Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 41, OLP 28, NDP 22, Green 7
(TORONTO, 23 October 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 996 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 15th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 41% (+2% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in June). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 7% (-1%). “The Ford government is still in cruise control,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. ” If an election were held today, a PC majority with the Liberals in opposition would be the likeliest scenario.” The PCs have significant leads in every region of the province, most notably the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. Toronto is a little more competitive, where the Liberals are three points behind the PCs, with the NDP in third place at 24%. The Proposed 401 Tunnelled Express Way: A Possible Banana Peel For Ford? The survey asked respondents whether they would support building a tunnelled expressway under the 401. Premier Ford has said that a feasibility study will examine the possibility of building a tunnel underneath Canada’s busiest highway to add more lanes and relieve congestion. A total of 63% said that they opposed the building of the tunnel (52% said that they were strongly opposed), while 18% said that they were in favour of it. Opposition is based chiefly among supporters of the opposition parties. Still, there is also significant opposition from PC voters (a total of 40% of PC voters said they were opposed, while 34% said they supported the idea). A total of 28% said they were more likely to support building a tunnel underneath the 401 if it included a transit line, including 36% of respondents in Toronto, and 32% of respondents living in the Greater Toronto Area. More worryingly for the PCs, 39% of respondents said they would certainly vote against a party that promises to build the 401 tunnel, with 16% of PC voters saying that they would do so. “This should give the Ford government some pause and think about their messaging on the tunnel to Ontarians,” said Angolano. “It is highly unlikely that every PC voter who said they would not vote for a party that would build a tunnel would go out and vote for another party in the next election.” “But there are concerns with the proposed project. Commuters and Toronto drivers see all the congestion due to construction and are likely worried they might see something similar happen with the 401.” Little Concern About an Early Election The survey also asked respondents about their thoughts on the possibility of an early election, as there is speculation that one could be held in the Spring of 2025. 29% said they don’t want an early election, while 20% said they favour one. 31% said that they would be in favour of an early election if there were a good reason to have one, while 19% said that they didn’t care when the election was called. “Usually, when we ask questions about an early election, respondents tend to disapprove of an early election strongly,” said Angolano. “The fact that there isn’t much opposition to an early election means that Premier Ford can call one without fear of public backlash.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 15th, 2024 among a sample of 996 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Data: Most Accurate Polling Firm of 2024 British Columbia Election
(TORONTO, 20 OCTOBER 2024)— Pallas Data is the most accurate polling firm for the 2024 British Columbia provincial election. Pallas’ final poll only had 3% total error from the preliminary election results. This was the lowest total error of the ten polling firms that released estimates of British Columbians’ voting intentions ahead of the October 19th vote. “This is a great achievement for Pallas Data, as we got the closest to the actual results in the first election in which we tried to test our firm’s accuracy,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Pallas Data was founded in 2023 in Toronto, ON. We frequently poll federally and provincially, and our polls have been featured in CBC, Radio-Canada, La Presse, Le Devoir, L’actualité, The Trillium, Politico, iPolitics, the National Post, and CTV News. While Pallas Data did end up taking first place, it is worth noting that nearly every polling firm provided close estimates of British Columbians’ intentions. “Often we talk about what goes wrong in the world, but we should also talk about when things go right,” continued Dr. Angolano. “While Pallas Data was the most accurate polling firm in this election, I should note that British Columbia and Canada as a whole are served very well by the Canadian polling industry that works very hard to measure Canadian public opinion accurately.”
