Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 42, LPC 25, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Green 4
(TORONTO, 7 January 2025) – The federal Conservatives maintain a substantial lead over the governing Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On October 5th, Pallas surveyed 1328 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 42% support, while the Liberals, who now find themselves without a leader with Justin Trudeau announcing yesterday he will resign, have 25%. The NDP has 18%, while the Greens have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois has 9%, with 37% in Quebec. “There is life for the Liberals as they enter their post-Trudeau phase,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Things were looking bad for the Liberals at the end of 2024 with them facing the prospects of being reduced to 15 to 20 seats.” “Now, with Justin Trudeau saying that he will resign, the gap between the Liberals has narrowed a bit, and while the Conservatives would still win a majority with these numbers, I would expect the Liberals to form the Official Opposition if an election were held today.” The Conservatives maintain significant leads in every region in the country except Quebec, where they are ten points behind the Bloc Quebecois. However, the Liberals have closed in on the Conservatives in British Columbia. “The internal goal that the Liberals set back in April of closing the gap between the Conservatives by five points has been accomplished: it only took Justin Trudeau resigning to get it done,” continued Dr. Angolano. “One has to wonder why he didn’t go sooner, seeing how much Liberal fortunes have improved.” Canadians Approve Of Trudeau Resigning The survey also found that most Canadians are satisfied with Trudeau’s resignation. Just over four out of ten Canadians agree with the Liberal’s chances of winning the next election, with 19% strongly agreeing that the Liberals will do better in the next election. By comparison, only a total of 27% don’t think the Liberals will do better in the next election. Almost 60% said they were satisfied with Trudeau’s resignation, with 40% saying they were very satisfied. “Canadians likely are not going to agree about Justin Trudeau’s legacy,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But they agree that the Trudeau era had run its course, for better or worse.” When asked about the Liberal’s chances in the next election without Trudeau as their leader, just over four out of ten Canadians agree with the Liberal’s chances of winning the next election, with 19% strongly agreeing that the Liberals will do better in the next election. However, almost one in two Canadians said that yesterday’s news would not affect their vote. 23% said that they are less likely to vote Liberal now. 48% said their vote would not be affected, and 20% said they were more likely to vote Liberal. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on January 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1328 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Majority of Quebecers Want Legault To Resign Before Next Election
(TORONTO, December 1 2024) – 53% of Quebecers think that Premier Francois Legault should resign before the next election and not seek a third term. Pallas surveyed 1093 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on November 26, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. When asked whether Legault should resign or seek a third term, 53% of respondents said he should resign as leader of the Coalition Avenir de Quebec, while 33% said he should run for a third term in 2026. 15% said that they were unsure. “It is remarkable to see how much Legault’s fortunes have fallen in a year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Most Quebecers think it is time for a leadership change, and now the CAQ are faced with one of two options – leave things as is and hope for the opposition parties to make a mistake, or try to deliver significant change, even if it means changing leaders.” The survey also found high dissatisfaction with Legault’s work as Premier. A total of 20% expressed some satisfaction with Legault (5% said they were very satisfied, with 15% saying they were somewhat satisfied). By comparison, 39% said they were very unsatisfied with Legault’s work as Premier, and 24% said they were somewhat dissatisfied. “The numbers have some parallels with Justin Trudeau’s favourabilities six months ago and should give the CAQ some pause,’ continued Angolano. “I think the CAQ find themselves at a crossroads, and while they made not need to change leaders to improve their fortunes necessarily, they need to do things differently and change course if they want to be competitive in the next election.” This satisfaction has had an effect on voting intention, as only one in five Quebecers say that they would vote for the CAQ if an election were held today. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 35% (+1% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in October), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 20% (-2%). The Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, have 18% (no change). The Conservative Party of Quebec led by Eric Duhaime has 13% (-1%), while Quebec Solidaire with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois at the helm has 12% (no change). “The CAQ is in danger of being wiped off the electoral map with numbers like these,” continued Angolano. “The PQ leads in every region of Quebec, and with the Liberals maintaining their stronghold in the western part of the Island and the Conservatives building a bit of an electoral beachhead in the Quebec City area, it could spell big trouble for the CAQ in the next election.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on September 26th, 2024, among a sample of 1111 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 41, OLP 28, NDP 22, Green 7
