Canadians Think Liberals Would Do Better Without Trudeau, But Less Than One In Five Would Actually Change Their Vote: Pallas Poll
(TORONTO, 17 April 2024)—44 percent of Canadians think that the federal Liberals would do better in the next election if Justin Trudeau resigned. However, only 23 percent said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the Prime Minister were to leave. On April 8th, Pallas Data surveyed 2375 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.% at the 95% confidence level. “It seems as though Canadians expect a Trudeau-less Liberals would do better in the next election based on how they think others will vote, not themselves,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Their own vote, however, would likely not go to the Liberals in the next election, no matter who they have as leader.” “This indicates that Justin Trudeau has become a lightning rod for Liberal fortunes writ large. Canadians would like to see him go, and therefore think the Liberals would do better in the next election without him,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But the fact that only one in five Canadians would actually vote Liberal if he were to quit tells me that the Liberals would likely not do any better with a different leader, and if Trudeau were to go, voters would likely find another reason not to vote Liberal in his absence.” When asked if they were more or less likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau were to resign before the next election, 23 percent said they were more likely to Liberal if the Prime Minister left, with 18 percent saying that they were less likely to vote Liberal. 53 percent said that Trudeau potentially leaving would not affect their vote. On the other hand, 44 percent of Canadians agree with the statement, “The chances of the Liberals winning the election would be better if someone other than Justin Trudeau were running as a leader.” (28 percent strongly agree, 16 percent somewhat agree), compared with 29 percent disagreeing. Older respondents are less likely to believe that the Liberals would do better without Trudeau, which closely correlates with Liberal support, which increases as respondents age. Similarly, Liberals voters are also the least likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau were to resign (33 percent), the group with the highest resistance to change their vote. Deep Pessimism About Personal Finances and Economy Among Canadians The survey also found that 57 percent of Canadians are deeply pessimistic about their household finances. 37 percent said they were deeply pessimistic, and a further twenty percent said they were somewhat pessimistic. This is offset by twenty percent who expressed optimism about their household finances. Canadians are more concerned about the Canadian economy. 64 percent said they were pessimistic about the economy (40 percent said they were deeply pessimistic, with 24 percent saying they were somewhat pessimistic). Only 16 percent said they were optimistic. “Canadians’ concern about the economy and personal finances is a big reason why the Conservatives are doing so well in our polling,” said Dr. Angolano. “A party’s electoral chances are almost always tied to whether voters see them as good stewards of the economy, and on that front, the Liberals are not doing well at all.” Pessimism for both the economy and younger Canadians is higher among younger respondents. For example, nearly half of the respondents (43 percent) between 18 and 34 said they were strongly pessimistic about their current household finances, compared to 29 percent of respondents aged 65 or older. Generation Divide On What Are Perceived As Top Issues 38 percent of Canadians think that inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues facing the country right now, followed by healthcare (15%), housing (14%), and immigration (11%). “James Carville said back in 1992 that it’s about ‘the economy, stupid’ and things haven’t changed in 2024,” said Dr. Angolano. “Yet older respondents are more concerned about health care than they are about the cost of living – health care is the number one issue for Canadians over 65.” “The same applies to housing. Younger Canadians – who are more likely not to own a home – are far more concerned about this issue than older Canadians who likely own homes bought twenty years ago when homes were more affordable and seem less sensitive to the issue,” continued Angolano. “This difference in issue prioritization – coupled with their differing levels of economic pessimism – between older and younger respondents is remarkable. They have almost entirely incompatible views of the country – it is as if they look at Canada through different lenses.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on April 8th, 2024 among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 41, LPC 26, NDP 18, Bloc 7, Green 4
(TORONTO, 12 April 2024) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre maintain a fifteen-point lead over the governing Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On April 8th, Pallas surveyed 2375 Canadian adults 18 or older who were eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 41% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 26%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 18%, while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 30% in Quebec. “The federal scene remains static with the Conservatives maintaining a commanding lead over the Liberals,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Pierre Poilievre would win a substantial majority if the election were held today.” The Conservatives have large leads in every region in the country, most notably an eleven-point lead in seat-rich Ontario over the Liberals and a twenty-point lead over the NDP in British Columbia. Quebec is the only region where the Conservatives do not have a lead. They are in a second-place tie with the Liberals behind the Bloc Quebecois. “I don’t think there is anything Justin Trudeau can do now to move the needle in his favour,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The pre-budget announcements might be good policy, but it seems Canadians have made up their minds about his government and would like a change.” “New policy and better governing aren’t going to change Liberal fortunes—that ship sailed last year. Only the glaring eye of an election campaign might shift public support away from the Conservatives,” continued Angolano. There is a significant gender gap. The Conservatives have a thirty-point lead among men over the Liberals (52% to 22%) but find themselves tied with the Liberals at 31% among women. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on April 8th, 2024 among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Alberta Poll: UCP 52, NDP 45