Pallas Final British Columbia Election Poll: NDP 45%, Conservatives 42%, Greens 9%
(TORONTO, 18 OCTOBER 2024)—The final Pallas Data poll before tomorrow’s election found that the governing NDP has a three-point lead over the BC Conservatives. The NDP will likely be re-elected in tomorrow’s election. Pallas surveyed 712 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 17-18, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 45% (+1% since Pallas’ last pol). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 42% (-1%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 9% (-2%). “David Eby looks to have done enough to secure a win for the BC NDP, with a majority the likeliest scenario,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “However, the NDP needs a stronger get-out-the-vote operation than the Conservatives to win a majority tomorrow.” The NDP has an eleven-point lead over the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver, while the Conservatives lead by ten in the interior. Vancouver Island looks like a three-way fight, with the NDP leading by four points over the Conservatives and the Greens in third with 20%. “The campaign has had its twists and turns, including the former opposition party completely shutting down its operations to endorse the Conservatives, but it looks like David Eby’s team will win tomorrow.” The NDP will bring a slender lead into election day amidst ambivalence among British Columbians about the province’s direction. Almost half (46%) of respondents said the province is headed in the wrong direction. 39% said the province was headed in the right direction, while 15% said they were unsure. “Whoever wins tomorrow’s election will govern a divided province not only by region – which is nothing new to British Columbia politics – but also a significant generational divide,” said Angolano. “Older British Columbians are happy with the status quo, but younger voters are not, and they are flocking to the BC Conservatives.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from October 16th-17th, 2024 among a sample of 712 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 42%, Conservatives 41%, Greens 14%
(TORONTO, 13 OCTOBER 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the governing NDP maintains a one-point lead over the BC Conservatives, showing no movement since Pallas last polled in August. Pallas surveyed 699 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 12th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 42% (-2% since Pallas’ last poll in August). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 41% (-2%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 14% (+3%). “This campaign feels like a long tactical boxing match of two heavyweights unable to land a knockout blow in the early or middle rounds,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “British Columbians still seem reluctant to give either the NDP or the BC Conservatives the lead with less than a week to go.” “Things can change in the final week, of course, and I’m certain that the provincial election will be a topic of conversation at the dinner table this Thanksgiving,” continued Angolano. British Columbians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong Direction – StillA further sign of stasis among the electoral is there has been no change in British Columbians’ thinking about whether the province is headed in the wrong direction or not. Almost identical to Pallas’ polling last August, almost half (48%) of British Columbians say the province is headed in the wrong direction. 38% said the province is headed in the right direction. “The voting intention numbers and the question about the direction of the province seem to show that there are two British Columbias,” added Angolano. “One is young, very dissatisfied with the status quo, and more likely to vote for John Rustad and the BC Conservatives. The other British Columbia is older and thinks the province is on the right track, and they are supporting David Eby.” Fursteneau Scores Best Among Party LeadersThe survey also asked respondents about their impressions of the party leaders. Green Party Sonia Fursteneau was the only party leader with a positive net score of +8% (i.e., more respondents said they had a positive impression of the leader than a negative one). Both David Eby and John Rustad had negative net scores. David Eby has a net score of -8%, and John Rustad has a score of -26%. 53% of respondents say they have a negative impression of him, and 42% say they have a negative impression of Eby. “Fursteneau’s favorability ratings have improved undoubtedly because of her strong performance in the leaders’ debate,” said Angolano. “And David Eby can take some solace in the fact that while his favorability ratings are not good, they are better than John Rustad’s.” “This might give a slight edge to the NDP as people make up their minds in the last week of the campaign,” Angolano concluded. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on October 12th, 2024, among a sample of 699 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 44, LPC 22, NDP 19, Green 4
(TORONTO, October 10th 2024) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre lead the governing Liberals by twenty-two points, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On October 5th, Pallas surveyed 1304 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 44% support, while the Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, have 22%. With Jagmeet Singh at the helm, the NDP has 19%, while the Greens, led by Elizabeth May, have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 8%, but 35% in Quebec. “Conservative domination continues,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “As Liberals dip in support, and the Bloc is doing better in Quebec, the more interesting race in the next election might be which party forms the Official Opposition.” The Conservatives have large leads in every region in the country except Quebec, where they are nine points behind the Bloc Quebecois. “Canadians’ federal vote intentions are rather set,” continued Dr. Angolano. “There isn’t much a federal politician can do or say at this point to change voters’ minds. The only thing that might