(TORONTO, 18 March 2024) – The governing United Conservative Party has a seven-point lead over the opposition NDP, a new Pallas Data poll has found.
Pallas surveyed 868 adults, 18 years or older, living in Alberta and eligible to vote in provincial elections from 12-13 March 2024. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Danielle Smith has 52% (-0.6% since the 2023 election). The NDP, currently led by outgoing leader Rachel Notley, has 44.9% support (+0.9%).
“It has almost been a year since the last provincial election, and both the UCP and the NDP find themselves in roughly the same spot today as they did a year ago,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “If an election were held today, the UCP would win a comfortable majority.”
Despite the NDP leading the UCP by thirteen points in Edmonton, the UCP leads the NDP by three points in Calgary and has a thirty-one-point lead in the areas outside of Edmonton and Calgary.
Nenshi best able to retain NDP support
The best-performing candidate was former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi, with 42% of respondents saying they would vote for the NDP if he were leader. Nenshi is followed by former Minister of Justice and Solicitor General Kathleen Ganley (35%), former Deputy Premier Sarah Hoffman, and current Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (both with 34%).
“Naheed Nenshi might be doing better than the other leadership candidates because of name recognition, but I think there is more at work here,” continued Dr. Angolano. “Nenshi can retain more of those who say would vote for the NDP if an election were held today.”
“This tells us that NDP voters do not see Nenshi as an outsider to the party,” he added. “On the contrary, he is best able to keep the base from going elsewhere – more so than the other leadership candidates who are current NDP MLAs.”
The Alberta NDP election will be held on June 22nd, 2024.
The survey also found that Nenshi is best able to attract currently undecided voters to the NDP compared to the other leadership candidates, and that the NDP would do better in Calgary with him as leader if an election were held today.
“If there are any negative feelings towards Nenshi about his time as mayor among Calgarians, then this poll certainly didn’t find them,” said Dr. Angolano. “The results of this survey suggest that two initial criticisms of the Nenshi leadership bid – that he is an outsider to the NDP that might alienate both current NDP voters and Calgarians – do not hold water.”
“We have to be clear here and say this poll measures public perception of the NDP leadership candidates and tests them as hypothetical leaders of their party,” Dr. Angolano concluded. “Winning a leadership race, on the other hand, requires strong on-the-ground organization, the ability to sell memberships, and a strong get-out-the-vote machinery.”
“But a candidate having positive public perception matters because all of these things are fuelled by the feeling that campaign workers and members are backing a winner.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from March 12th-13th, 2024 among a sample of 868 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Alberta.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