(TORONTO, 18 March 2024) – The governing United Conservative Party has a seven-point lead over the opposition NDP, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Pallas surveyed 868 adults, 18 years or older, living in Alberta and eligible to vote in provincial elections from 12-13 March 2024. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Danielle Smith has 52% (-0.6% since the 2023 election). The NDP, currently led by outgoing leader Rachel Notley, has 44.9% support (+0.9%). “It has almost been a year since the last provincial election, and both the UCP and the NDP find themselves in roughly the same spot today as they did a year ago,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “If an election were held today, the UCP would win a comfortable majority.” Despite the NDP leading the UCP by thirteen points in Edmonton, the UCP leads the NDP by three points in Calgary and has a thirty-one-point lead in the areas outside of Edmonton and Calgary. Nenshi best able to retain NDP support The best-performing candidate was former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi, with 42% of respondents saying they would vote for the NDP if he were leader. Nenshi is followed by former Minister of Justice and Solicitor General Kathleen Ganley (35%), former Deputy Premier Sarah Hoffman, and current Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (both with 34%). “Naheed Nenshi might be doing better than the other leadership candidates because of name recognition, but I think there is more at work here,” continued Dr. Angolano. “Nenshi can retain more of those who say would vote for the NDP if an election were held today.” “This tells us that NDP voters do not see Nenshi as an outsider to the party,” he added. “On the contrary, he is best able to keep the base from going elsewhere – more so than the other leadership candidates who are current NDP MLAs.” The Alberta NDP election will be held on June 22nd, 2024. The survey also found that Nenshi is best able to attract currently undecided voters to the NDP compared to the other leadership candidates, and that the NDP would do better in Calgary with him as leader if an election were held today. “If there are any negative feelings towards Nenshi about his time as mayor among Calgarians, then this poll certainly didn’t find them,” said Dr. Angolano. “The results of this survey suggest that two initial criticisms of the Nenshi leadership bid – that he is an outsider to the NDP that might alienate both current NDP voters and Calgarians – do not hold water.” “We have to be clear here and say this poll measures public perception of the NDP leadership candidates and tests them as hypothetical leaders of their party,” Dr. Angolano concluded. “Winning a leadership race, on the other hand, requires strong on-the-ground organization, the ability to sell memberships, and a strong get-out-the-vote machinery.” “But a candidate having positive public perception matters because all of these things are fuelled by the feeling that campaign workers and members are backing a winner.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from March 12th-13th, 2024 among a sample of 868 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Alberta. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 35, OLP 32, NDP 22, Green 7
(TORONTO, 20 February 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a three-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll first published in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1121 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on February 10-11th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 34.5% (+1.1% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll). The Ontario Liberals led by newly elected leader Bonnie Crombie have 31.6% (+4.9%), while the NDP led by Marit Stiles has 21.6% (-5.8%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 7.3% (+0.6%). “The Ontario Liberals have gotten a bounce from electing Bonnie Crombie, the former Mayor of Mississauga, mostly at the expense of the NDP,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Liberals have taken the outright lead in Toronto and have made gains in the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area.” The PCs still have substantial leads over the NDP and the Liberals in Eastern Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. They maintain a six-point lead over the Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area, but find themselves four points behind the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor) and tied with the Liberals. “While the Ford PCs would lose most of their seats in Toronto, they may still eke out a small majority over the Liberals with these numbers if an election were held today,” added Angolano. “Otherwise, these numbers could lead to a ‘major minority,’ similar to the one Dalton McGuinty won in 2011.” The survey also asked Ontarians if they thought the Ford government lived up to its 2018 and 2022 campaign slogans. When asked if the Ford government has lived up to its 2018 slogan of governing “for the people,” 21% thought they had lived up to the slogan, while 67% said they had not. “It is not a surprise to see voters give low marks on a government’s performance in the middle of a term,” added Angolano. “But what is noteworthy is that just under four in ten respondents said they voted PC in 2022. This tells us that Ford’s base has concerns about his government’s performance.” The survey also asked Ontarians if they thought the Ford government was doing enough on six critical issues facing Ontarians today, given the Ford PCs campaigned on “getting it done.” The six issues were building roads, building housing, supporting health care, supporting public education, supporting a strong economy, and liberalizing alcohol sales. Ontarians only gave a passing grade to the Ford government on liberalizing alcohol sales, with 52% of respondents saying that the PCs were doing enough on this file. Only 23% said that the Ford government was doing enough to build the housing Ontario needs, and just under a third (32%) said that they were ‘getting it done’ to support a strong economy. “The Ford PCs heavily relied on the ‘Get It Done’ slogan in the last campaign to communicate to the Ontarian voter that they could deliver results,” said Angolano. “Ontarians do not think the Ford PCs have delivered, and there is a significant gap between perceived reality and what voters expect this government to do in its second term.”