get voters to reconsider their options is a federal election where most Canadians pay attention.” There is a significant gender gap. The Conservatives have a thirty-point lead among men over the Liberals (52% to 22%) but find themselves tied with the Liberals at 31% among women. Canadians Don’t Feel Good About The Economy, But More Bullish About Their Finances The survey also found that a substantial majority of Canadians think the Canadian economy is getting worse. A total of 62% of Canadians believed that the economy was getting worse, with 43% saying that it was getting worse. Only 22% said that the economy is getting better. There is a significant generational gap, with anxiety about the Canadian economy much lower among Canadians older than 65. Moreover, this is a noticeable divide along partisan lines, as Conservative and Bloc voters are far more likely to say that the economy is getting worse, compared to Liberal and NDP voters who are more positive about the economy. That said, Canadians are much more optimistic about the personal finances. 18% said they were very optimistic about their personal finances, with 24% saying they were somewhat optimistic (a total of 42%). In contrast, 15% said they were somewhat pessimistic about their personal finances, and 14% said they were strongly pessimistic (a total of 29%). “This is an interesting paradox we find here,” Angolano concluded. “Even though Canadians are starting to feel better about their finances—no doubt the lower interest rates have helped with that, but that optimism has not spilled over their outlook on the Canadian economy as a whole.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on October 5th, 2024, among a sample of 1304 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
For Second Straight Year, Low Confidence That a Canadian Team Will Win The Stanley Cup This Year: Pallas Data Poll
(TORONTO, 9 October 2024) – Most Canadians do not think a Canadian team will win this year despite the Edmonton Oilers getting so close to winning the Stanley Cup last year, a new Pallas Data survey has found. “One would think that Canadians would be a little more positive about a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup this year given that the Oilers were one game away from winning it all last year, but that’s not the case,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. 38% of respondents do not think a Canadian team will lift the Cup this year, while 18% think a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup. 43% said that they were unsure. “When we did this survey last year, 21% thought that a Canadian team would win the Cup, so Canadians are feeling less optimistic about the Cup coming home,” continued Angolano. The Montreal Canadiens were the last Canadian NHL team to win the Stanley Cup in 1993, beating the Los Angeles Kings in five games. Pallas surveyed 1304 Canadian adults 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 5th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Oilers Seen As Having Best Chance To End Cup Drought When asked which Canadian team has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup this season, 37% said the Edmonton Oilers, 15% said the Edmonton Oilers, and 18% said the Montreal Canadiens. “Last year, 21% thought that the Oilers were Canada’s best hope of winning the Cup,” continued Angolano. “The fact that the Oilers got so close last year has led people to think they are the best hope to win the Cup.” Among frequent NHL followers, there is more confidence that the Cup will come home. 43% of respondents who said they follow the NHL very closely and watch a lot of games thought a Canadian team would win the Cup. “Many NHL pundits pick the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup this year, so it is no surprise that the Oilers are picked to win the Cup this year by Canadians who watch the NHL closely,” continued Angolano. Most Canadians Say They Don’t Follow The NHL Despite hockey being Canada’s national pastime, Most Canadians don’t follow the NHL closely. 16% said that they follow the NHL very closely, and 21% said that they follow the NHL fairly closely. 32% said that they don’t follow the NHL that closely and only watch one or two games a year, and 31% said that they don’t watch the NHL at all. “These aren’t strong numbers for the NHL if over half of the hockey’s base market of Canada say that they only watch one or two games a year, if any,” said Dr. Angolano. The Montreal Canadiens: Canada’s Favourite Hockey Team–Again The survey also found that the Montreal Canadiens are Canada’s most popular NHL team for the second straight year. 23% of those surveyed said the Habs were their favourite NHL team, followed by the Leafs with 20%. The Oilers were next with 12%, followed by the Vancouver Canucks with 9%, the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets are tied with 7%, while the Ottawa Senators have 5%. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 5th, 2024 among a sample of 1304 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of errorare higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 44%, Conservatives 43%, Greens 11%
(TORONTO, 30 AUGUST 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the governing NDP has a one-point lead over the BC Conservatives. Pallas surveyed 821 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 29, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 44% (+7% since Pallas’ last poll in May). