Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8
(TORONTO, 11 June 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1136 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 4th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 39.4% (+4.9% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in February). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 26.5% (-5.1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22.6% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 8.3% (+1%). “It has been a good 2024 for Premier Ford so far”, said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PCs have a comfortable lead over the Liberals and would comfortably win a majority of an election were held today.” The Ford PCs have significant leads in every region, including the seat-rich areas of the Greater Toronto Area and Toronto proper. The Liberals, on the other hand, have an eight-point lead over the PCs and the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). “These numbers indicate that little has changed since the last election,” said Dr. Angolano. “The PCs are within the margin of error of what they got in 2022, and the Liberals and the NDP are relatively close to each other.” An Early Election The survey also asked Ontarians whether they would be more or less likely to vote PC if an early election were called. Premier Ford has repeatedly refused to rule out an early election call over the last week when reporters have asked. 31% said they would be less likely to vote PC if an election were called early. 10% said they would be more likely to vote PC, while 52% said an early election call would not impact their vote. “An early election would not impact the PC’s electoral chances,” added Dr. Angolano. “What it would mean is that those voters that have already decided that they would never vote for the PCs would use an early election call as another reason not to vote for them.” One in four PC voters said they would be more likely to vote PC if there were an early election, with only 14% saying they would be less likely to vote PC if Ontarians headed to the polls early. “The Liberals, who are in second place, would need every one of those 14% to switch their votes from the PCs to them to get to a PC minority,” said Angolano. “And that scenario of perfect voter conversion is simply not going to happen.” The PCs Will Win Because They Can Retain Their Base The survey also asked Ontarians to identify whether strategic or sincere reasons best explain their vote. “The PCs have enough voters among both hard and soft PC voters to win an election despite the voter pool is larger for the opposition parties than it is for the PCs,” said Angolano. “The bad news for the NDP and the Liberals is that the soft PC voters are fine with an early election call and the general performance of the Ford government,” Angolano continued. When asked about whether they thought the Ford government was doing a good or bad job so far in 2024, 41% of Ontarians said that they were doing a very bad job, 15% said they were doing a somewhat bad job, 12% said they were doing neither a good or bad job, 16% said they were doing a somewhat good job, while 13% said they were doing a very good job. “It seems confusing that Ontarians are giving a big ‘thumbs down’ to Ford but likely winning re-election easily,” said Angolano. “But the plain truth is that PCs are satisfied with how the PCs are doing in 2024.” “The PCs understand that they can’t and won’t be all things to all people,” concluded Angolano. “But they can focus on keeping their voters happy and onside, which is why they’re on a path to an easy re-election.”
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 33, CAQ 21, PLQ 17, QS 16, PCQ 11
(TORONTO, 12 June 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Parti Quebecois are twelve points ahead of the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec. Pallas surveyed 1339 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 8, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 33% (no change since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in April), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 21% (+1%). The Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, have 17% (-6%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, has 16% (+3%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec, with Eric Duhaime as leader, has 11% (no change). “The CAQ can find some solace with these numbers in that they are in second place again, but the Parti Quebecois are firmly in control,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The pequistes would win a comfortable majority if an election were held today.” The Parti Quebecois finds themselves in every region in Quebec except on the island of Montreal, where they find themselves in third place behind the Liberals and Quebec Solidaire. They are ten points ahead of the CAQ in the Montreal suburbs and fifteen points ahead of the CAQ in the Quebec City metropolitan area and in the regions, respectively. Plamondon Has The Best Impression Among Quebecers, Duhaime Has The Worst The survey also asked Quebecers whether they had a positive or negative impression of the four major party leaders. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is the only leader with a net positive impression among Quebecers, with a net score of +8%. All the other leaders have a net negative impression. 23% said they had a very favourable impression of Plamandon, with 17% saying they had a somewhat favourable impression of him. In contrast, 20% said that they had a very unfavourable impression of Plamondon, while 12% said that they had a somewhat unfavourable impression of him. Nadeau-Dubois had the next best net favourability rating, with -12%, followed by Legault with -36%, and Duhaime with 49%. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on June 8th, 2024, among a sample of 1339 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: Conservatives 38, NDP 37, BC United 13, Green 9