(TORONTO, 23 October 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 996 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 15th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 41% (+2% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in June). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 7% (-1%). “The Ford government is still in cruise control,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. ” If an election were held today, a PC majority with the Liberals in opposition would be the likeliest scenario.” The PCs have significant leads in every region of the province, most notably the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. Toronto is a little more competitive, where the Liberals are three points behind the PCs, with the NDP in third place at 24%. The Proposed 401 Tunnelled Express Way: A Possible Banana Peel For Ford? The survey asked respondents whether they would support building a tunnelled expressway under the 401. Premier Ford has said that a feasibility study will examine the possibility of building a tunnel underneath Canada’s busiest highway to add more lanes and relieve congestion. A total of 63% said that they opposed the building of the tunnel (52% said that they were strongly opposed), while 18% said that they were in favour of it. Opposition is based chiefly among supporters of the opposition parties. Still, there is also significant opposition from PC voters (a total of 40% of PC voters said they were opposed, while 34% said they supported the idea). A total of 28% said they were more likely to support building a tunnel underneath the 401 if it included a transit line, including 36% of respondents in Toronto, and 32% of respondents living in the Greater Toronto Area. More worryingly for the PCs, 39% of respondents said they would certainly vote against a party that promises to build the 401 tunnel, with 16% of PC voters saying that they would do so. “This should give the Ford government some pause and think about their messaging on the tunnel to Ontarians,” said Angolano. “It is highly unlikely that every PC voter who said they would not vote for a party that would build a tunnel would go out and vote for another party in the next election.” “But there are concerns with the proposed project. Commuters and Toronto drivers see all the congestion due to construction and are likely worried they might see something similar happen with the 401.” Little Concern About an Early Election The survey also asked respondents about their thoughts on the possibility of an early election, as there is speculation that one could be held in the Spring of 2025. 29% said they don’t want an early election, while 20% said they favour one. 31% said that they would be in favour of an early election if there were a good reason to have one, while 19% said that they didn’t care when the election was called. “Usually, when we ask questions about an early election, respondents tend to disapprove of an early election strongly,” said Angolano. “The fact that there isn’t much opposition to an early election means that Premier Ford can call one without fear of public backlash.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 15th, 2024 among a sample of 996 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Data: Most Accurate Polling Firm of 2024 British Columbia Election
(TORONTO, 20 OCTOBER 2024)— Pallas Data is the most accurate polling firm for the 2024 British Columbia provincial election. Pallas’ final poll only had 3% total error from the preliminary election results. This was the lowest total error of the ten polling firms that released estimates of British Columbians’ voting intentions ahead of the October 19th vote. “This is a great achievement for Pallas Data, as we got the closest to the actual results in the first election in which we tried to test our firm’s accuracy,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Pallas Data was founded in 2023 in Toronto, ON. We frequently poll federally and provincially, and our polls have been featured in CBC, Radio-Canada, La Presse, Le Devoir, L’actualité, The Trillium, Politico, iPolitics, the National Post, and CTV News. While Pallas Data did end up taking first place, it is worth noting that nearly every polling firm provided close estimates of British Columbians’ intentions. “Often we talk about what goes wrong in the world, but we should also talk about when things go right,” continued Dr. Angolano. “While Pallas Data was the most accurate polling firm in this election, I should note that British Columbia and Canada as a whole are served very well by the Canadian polling industry that works very hard to measure Canadian public opinion accurately.”