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 32, CAQ 21, QS 17, PLQ 15, PCQ 12
(TORONTO, 30 January 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Parti Quebecois have increased their lead over the governing Coalition Avenir de Quebec since November. Pallas surveyed 1175 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on January 24, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 32% (+2% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in November), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 21% (-3%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, has 17% (+1%), and the opposition Quebec Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, has 15% (-1%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime, has 12% (+1%). “The PQ has successfully increased their lead in this poll and would win a majority government if an election were held today,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Even though there is still a lot of time left on their mandate, the CAQ must find a way to stop the bleeding of public support sooner rather than later, or they may hit a point of no return,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The autumn of discontent for the CAQ continues into the winter of 2024.” The PQ would win a majority because they have substantial leads in every region in Quebec, i.e., the Montreal suburbs, the Quebec City metropolitan area, and the rest of Quebec. Moreover, the PQ also find themselves tied with the Liberals on the Island- seven points behind Quebec Solidaire. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on January 24, 2024, among a sample of 1175 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 41, LPC 27, NDP 17, Bloc 7, Green 5
(TORONTO, 21 December 2023) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have a fourteen-point lead over the governing Liberals and would win 197 seats if an election were held today, the final Pallas Data poll of 2023 has found. Pallas surveyed 1177 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through a probability-based online panel from 13-15 December 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 41% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 27%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 17%, while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 5%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 31% in Quebec. “2023 will not be a year that the Prime Minister will look back on fondly – at least in terms of public opinion,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Conservatives would win almost 200 seats if an election were held today. What remains to be seen is whether Pierre Poilievre and his team can keep the discipline to take that lead into the next federal election.” The Conservatives lead among men, women, and every age group. They also lead in every region by commanding margins, except for Quebec, where they trail the Bloc Quebecois by three points. Pallas MRP Model Projects 197 Seats For The ConservativesAlso, Pallas Data modelled this survey data with MRP, a powerful statistical technique used for many years in the US and the UK to estimate subnational preferences from national survey data. “Our MRP model projects that the Conservatives would win 197 seats, the Liberals would win 73, the Bloc would get 38 seats, the NDP would get 28, and the Greens would get two. “MRP is a powerful tool for researchers,” said Dr. Angolano. “Now, we can tell you which party would win every one of Canada’s 338 electoral districts just by surveying around 1000 Canadians.” Pallas Data decided to use the current riding boundaries for this MRP model, because those would be boundaries that would be used if an election were held today. The next MRP federal model that Pallas Data will release will use the new boundaries as completed in October 2023. “MRP can take any survey data about Canadians’ thoughts and opinions on anything and model down to very small geographic areas – from federal ridings to forward sortation areas,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The applications for MRP are vast. MRP can help companies focus their digital advertising or learn who their target audience is in exact terms. It can also help political parties and government relations professionals know where they stand in every electoral district regarding their campaigns.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from December 13th to 15th, 2023 among a sample of 1177 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using an online panel that was assembled from probability-based sampling. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey isintended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Quebec Pallas Poll: PQ 30, CAQ 24, PLQ 16, QS 16, PCQ 11
(TORONTO, 24 November 2023) – The Parti Quebecois have taken a stunning lead over the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec, a new Pallas Data Quebec survey has found. Pallas surveyed 1178 adults in Quebec 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on November 17th-18th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.86% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 30% (+11% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in September), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 24% (-10%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, and the opposition Quebec Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay are tied with 16% (both +1%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime has 11% (-4%). “This is the first time that the Parti Quebecois has led any provincial poll in over ten years,” said Pallas founder and CEO Dr. Joseph Angolano. “This is a stunning turn of events in Quebec politics, as the CAQ has dominated it for the last five years.” The PQ is powered by substantial leads over the CAQ among voters under 64, while the CAQ still leads among voters over 65. The CAQ slumped to third in the Quebec City CMA behind the PQ and the Quebec Conservatives, and also find themselves behind the PQ in the Montreal suburbs and the rest of Quebec. “The usual bastions of support for the CAQ, i.e., the regions, the Montreal suburbs, and middle-aged voters, have flocked to the PQ”, continued Angolano. “In short, the PQ have played Pac-Man with the CAQ’s traditional base of support.” “It’s not surprising that the CAQ has lost a lot of support over the last two months as they are having a rough time,” added Angolano. “Minister Girard’s economic statement wasn’t received well, especially when it was followed by a $5-7 million subsidy given to the Los Angeles Kings to play exhibition games in Quebec City by the provincial government.” “All of these things – plus a teachers’ strike, a nurses’ strike, and now a SPGQ strike – has led to what can only be described as an autumn of discontent for the CAQ, and it shows in this survey,” concluded Angolano. “But what will sting the CAQ even more is that all of its support has bled to the PQ – none of it has gone to the other parties.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from November 17th-18th, 2023, among a sample of 1178 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 43, LPC 26, NDP 16, Bloc 7, Green 3