(TORONTO, 16 May 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Conservative Party of British Columbia, who only have two seats in the British Columbia legislature, has a slender one-point lead over the governing NDP. Pallas surveyed 848 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on May 14, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 38% (+36% since the 2020 election), while the governing NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 37% (-11%). BC United, led by Kevin Falcon, has 13% support (-25%), while the Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 9% (-6%). “There has been a complete sea change in British Columbia politics,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Right-of-centre voters have left BC United and flooded to the BC Conservatives.” “This shift has happened because the BC Liberals changed its name to BC United,” said Dr. Angolano. “Branding matters in politics, and BC United is learning that lesson the hard way.” There is a significant gender split. The Conservatives lead by fourteen points among men but are ten points behind the NDP among women. The age breakouts also show interesting differences. Support for the Conservatives is highest among respondents between 18 and 34 and drops among older respondents, while the NDP gains support among older respondents. “Despite the Conservatives having the tiniest of leads, the NDP would still win an election if it were held today with these numbers,” continued Angolano. Testing Political Knowledge: A Branding Vacuum Created by BC United The poll also asked three questions measuring knowledge about BC’s political parties. “We wanted to test if British Columbians understand what was going on with BC United and the BC Conservatives,” said Angolano. “So we felt the best way of measuring that was to create an index of the three questions to measure political knowledge.” The respondent was given one point if they answered the question correctly. If they answered the question incorrectly, they lost a point. Zero points were awarded if they said they didn’t know the answer. If a respondent got a score of 3, it means they got all the questions correct, while a score of -3 indicates that they answered all the questions incorrectly. Most voters (61%) are net positives on the knowledge index, getting more questions right than wrong. Twenty percent got all the questions correct. “Generally, British Columbians know that the BC Liberals are no more and that BC United is the Official Opposition, and likely know what their options will be on the ballot come October,” said Angolano. “Our research shows that there is not much brand confusion regarding BC United being the new iteration of the BC Liberals,” he continued. “Instead, the name change has created a branding vacuum by BC United abandoning the small-l brand.” That said, the NDP has a lead among respondents who got a perfect score of 3, indicating that the NDP might do better during an election period where more information is shared about these political parties and knowledge increases. “BC United’s support does not increase the more knowledgeable voters are,” Angolano said. “This indicates that the hope that former BC Liberal voters would migrate to BC United once they started paying attention when the election starts is incorrect.” “If anything, the NDP will benefit from the added attention, and voters become better informed, not the Liberals.” The three questions were true/false questions with a not sure option: Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on May 14th, 2024, among a sample of 848 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 33, PLQ 23, CAQ 20, QS 13, PCQ 11
(TORONTO, 29 April 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Parti Quebecois are still in the lead in voting intentions in Quebec, while the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec has slid to third. Pallas surveyed 1256 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from April 20-21 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 33% (+1% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in January), while the opposition Liberals led by interim leader Marc Tanguay climbed to 23% (+8%). The CAQ led by Francois Legault has 20% (-1%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, has 13% (-4%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime, has 11% (-1%). “Paul St Pierre Plamondon’s speech a week ago guaranteeing a referendum by 2030 if the PQ were elected certainly has woken up Quebec’s non-francophone vote,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “That demographic has come flying back to the Quebec Liberals, who have traditionally been the defender of minority rights and hard federalism in Quebec.” “Future polling will determine whether this Liberal rise is ephemeral or permanent,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But if all it takes for the Liberals to climb back up in the polls is a hard sovereignty speech by Plamondon, and given that the Liberals do not have a permanent leader, I would hazard to guess that this Liberal bump will be gone sooner rather than later.” The Liberals’ rise is due entirely to their increased support among Quebec non-francophones. In this survey, 67% of non-francophones said they would vote for the Liberals, an increase from 48% in January. This increased support translates into better showings for the Liberals regionally, most notably in Montreal. The Liberals are tied two points ahead of the Parti Quebecois in the Montreal area, five points ahead of the PQ in the suburbs, and fifteen points ahead of the Pequistes on the Island. In the Quebec City area and the regions, the PQ has strong leads over the Quebec Conservatives and the CAQ respectively. “While the Liberals are up, the Parti Quebecois would still win a majority if an election were held today,” said Angolano. Pushing the Sovereignty Button Hard Would Hurt the PQThe survey also found that 39% would vote for Quebec sovereignty today, compared to 50% who said they would vote against it. Although support for sovereignty is robust, Quebec said they were less likely to vote for the PQ if they promised to hold a referendum after the election should they win. While 43% said pushing for a referendum would not affect their likelihood of voting for the PQ in the election, 38% said they were less likely to vote PQ if they promised to hold a referendum in the next election. 13% said that they were more likely to vote for the Parti Quebecois. The survey also asked if they wanted to hold a referendum on sovereignty by 2030, as Plamondon promised. 54% said they did not want a referendum by then, with 37% saying they would want one. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted from April 20th to 21st, 2024, among a sample of 1256 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Canadians Think Liberals Would Do Better Without Trudeau, But Less Than One In Five Would Actually Change Their Vote: Pallas Poll