Pallas Final British Columbia Election Poll: NDP 45%, Conservatives 42%, Greens 9%
(TORONTO, 18 OCTOBER 2024)—The final Pallas Data poll before tomorrow’s election found that the governing NDP has a three-point lead over the BC Conservatives. The NDP will likely be re-elected in tomorrow’s election. Pallas surveyed 712 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 17-18, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 45% (+1% since Pallas’ last pol). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 42% (-1%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 9% (-2%). “David Eby looks to have done enough to secure a win for the BC NDP, with a majority the likeliest scenario,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “However, the NDP needs a stronger get-out-the-vote operation than the Conservatives to win a majority tomorrow.” The NDP has an eleven-point lead over the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver, while the Conservatives lead by ten in the interior. Vancouver Island looks like a three-way fight, with the NDP leading by four points over the Conservatives and the Greens in third with 20%. “The campaign has had its twists and turns, including the former opposition party completely shutting down its operations to endorse the Conservatives, but it looks like David Eby’s team will win tomorrow.” The NDP will bring a slender lead into election day amidst ambivalence among British Columbians about the province’s direction. Almost half (46%) of respondents said the province is headed in the wrong direction. 39% said the province was headed in the right direction, while 15% said they were unsure. “Whoever wins tomorrow’s election will govern a divided province not only by region – which is nothing new to British Columbia politics – but also a significant generational divide,” said Angolano. “Older British Columbians are happy with the status quo, but younger voters are not, and they are flocking to the BC Conservatives.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from October 16th-17th, 2024 among a sample of 712 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 42%, Conservatives 41%, Greens 14%
(TORONTO, 13 OCTOBER 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the governing NDP maintains a one-point lead over the BC Conservatives, showing no movement since Pallas last polled in August. Pallas surveyed 699 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 12th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 42% (-2% since Pallas’ last poll in August). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 41% (-2%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 14% (+3%). “This campaign feels like a long tactical boxing match of two heavyweights unable to land a knockout blow in the early or middle rounds,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “British Columbians still seem reluctant to give either the NDP or the BC Conservatives the lead with less than a week to go.” “Things can change in the final week, of course, and I’m certain that the provincial election will be a topic of conversation at the dinner table this Thanksgiving,” continued Angolano. British Columbians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong Direction – StillA further sign of stasis among the electoral is there has been no change in British Columbians’ thinking about whether the province is headed in the wrong direction or not. Almost identical to Pallas’ polling last August, almost half (48%) of British Columbians say the province is headed in the wrong direction. 38% said the province is headed in the right direction. “The voting intention numbers and the question about the direction of the province seem to show that there are two British Columbias,” added Angolano. “One is young, very dissatisfied with the status quo, and more likely to vote for John Rustad and the BC Conservatives. The other British Columbia is older and thinks the province is on the right track, and they are supporting David Eby.” Fursteneau Scores Best Among Party LeadersThe survey also asked respondents about their impressions of the party leaders. Green Party Sonia Fursteneau was the only party leader with a positive net score of +8% (i.e., more respondents said they had a positive impression of the leader than a negative one). Both David Eby and John Rustad had negative net scores. David Eby has a net score of -8%, and John Rustad has a score of -26%. 53% of respondents say they have a negative impression of him, and 42% say they have a negative impression of Eby. “Fursteneau’s favorability ratings have improved undoubtedly because of her strong performance in the leaders’ debate,” said Angolano. “And David Eby can take some solace in the fact that while his favorability ratings are not good, they are better than John Rustad’s.” “This might give a slight edge to the NDP as people make up their minds in the last week of the campaign,” Angolano concluded. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on October 12th, 2024, among a sample of 699 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 44, LPC 22, NDP 19, Green 4