(TORONTO, 26 October 2023) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have a sixteen-point lead over the governing Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. Pallas surveyed 1484 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from 21-22 October 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 43% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 26%. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has 16%, while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 3%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 29% in Quebec. “The governing Liberals are in serious trouble and would get routed if an election were held today,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Conservatives led by Pierre Poilevre lead in every region of the country and would cruise to a majority victory.” The Conservatives find themselves in a three-way statistical tie in Quebec but lead by significant numbers in every other region of the country. In vote-rich Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by nine points, while they are ahead of the Liberals by eight points in the former Liberal stronghold of Atlantic Canada. “It is not enough for the Liberals to say ‘Don’t worry, the election isn’t until 2025’ and hope that Poilievre self-destructs between now and then,” continued Angolano. “The Conservative leader is showing far too much discipline at this point in time for that to happen.” “The Liberals need to do something to turn the tide because this hole may be too big to dig themselves out of,” added Angolano. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from October 21st to 22nd, 2023 among a sample of 1484 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of errorare higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Little Confidence That a Canadian Team Will Win The Stanley Cup This Year
(TORONTO, 24 October 2023) – A new Pallas Data survey found that most Canadians do not think a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup this year. “Canadians think that a Stanley Cup parade on Canadian soil will have to wait at least another year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. 43% of respondents do not think a Canadian team will lift the Cup this year, while 21% think a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup. 36% said that they were unsure. The Montreal Canadiens were the last Canadian NHL team to win the Stanley Cup in 1993, beating the Los Angeles Kings in five games. Pallas surveyed 1484 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from 21-22 October 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level.Leafs, Oilers Seen As Having Best Chance To End Cup DroughtWhen asked which Canadian team has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup this season, 27% said the Toronto Maple Leafs, 21% said the Edmonton Oilers, and 18% said the Montreal Canadiens. “The Leafs and the Oilers had the best records out of all Canadian teams in the NHL last year and are led by superstars Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid, respectively,” said Angolano. “So it’s no surprise respondents see those teams as the top contenders from Canada.” At the time of writing, Draft Kings has the odds of the Maple Leafs winning the Stanley Cup at +900 and the Oilers’ odds at +1100. The Canadiens’ odds are +25000. The Montreal Canadiens: Canada’s Favourite Hockey TeamThe survey also found that the Montreal Canadiens, the last Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, are Canada’s most popular NHL team. 29% of those surveyed said the Habs were their favourite NHL team, followed by the Leafs with 22%. The Oilers were next with 10%, followed by the Calgary Flames with 8%, then the Canucks (6%), the Ottawa Senators (5%), and the Winnipeg Jets (4%). “Respondents were more likely to pick their favourite team as the most likely to win the Cup,” said Angolano. “This is likely why the respondents are picking the Canadiens to win the Cup – who likely won’t make the playoffs this year – ahead of the Flames, Jets, and Canucks.” The Canadiens are the most popular team in their native Quebec (70%) and Atlantic Canada, and are also significantly popular in Ontario and the Prairies. The Leafs are the most popular in Ontario, with 45%. 42% of Albertans said the Oilers were their favourite team, compared to 29% who said the Flames. “I fondly remember the Battle of Alberta from the 1980s, but in terms of popularity today, it is not much of a battle as it’s Advantage Oilers,” said Angolano. It is interesting to note that over half of Canadians said that the Leafs or the Habs are their favourite team,” concluded Angolano. “The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs will always be Canadian institutions, as Canadian as the RCMP and maple syrup.”
Despite Troubles Nationally, the LPC Still Lead in Quebec
(TORONTO, 10 October 2023) – The federal Liberals hold a seven-point lead over the Conservatives in the province of Quebec, a Pallas Data poll has found. In the second part of its inaugural Quebec poll, Pallas surveyed 1095 adults living in Quebec 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 16th-17th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 34% support (unchanged since the last election). The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 28% (-4% since the last election), while the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have 25% (+6%). The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 7% (-3%), while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 3% (+1%). “The Conservatives are definitely in the ascendancy in Quebec,” said Pallas Data CEO and Founder Dr. Joseph Angolano, “While the Liberals are holding steady, it would be the Conservatives under Poilievre gaining seats, most notably in the Quebec City region.” In the Montreal area, the Liberals have almost a ten-point lead over the Bloc and a fifteen-point lead over the Conservatives, powered mostly by a huge lead on the island of Montreal (45% compared to 23% for the Bloc and 15% for the Conservatives). The Conservatives, however, have a nine-point lead over the Bloc (35% to 26%), with the Liberals in third place with 21%. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from September 26th-27th, 2023, among a sample of 1095 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.