(TORONTO, 17 April 2024)—44 percent of Canadians think that the federal Liberals would do better in the next election if Justin Trudeau resigned. However, only 23 percent said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the Prime Minister were to leave. On April 8th, Pallas Data surveyed 2375 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.% at the 95% confidence level. “It seems as though Canadians expect a Trudeau-less Liberals would do better in the next election based on how they think others will vote, not themselves,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Their own vote, however, would likely not go to the Liberals in the next election, no matter who they have as leader.” “This indicates that Justin Trudeau has become a lightning rod for Liberal fortunes writ large. Canadians would like to see him go, and therefore think the Liberals would do better in the next election without him,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But the fact that only one in five Canadians would actually vote Liberal if he were to quit tells me that the Liberals would likely not do any better with a different leader, and if Trudeau were to go, voters would likely find another reason not to vote Liberal in his absence.” When asked if they were more or less likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau were to resign before the next election, 23 percent said they were more likely to Liberal if the Prime Minister left, with 18 percent saying that they were less likely to vote Liberal. 53 percent said that Trudeau potentially leaving would not affect their vote. On the other hand, 44 percent of Canadians agree with the statement, “The chances of the Liberals winning the election would be better if someone other than Justin Trudeau were running as a leader.” (28 percent strongly agree, 16 percent somewhat agree), compared with 29 percent disagreeing. Older respondents are less likely to believe that the Liberals would do better without Trudeau, which closely correlates with Liberal support, which increases as respondents age. Similarly, Liberals voters are also the least likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau were to resign (33 percent), the group with the highest resistance to change their vote. Deep Pessimism About Personal Finances and Economy Among Canadians The survey also found that 57 percent of Canadians are deeply pessimistic about their household finances. 37 percent said they were deeply pessimistic, and a further twenty percent said they were somewhat pessimistic. This is offset by twenty percent who expressed optimism about their household finances. Canadians are more concerned about the Canadian economy. 64 percent said they were pessimistic about the economy (40 percent said they were deeply pessimistic, with 24 percent saying they were somewhat pessimistic). Only 16 percent said they were optimistic. “Canadians’ concern about the economy and personal finances is a big reason why the Conservatives are doing so well in our polling,” said Dr. Angolano. “A party’s electoral chances are almost always tied to whether voters see them as good stewards of the economy, and on that front, the Liberals are not doing well at all.” Pessimism for both the economy and younger Canadians is higher among younger respondents. For example, nearly half of the respondents (43 percent) between 18 and 34 said they were strongly pessimistic about their current household finances, compared to 29 percent of respondents aged 65 or older. Generation Divide On What Are Perceived As Top Issues 38 percent of Canadians think that inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues facing the country right now, followed by healthcare (15%), housing (14%), and immigration (11%). “James Carville said back in 1992 that it’s about ‘the economy, stupid’ and things haven’t changed in 2024,” said Dr. Angolano. “Yet older respondents are more concerned about health care than they are about the cost of living – health care is the number one issue for Canadians over 65.” “The same applies to housing. Younger Canadians – who are more likely not to own a home – are far more concerned about this issue than older Canadians who likely own homes bought twenty years ago when homes were more affordable and seem less sensitive to the issue,” continued Angolano. “This difference in issue prioritization – coupled with their differing levels of economic pessimism – between older and younger respondents is remarkable. They have almost entirely incompatible views of the country – it is as if they look at Canada through different lenses.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on April 8th, 2024 among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 41, LPC 26, NDP 18, Bloc 7, Green 4