(TORONTO, October 10th 2024) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre lead the governing Liberals by twenty-two points, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On October 5th, Pallas surveyed 1304 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 44% support, while the Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, have 22%. With Jagmeet Singh at the helm, the NDP has 19%, while the Greens, led by Elizabeth May, have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 8%, but 35% in Quebec. “Conservative domination continues,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “As Liberals dip in support, and the Bloc is doing better in Quebec, the more interesting race in the next election might be which party forms the Official Opposition.” The Conservatives have large leads in every region in the country except Quebec, where they are nine points behind the Bloc Quebecois. “Canadians’ federal vote intentions are rather set,” continued Dr. Angolano. “There isn’t much a federal politician can do or say at this point to change voters’ minds. The only thing that might get voters to reconsider their options is a federal election where most Canadians pay attention.” There is a significant gender gap. The Conservatives have a thirty-point lead among men over the Liberals (52% to 22%) but find themselves tied with the Liberals at 31% among women. Canadians Don’t Feel Good About The Economy, But More Bullish About Their Finances The survey also found that a substantial majority of Canadians think the Canadian economy is getting worse. A total of 62% of Canadians believed that the economy was getting worse, with 43% saying that it was getting worse. Only 22% said that the economy is getting better. There is a significant generational gap, with anxiety about the Canadian economy much lower among Canadians older than 65. Moreover, this is a noticeable divide along partisan lines, as Conservative and Bloc voters are far more likely to say that the economy is getting worse, compared to Liberal and NDP voters who are more positive about the economy. That said, Canadians are much more optimistic about the personal finances. 18% said they were very optimistic about their personal finances, with 24% saying they were somewhat optimistic (a total of 42%). In contrast, 15% said they were somewhat pessimistic about their personal finances, and 14% said they were strongly pessimistic (a total of 29%). “This is an interesting paradox we find here,” Angolano concluded. “Even though Canadians are starting to feel better about their finances—no doubt the lower interest rates have helped with that, but that optimism has not spilled over their outlook on the Canadian economy as a whole.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on October 5th, 2024, among a sample of 1304 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 34, CAQ 22, PLQ 18, PCQ 14, QS 12
(TORONTO, 10 October 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the Parti Quebecois maintain their twelve-point lead over the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec. Pallas surveyed 1111 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on September 26, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 34% (+1% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in June), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 22% (+1%). The Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, have 18% (+1%). The Conservative Party of Quebec led by Eric Duhaime has 14% (+3%), while Quebec Solidaire with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois at the helm has 12% (-4%). “The Parti Quebecois remain in cruise control in voter intention,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “While the Quebec Conservatives have improved and the QS have dropped off, little has changed .” Even when we look at the regions, little has changed as the PQ leads in every region. Their lead over the CAQ and the Liberals has increased to 21 points in the Montreal suburbs. The PQ leads over the CAQ in the regions and in the Quebec City metropolitan region has narrowed, likely due to the Conservative increase in support in both areas. Plamondon Still The Most Favoured Party LeaderThe survey also asked Quebecers whether they had a positive or negative impression of the four major party leaders, repeating questions in our April survey. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains the only leader with a net positive impression among Quebecers, increasing his net favourability score to +16% (+8% from April). Eric Duhaime’s rating went up by a point to -48%, while Nadeau-Dubois’s rating fell to -20% (-8%), and Legault’s rating dropped to -45% (-9%). Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on September 26th, 2024, among a sample of 1111 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
For Second Straight Year, Low Confidence That a Canadian Team Will Win The Stanley Cup This Year: Pallas Data Poll
(TORONTO, 9 October 2024) – Most Canadians do not think a Canadian team will win this year despite the Edmonton Oilers getting so close to winning the Stanley Cup last year, a new Pallas Data survey has found. “One would think that Canadians would be a little more positive about a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup this year given that the Oilers were one game away from winning it all last year, but that’s not the case,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. 