is the silver lining for the PCs – the recent scandal hasn’t hurt them in voting intention too much yet,” said Angolano. “Premier Ford and the PCs would easily win a majority government in an election were held today.” “That said, the story of the Greenbelt swaps is ongoing, and more news can come out that could damage the Ford government further.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on August 28-29th, 2023, among a sample of 940 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. This survey was sponsored by Village Media. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Canadians Think Federal Government Is Most To Blame For Housing Crisis
(TORONTO, 23 August 2023) – Against a backdrop of deep pessimism about the Canadian economy, over a third of Canadians blame the current housing crisis on the federal government – significantly more than the provinces, municipal governments, and the Bank of Canada, a Pallas Data poll has found. Pallas Data surveyed 1021 Canadian adults 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 16th-17th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. When asked who was the most to blame for the current housing crisis, 37.2% of respondents said that the federal government, followed by the provincial government (18.5%), and the Bank of Canada and its handling of interest rates (9 %). 7.3% said municipal governments and/or regional councils were most to blame, while 7.1% cited banks and their mortgage policies. “The old truism that perception is reality applies here,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Housing is indeed a provincial responsibility, but Canadians think that the federal government is responsible for the crisis.” “So the Trudeau government is faced with two options,” continued Angolano. “They could dismiss these results as a product of a disinformation campaign where the federal government is wrongly held responsible for a problem that is not under their control.” “Or the Liberals could interpret these results as a cry for help from Canadians. They expect leadership from their federal government on a difficult challenge facing the country.” Respondents from every demographic were more likely to say that the federal government was the main cause of the current housing crisis except for three groups – Quebecers, Liberal voters, and Bloc voters. The survey also asked Canadians whether they thought the economy was getting worse or better. 55.9% said that they thought the economy was getting much worse, with a further 22% saying that the economy was getting slightly worse. Just under 3% said the economy was doing much better and 7.6% said it was doing slightly better. “A majority of all demographic groups think the economy is doing much worse,” continued Angolano. “This certainly has been a summer of discontent for the Trudeau Liberals. What the future holds remains to be seen.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from August 16-17th, 2023, among a sample of 1021 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 39, LPC 30, NDP 17, Bloc 7, Green 5
(TORONTO, 21 August 2023) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have a nine-point lead over the governing Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In its inaugural federal poll, Pallas surveyed 1021 Canadian adults 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 16th-17th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 39% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 30%. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has 17%, while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 5%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet have 7%, but 29% in Quebec. “The Poilievre Conservatives have had an excellent summer and would be on a cusp of a majority if an election were held today”, said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Poilevre would only need to gain slightly in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic to secure a majority.” The Conservatives lead the Liberals in every region except Quebec and the Atlantic. In Quebec, they find themselves in a statistical tie with the Bloc and the Liberals, which could lead to some very close three-way races in some Quebec ridings if the election were held today. As for the Atlantic, the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a statistical tie, indicating that the Conservatives are poised for a breakthrough in the region. “The Liberals ought to be concerned about these numbers,” continued Angolano. “They can’t lose seats in both the Atlantic region and Ontario if they want to stay in power.” “These results could be the result of one of two things: either this is just a summer malaise that the Liberals have found themselves in before,” continued Angolano. “If so, then the Liberals could rebound.” “Or this could be a hardening shift from Justin Trudeau to Pierre Poilievre in public opinion. If so, Trudeau and the Liberals must reset to shift the tide.” The poll was prepared exclusively for 338 Canada and L’actualité. Today we release the first part of these results. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from August 16-17th, 2023, among a sample of 1021 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: CAQ slide in latest update
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Pallas Canada Poll: CPC Lead By Six Points
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