(TORONTO, 12 April 2024) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre maintain a fifteen-point lead over the governing Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On April 8th, Pallas surveyed 2375 Canadian adults 18 or older who were eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 41% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 26%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 18%, while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 30% in Quebec. “The federal scene remains static with the Conservatives maintaining a commanding lead over the Liberals,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Pierre Poilievre would win a substantial majority if the election were held today.” The Conservatives have large leads in every region in the country, most notably an eleven-point lead in seat-rich Ontario over the Liberals and a twenty-point lead over the NDP in British Columbia. Quebec is the only region where the Conservatives do not have a lead. They are in a second-place tie with the Liberals behind the Bloc Quebecois. “I don’t think there is anything Justin Trudeau can do now to move the needle in his favour,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The pre-budget announcements might be good policy, but it seems Canadians have made up their minds about his government and would like a change.” “New policy and better governing aren’t going to change Liberal fortunes—that ship sailed last year. Only the glaring eye of an election campaign might shift public support away from the Conservatives,” continued Angolano. There is a significant gender gap. The Conservatives have a thirty-point lead among men over the Liberals (52% to 22%) but find themselves tied with the Liberals at 31% among women. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on April 8th, 2024 among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Alberta Poll: UCP 52, NDP 45
(TORONTO, 18 March 2024) – The governing United Conservative Party has a seven-point lead over the opposition NDP, a new Pallas Data poll has found. Pallas surveyed 868 adults, 18 years or older, living in Alberta and eligible to vote in provincial elections from 12-13 March 2024. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Danielle Smith has 52% (-0.6% since the 2023 election). The NDP, currently led by outgoing leader Rachel Notley, has 44.9% support (+0.9%). “It has almost been a year since the last provincial election, and both the UCP and the NDP find themselves in roughly the same spot today as they did a year ago,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “If an election were held today, the UCP would win a comfortable majority.” Despite the NDP leading the UCP by thirteen points in Edmonton, the UCP leads the NDP by three points in Calgary and has a thirty-one-point lead in the areas outside of Edmonton and Calgary. Nenshi best able to retain NDP support The best-performing candidate was former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi, with 42% of respondents saying they would vote for the NDP if he were leader. Nenshi is followed by former Minister of Justice and Solicitor General Kathleen Ganley (35%), former Deputy Premier Sarah Hoffman, and current Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (both with 34%). “Naheed Nenshi might be doing better than the other leadership candidates because of name recognition, but I think there is more at work here,” continued Dr. Angolano. “Nenshi can retain more of those who say would vote for the NDP if an election were held today.” “This tells us that NDP voters do not see Nenshi as an outsider to the party,” he added. “On the contrary, he is best able to keep the base from going elsewhere – more so than the other leadership candidates who are current NDP MLAs.” The Alberta NDP election will be held on June 22nd, 2024. The survey also found that Nenshi is best able to attract currently undecided voters to the NDP compared to the other leadership candidates, and that the NDP would do better in Calgary with him as leader if an election were held today. “If there are any negative feelings towards Nenshi about his time as mayor among Calgarians, then this poll certainly didn’t find them,” said Dr. Angolano. “The results of this survey suggest that two initial criticisms of the Nenshi leadership bid – that he is an outsider to the NDP that might alienate both current NDP voters and Calgarians – do not hold water.” “We have to be clear here and say this poll measures public perception of the NDP leadership candidates and tests them as hypothetical leaders of their party,” Dr. Angolano concluded. “Winning a leadership race, on the other hand, requires strong on-the-ground organization, the ability to sell memberships, and a strong get-out-the-vote machinery.” “But a candidate having positive public perception matters because all of these things are fuelled by the feeling that campaign workers and members are backing a winner.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from March 12th-13th, 2024 among a sample of 868 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Alberta. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 35, OLP 32, NDP 22, Green 7
(TORONTO, 20 February 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a three-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll first published in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1121 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on February 10-11th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 34.5% (+1.1% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll). The Ontario Liberals led by newly elected leader Bonnie Crombie have 31.6% (+4.9%), while the NDP led by Marit Stiles has 21.6% (-5.8%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 7.3% (+0.6%). “The Ontario Liberals have gotten a bounce from electing Bonnie Crombie, the former Mayor of Mississauga, mostly at the expense of the NDP,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Liberals have taken the outright lead in Toronto and have made gains in the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area.” The PCs still have substantial leads over the NDP and the Liberals in Eastern Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. They maintain a six-point lead over the Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area, but find themselves four points behind the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor) and tied with the Liberals. “While the Ford PCs would lose most of their seats in Toronto, they may still eke out a small majority over the Liberals with these numbers if an election were held today,” added Angolano. “Otherwise, these numbers could lead to a ‘major minority,’ similar to the one Dalton McGuinty won in 2011.” The survey also asked Ontarians if they thought the Ford government lived up to its 2018 and 2022 campaign slogans. When asked if the Ford government has lived up to its 