38% of respondents do not think a Canadian team will lift the Cup this year, while 18% think a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup. 43% said that they were unsure. “When we did this survey last year, 21% thought that a Canadian team would win the Cup, so Canadians are feeling less optimistic about the Cup coming home,” continued Angolano. The Montreal Canadiens were the last Canadian NHL team to win the Stanley Cup in 1993, beating the Los Angeles Kings in five games. Pallas surveyed 1304 Canadian adults 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 5th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Oilers Seen As Having Best Chance To End Cup Drought When asked which Canadian team has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup this season, 37% said the Edmonton Oilers, 15% said the Edmonton Oilers, and 18% said the Montreal Canadiens. “Last year, 21% thought that the Oilers were Canada’s best hope of winning the Cup,” continued Angolano. “The fact that the Oilers got so close last year has led people to think they are the best hope to win the Cup.” Among frequent NHL followers, there is more confidence that the Cup will come home. 43% of respondents who said they follow the NHL very closely and watch a lot of games thought a Canadian team would win the Cup. “Many NHL pundits pick the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup this year, so it is no surprise that the Oilers are picked to win the Cup this year by Canadians who watch the NHL closely,” continued Angolano. Most Canadians Say They Don’t Follow The NHL Despite hockey being Canada’s national pastime, Most Canadians don’t follow the NHL closely. 16% said that they follow the NHL very closely, and 21% said that they follow the NHL fairly closely. 32% said that they don’t follow the NHL that closely and only watch one or two games a year, and 31% said that they don’t watch the NHL at all. “These aren’t strong numbers for the NHL if over half of the hockey’s base market of Canada say that they only watch one or two games a year, if any,” said Dr. Angolano. The Montreal Canadiens: Canada’s Favourite Hockey Team–Again The survey also found that the Montreal Canadiens are Canada’s most popular NHL team for the second straight year. 23% of those surveyed said the Habs were their favourite NHL team, followed by the Leafs with 20%. The Oilers were next with 12%, followed by the Vancouver Canucks with 9%, the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets are tied with 7%, while the Ottawa Senators have 5%. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 5th, 2024 among a sample of 1304 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of errorare higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 44%, Conservatives 43%, Greens 11%
(TORONTO, 30 AUGUST 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the governing NDP has a one-point lead over the BC Conservatives. Pallas surveyed 821 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 29, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 44% (+7% since Pallas’ last poll in May). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 43% (+5%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 11% (+2%). “The first look at the British Columbia political landscape since Kevin Falcon’s decision to join forces with the BC Conservatives did not have the intended effect of giving the Conservatives a bigger lead over the NDP, at least not immediately,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. This is the first public poll of British Columbia provincial voting intentions since BC United leader Kevin Falcon announced that he would suspend the United campaign and encouraged United supporters to join forces with the BC Conservatives. “These results mean either one of two things,” continued Angolano. “The first is that voters are still considering their options in the context of this news about BC United’s halting of its campaign.” “The other is that the bulk of right-of-centre United supporters had already left for the Conservatives before Falcon’s announcement, and those remaining supporters were sticking around under the United brand because they did not feel ideologically aligned with the Conservatives.” The net gains for the other parties in this survey (14%) are almost identical to BC United’s support (13%) in the last Pallas poll in May. “This suggests that BC United was more a coalition of centrist voters, and some of those voters will go to the NDP and Greens now that United have left the ballot,” continued Angolano. Strong Disapproval of Falcon’s Decision To End BC United CampaignMost British Columbians disapprove of Kevin Falcon’s decision to suspend BC United’s campaign to support the BC Conservatives. 41% said they disapproved of the decision, compared to 32% who said they supported the move. 23% said that they neither approved nor disapproved of the decision. “This question is divided mostly along partisan lines,” said Angolano. “While Green and NDP supporters are against Falcon’s decision, Conservative voters are strongly in favour of it.” British Columbians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong DirectionDespite the NDP leading, almost half (48%) of British Columbians say the province is headed in the wrong direction. 38% said the province is headed in the right direction. “The demographic groups that think the province is on the right track are those most likely to support the NDP: women, voters over 65, and Vancouver Island residents,” said Angolano. “The only group where the NDP lead and who said the province is headed in the wrong direction are Greater Vancouver residents.” Voters Ambivalent About Party Leaders, But Eby Performs The BestThe survey also asked respondents about their impressions of the party leaders. No party leader received a positive net score (i.e., more respondents said they had a positive impression of the leader than a negative one). Green Party leader Sonia Fursteneau and NDP leader David Eby have identical net scores (-6%). However, 32% of respondents said they had a positive impression of Eby, compared to 20% who had a positive impression of Fursteneau. John Rustad has a net score of -17%. “Eby is the best performer among the three party leaders, but that shouldn’t be taken as voters giving him ringing endorsement over his two opponents,” said Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on August 29, 2024 among a sample of 821 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.