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 43% (+5%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 11% (+2%). “The first look at the British Columbia political landscape since Kevin Falcon’s decision to join forces with the BC Conservatives did not have the intended effect of giving the Conservatives a bigger lead over the NDP, at least not immediately,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. This is the first public poll of British Columbia provincial voting intentions since BC United leader Kevin Falcon announced that he would suspend the United campaign and encouraged United supporters to join forces with the BC Conservatives. “These results mean either one of two things,” continued Angolano. “The first is that voters are still considering their options in the context of this news about BC United’s halting of its campaign.” “The other is that the bulk of right-of-centre United supporters had already left for the Conservatives before Falcon’s announcement, and those remaining supporters were sticking around under the United brand because they did not feel ideologically aligned with the Conservatives.” The net gains for the other parties in this survey (14%) are almost identical to BC United’s support (13%) in the last Pallas poll in May. “This suggests that BC United was more a coalition of centrist voters, and some of those voters will go to the NDP and Greens now that United have left the ballot,” continued Angolano. Strong Disapproval of Falcon’s Decision To End BC United CampaignMost British Columbians disapprove of Kevin Falcon’s decision to suspend BC United’s campaign to support the BC Conservatives. 41% said they disapproved of the decision, compared to 32% who said they supported the move. 23% said that they neither approved nor disapproved of the decision. “This question is divided mostly along partisan lines,” said Angolano. “While Green and NDP supporters are against Falcon’s decision, Conservative voters are strongly in favour of it.” British Columbians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong DirectionDespite the NDP leading, almost half (48%) of British Columbians say the province is headed in the wrong direction. 38% said the province is headed in the right direction. “The demographic groups that think the province is on the right track are those most likely to support the NDP: women, voters over 65, and Vancouver Island residents,” said Angolano. “The only group where the NDP lead and who said the province is headed in the wrong direction are Greater Vancouver residents.” Voters Ambivalent About Party Leaders, But Eby Performs The BestThe survey also asked respondents about their impressions of the party leaders. No party leader received a positive net score (i.e., more respondents said they had a positive impression of the leader than a negative one). Green Party leader Sonia Fursteneau and NDP leader David Eby have identical net scores (-6%). However, 32% of respondents said they had a positive impression of Eby, compared to 20% who had a positive impression of Fursteneau. John Rustad has a net score of -17%. “Eby is the best performer among the three party leaders, but that shouldn’t be taken as voters giving him ringing endorsement over his two opponents,” said Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on August 29, 2024 among a sample of 821 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 39, OLP 27, NDP 23, Green 8
(TORONTO, 11 June 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1136 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on June 4th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 39.4% (+4.9% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in February). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 26.5% (-5.1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22.6% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 8.3% (+1%). “It has been a good 2024 for Premier Ford so far”, said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PCs have a comfortable lead over the Liberals and would comfortably win a majority of an election were held today.” The Ford PCs have significant leads in every region, including the seat-rich areas of the Greater Toronto Area and Toronto proper. The Liberals, on the other hand, have an eight-point lead over the PCs and the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). “These numbers indicate that little has changed since the last election,” said Dr. Angolano. “The PCs are within the margin of error of what they got in 2022, and the Liberals and the NDP are relatively close to each other.” An Early Election The survey also asked Ontarians whether they would be more or less likely to vote PC if an early election were called. Premier Ford has repeatedly refused to rule out an early election call over the last week when reporters have asked. 31% said they would be less likely to vote PC if an election were called early. 10% said they would be more likely to vote PC, while 52% said an early election call would not impact their vote. “An early election would not impact the PC’s electoral chances,” added Dr. Angolano. “What it would mean is that those voters that have already decided that they would never vote for the PCs would use an early election call as another reason not to vote for them.” One in four PC voters said they would be more likely to vote PC if there were an early election, with only 14% saying they would be less likely to vote PC if Ontarians headed to the polls early. “The Liberals, who are in second place, would need every one of those 14% to switch their votes from the PCs to them to get to a PC minority,” said Angolano. “And that scenario of perfect voter conversion is simply not going to happen.” The PCs Will Win Because They Can Retain Their Base The survey also asked Ontarians to identify whether strategic or sincere reasons best explain their vote. “The PCs have enough voters among both hard and soft PC voters to win an election despite the voter pool is larger for the opposition parties than it is for the PCs,” said Angolano. “The bad news for the NDP and the Liberals is that the soft PC voters are fine with an early election call and the general performance of the Ford government,” Angolano continued. When asked about whether they thought the Ford government was doing a good or bad job so far in 2024, 41% of Ontarians said that they were doing a very bad job, 15% said they were doing a somewhat bad job, 12% said they were doing neither a good or bad job, 16% said they were doing a somewhat good job, while 13% said they were doing a very good job. “It seems confusing that Ontarians are giving a big ‘thumbs down’ to Ford but likely winning re-election easily,” said Angolano. “But the plain truth is that PCs are satisfied with how the PCs are doing in 2024.” “The PCs understand that they can’t and won’t be all things to all people,” concluded Angolano. “But they can focus on keeping their voters happy and onside, which is why they’re on a path to an easy re-election.”