2018 slogan of governing “for the people,” 21% thought they had lived up to the slogan, while 67% said they had not. “It is not a surprise to see voters give low marks on a government’s performance in the middle of a term,” added Angolano. “But what is noteworthy is that just under four in ten respondents said they voted PC in 2022. This tells us that Ford’s base has concerns about his government’s performance.” The survey also asked Ontarians if they thought the Ford government was doing enough on six critical issues facing Ontarians today, given the Ford PCs campaigned on “getting it done.” The six issues were building roads, building housing, supporting health care, supporting public education, supporting a strong economy, and liberalizing alcohol sales. Ontarians only gave a passing grade to the Ford government on liberalizing alcohol sales, with 52% of respondents saying that the PCs were doing enough on this file. Only 23% said that the Ford government was doing enough to build the housing Ontario needs, and just under a third (32%) said that they were ‘getting it done’ to support a strong economy. “The Ford PCs heavily relied on the ‘Get It Done’ slogan in the last campaign to communicate to the Ontarian voter that they could deliver results,” said Angolano. “Ontarians do not think the Ford PCs have delivered, and there is a significant gap between perceived reality and what voters expect this government to do in its second term.”
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 32, CAQ 21, QS 17, PLQ 15, PCQ 12
(TORONTO, 30 January 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Parti Quebecois have increased their lead over the governing Coalition Avenir de Quebec since November. Pallas surveyed 1175 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on January 24, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 32% (+2% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in November), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 21% (-3%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, has 17% (+1%), and the opposition Quebec Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, has 15% (-1%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime, has 12% (+1%). “The PQ has successfully increased their lead in this poll and would win a majority government if an election were held today,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Even though there is still a lot of time left on their mandate, the CAQ must find a way to stop the bleeding of public support sooner rather than later, or they may hit a point of no return,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The autumn of discontent for the CAQ continues into the winter of 2024.” The PQ would win a majority because they have substantial leads in every region in Quebec, i.e., the Montreal suburbs, the Quebec City metropolitan area, and the rest of Quebec. Moreover, the PQ also find themselves tied with the Liberals on the Island- seven points behind Quebec Solidaire. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on January 24, 2024, among a sample of 1175 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 41, LPC 27, NDP 17, Bloc 7, Green 5
(TORONTO, 21 December 2023) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have a fourteen-point lead over the governing Liberals and would win 197 seats if an election were held today, the final Pallas Data poll of 2023 has found. Pallas surveyed 1177 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through a probability-based online panel from 13-15 December 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 41% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 27%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 17%, while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 5%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 31% in Quebec. “2023 will not be a year that the Prime Minister will look back on fondly – at least in terms of public opinion,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Conservatives would win almost 200 seats if an election were held today. What remains to be seen is whether Pierre Poilievre and his team can keep the discipline to take that lead into the next federal election.” The Conservatives lead among men, women, and every age group. They also lead in every region by commanding margins, except for Quebec, where they trail the Bloc Quebecois by three points. Pallas MRP Model Projects 197 Seats For The ConservativesAlso, Pallas Data modelled this survey data with MRP, a powerful statistical technique used for many years in the US and the UK to estimate subnational preferences from national survey data. “Our MRP model projects that the Conservatives would win 197 seats, the Liberals would win 73, the Bloc would get 38 seats, the NDP would get 28, and the Greens would get two. “MRP is a powerful tool for researchers,” said Dr. Angolano. “Now, we can tell you which party would win every one of Canada’s 338 electoral districts just by surveying around 1000 Canadians.” Pallas Data decided to use the current riding boundaries for this MRP model, because those would be boundaries that would be used if an election were held today. The next MRP federal model that Pallas Data will release will use the new boundaries as completed in October 2023. “MRP can take any survey data about Canadians’ thoughts and opinions on anything and model down to very small geographic areas – from federal ridings to forward sortation areas,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The applications for MRP are vast. MRP can help companies focus their digital advertising or learn who their target audience is in exact terms. It can also help political parties and government relations professionals know where they stand in every electoral district regarding their campaigns.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from December 13th to 15th, 2023 among a sample of 1177 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using an online panel that was assembled from probability-based sampling. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey isintended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.