Pallas British Columbia Poll: Conservatives 38, NDP 37, BC United 13, Green 9
(TORONTO, 16 May 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Conservative Party of British Columbia, who only have two seats in the British Columbia legislature, has a slender one-point lead over the governing NDP. Pallas surveyed 848 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on May 14, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 38% (+36% since the 2020 election), while the governing NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 37% (-11%). BC United, led by Kevin Falcon, has 13% support (-25%), while the Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 9% (-6%). “There has been a complete sea change in British Columbia politics,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Right-of-centre voters have left BC United and flooded to the BC Conservatives.” “This shift has happened because the BC Liberals changed its name to BC United,” said Dr. Angolano. “Branding matters in politics, and BC United is learning that lesson the hard way.” There is a significant gender split. The Conservatives lead by fourteen points among men but are ten points behind the NDP among women. The age breakouts also show interesting differences. Support for the Conservatives is highest among respondents between 18 and 34 and drops among older respondents, while the NDP gains support among older respondents. “Despite the Conservatives having the tiniest of leads, the NDP would still win an election if it were held today with these numbers,” continued Angolano. Testing Political Knowledge: A Branding Vacuum Created by BC United The poll also asked three questions measuring knowledge about BC’s political parties. “We wanted to test if British Columbians understand what was going on with BC United and the BC Conservatives,” said Angolano. “So we felt the best way of measuring that was to create an index of the three questions to measure political knowledge.” The respondent was given one point if they answered the question correctly. If they answered the question incorrectly, they lost a point. Zero points were awarded if they said they didn’t know the answer. If a respondent got a score of 3, it means they got all the questions correct, while a score of -3 indicates that they answered all the questions incorrectly. Most voters (61%) are net positives on the knowledge index, getting more questions right than wrong. Twenty percent got all the questions correct. “Generally, British Columbians know that the BC Liberals are no more and that BC United is the Official Opposition, and likely know what their options will be on the ballot come October,” said Angolano. “Our research shows that there is not much brand confusion regarding BC United being the new iteration of the BC Liberals,” he continued. “Instead, the name change has created a branding vacuum by BC United abandoning the small-l brand.” That said, the NDP has a lead among respondents who got a perfect score of 3, indicating that the NDP might do better during an election period where more information is shared about these political parties and knowledge increases. “BC United’s support does not increase the more knowledgeable voters are,” Angolano said. “This indicates that the hope that former BC Liberal voters would migrate to BC United once they started paying attention when the election starts is incorrect.” “If anything, the NDP will benefit from the added attention, and voters become better informed, not the Liberals.” The three questions were true/false questions with a not sure option: Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on May 14th, 2024, among a sample of 848 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 33, PLQ 23, CAQ 20, QS 13, PCQ 11
(TORONTO, 29 April 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Parti Quebecois are still in the lead in voting intentions in Quebec, while the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec has slid to third. Pallas surveyed 1256 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from April 20-21 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 33% (+1% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in January), while the opposition Liberals led by interim leader Marc Tanguay climbed to 23% (+8%). The CAQ led by Francois Legault has 20% (-1%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, has 13% (-4%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime, has 11% (-1%). “Paul St Pierre Plamondon’s speech a week ago guaranteeing a referendum by 2030 if the PQ were elected certainly has woken up Quebec’s non-francophone vote,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “That demographic has come flying back to the Quebec Liberals, who have traditionally been the defender of minority rights and hard federalism in Quebec.” “Future polling will determine whether this Liberal rise is ephemeral or permanent,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But if all it takes for the Liberals to climb back up in the polls is a hard sovereignty speech by Plamondon, and given that the Liberals do not have a permanent leader, I would hazard to guess that this Liberal bump will be gone sooner rather than later.” The Liberals’ rise is due entirely to their increased support among Quebec non-francophones. In this survey, 67% of non-francophones said they would vote for the Liberals, an increase from 48% in January. This increased support translates into better showings for the Liberals regionally, most notably in Montreal. The Liberals are tied two points ahead of the Parti Quebecois in the Montreal area, five points ahead of the PQ in the suburbs, and fifteen points ahead of the Pequistes on the Island. In the Quebec City area and the regions, the PQ has strong leads over the Quebec Conservatives and the CAQ respectively. “While the Liberals are up, the Parti Quebecois would still win a majority if an election were held today,” said Angolano. Pushing the Sovereignty Button Hard Would Hurt the PQ The survey also found that 39% would vote for Quebec sovereignty today, compared to 50% who said they would vote against it. Although support for sovereignty is robust, Quebec said they were less likely to vote for the PQ if they promised to hold a referendum after the election should they win. While 43% said pushing for a referendum would not affect their likelihood of voting for the PQ in the election, 38% said they were less likely to vote PQ if they promised to hold a referendum in the next election. 13% said that they were more likely to vote for the Parti Quebecois. The survey also asked if they wanted to hold a referendum on sovereignty by 2030, as Plamondon promised. 54% said they did not want a referendum by then, with 37% saying they would want one. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted from April 20th to 21st, 2024, among a sample of 1256 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.