Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 44, OLP 28, NDP 20, Green 5
(TORONTO, 20 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives maintain a sixteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 953 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 18th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 44% (no change since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 20% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change). “Everything is completely static in this Ontario election and the campaign has done very little to create any sort of dynamic in this election,’ said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Progressive Conservatives are in cruise control to winning their third straight majority next week.” “The one point of interest is who will form the Official Opposition: the Liberals or the NDP.” The PCs maintain their strong leads in every region in Ontario. Their lead over the Liberals in Toronto is eight points, and their lead in the Greater Toronto Area is twelve. In South Central Ontario, the PCs lead the NDP by eight points. More Ontarians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong Direction 57% of Ontarians think the province is headed in the wrong direction. 23% think Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 20% said they were unsure. “The number of Ontarians who said that the province is going in the wrong direction has been up four percent since the beginning of the election,” said Angolano. “So while support remains steady for the PCs, dissatisfaction for how the province is doing is up slightly.” Ford Seen As The Debate Winner25% of respondents said that PC leader Doug Ford won the leaders’ debate, while 19% said that Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie won. 8% said NDP leader Marit Stiles won, with 4% saying Green leader Mike Schreiner won. 13% said no leader won the debate, and 30% said they didn’t know. Among those who said that they watched the entire debate, 37% said that Ford won compared to 22% who felt Crombie won. 16% of those who said they watched the debate in full said Stiles won. “This finding points to an advantage for the PCs that we might see play out on election day,” observed Angolano. “Watching the leaders’ debate is a sign of civic engagement and willingness to participate in the democratic process. These people are likelier to vote on election day than the rest of the population.’ “If more people in this group think that Ford won the debate compared to the rest of the population, then this is a big advantage for the PCs next week.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 18th, 2025 among a sample of 953 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 49, Conservative 41, Green 8
(TORONTO, 18 February 2025) – As the new British Columbia legislative session gets underway tomorrow with a new Speech from the Throne, a new Pallas Data poll finds that the NDP led by Premier David Eby has an eight-point lead over the opposition Conservatives. Among decided and leaning voters, The NDP has 49% (+4% since the general election), while the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 41% (-2%). With interim leader Jeremy Valeriote at the helm, the Greens are at 8% (no change). “Premier Eby and the NDP have been in a strong position since the election, as the legislative session begins tomorrow,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “British Columbians are mostly on board with Eby’s response to the U.S. tariffs and trust him the most on handling the trade issue.” The NDP has a twenty-two-point lead over the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver and is five points ahead on Vancouver Island. British Columbians Are Very Concerned About the U.S. Tariffs The survey also asked respondents if they agreed that the U.S. tariffs posed a massive threat to the British Columbia economy and could put the province into a recession. The number of respondents who are concerned about the economic impacts of the tariffs outnumbers those who are not concerned by a factor of two to one. 36% strongly agreed, with another 24% saying they somewhat agree (60% in total agree at some level). By comparison, 16% strongly disagreed, and 13% somewhat disagreed (a total of 29%). British Columbians Prefer Eby’s Approach To Tariffs Respondents were asked which response to the tariffs they preferred: either having British Columbia fully cooperate with the Trump administration and address their concerns about drugs and border security or having the province respond with retaliatory tariffs and removing American liquor from store shelves. BC Conservative leader John Rustad has suggested the first option, while David Eby said the province would do the second the day the tariffs were announced. The question only had respondents listen to each option and did not attribute either option to Eby or Rustad. 55% said that British Columbia should respond with retaliatory tariffs and remove American liquor from store shelves—and 30% preferred cooperation with the Trump administration. British Columbians are split on this along partisan lines. 76% of NDP voters favoured retaliatory tariffs, while only 20% of Conservative voters thought retaliatory tariffs were best. Conversely, 65% of Conservatives opted for full cooperation with the United States, while only 7% thought working with the Trump administration was best. Eby Most Trusted To Respond To Tariffs Finally, 43% of respondents said they most trust David Eby to respond to the U.S. tariffs. 34% said they trusted John Rustad the most, with 3% saying they trusted Jeremy Valeriote. 15% said that they were not sure. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 15th, 2025 among a sample of 677 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 44, OLP 28, NDP 19, Green 5
(TORONTO, 16 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives have a sixteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 11th-12th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 2.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 44% (-1% since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 19% (-2%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change). “The opposition parties are failing to land any blows on Ford PCs during this campaign,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “With that said, the NDP is starting to drop off compared to the Liberals.” “But nothing has changed in this election, and the PCs are coasting to another majority win.” The PCs have significant leads in every region in Ontario. They have a ten-point lead over the Liberals in Toronto and an eleven-point lead in the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. They find themselves ahead by sixteen points of the Liberals in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). Health Care, Housing and Cost of Living Top Issues for OntariansJust over three out of ten Ontarians (31%) cited health care as the issue that would motivate their vote in the next election, with 27% saying that housing and the cost of living were their most important issues. Despite the tremendous attention from the media and the PC campaign, only 11% said that tariffs and trade were the most important issues to them. “47% of respondents who said that they would vote Liberal in the next election said that health care was their top issue, so this would explain why Bonnie Crombie has focused heavily on the lack of family doctors in her campaign,” continued Angolano. Most Ontarians “Identify” As Car Drivers Transportation has become very politicized in Ontario, from the days when Mayor Rob Ford promised subways in Toronto and received heavy backlash from progressive city councillors to the debates about building more bike lanes and Premier Doug Ford promising to rip them up. “It’s almost as if the mode of transportation is no longer seen as a method by which we get from Point A to Point B but almost tied to our identity and core political beliefs, so this is something that we wanted to measure,” said Angolano. Just over seven out of ten Ontarians said they think of themselves first as car drivers, with 13% saying they identify as transit users. In Toronto, however, the number of people who say they are primarily transit users first almost doubled to 27%. “If anyone wanted to know why Doug Ford is spending so much time talking about building the tunnel underneath the 401 and beginning construction of Highway 413, it’s because he is catering to his base,” said Angolano. “81% of PC voters said that they consider themselves drivers first: higher than any other group in the province.” The Best Way To Build More Housing? Lower Development Charges Respondents were also asked what they thought should be the province’s top priority regarding housing. 27% said that the province should focus on lowering development charges, 23% said that the province should subsidize the building of more affordable housing, and 15% said that the provinces should allow for more fourplexes and secondary suites in municipalities. Development charges are fees collected from developers when building permits are issued to help pay for the cost of infrastructure required to provide municipal services to new developments, such as roads, transit, water and sewer infrastructure, community centres, and fire and police facilities. These charges have increased significantly over the last twenty years and by various rates across Ontario municipalities. For example, the development charge for building a single-detached home in Toronto increased by 1250% from 2009 to 2025. “Many experts have cited the dramatic increase of development charges over the years as creating a significant bottleneck in building more houses in Ontario,” said Angolano. “Nearly four in ten PC voters say that development charges should be reduced, which means that if Doug Ford secures another majority in a couple of weeks, he will have political capital amongst his base to fight municipalities in lowering development charges.” In November 2024, Vaughan Mayor Steven Del Duca announced that he would reduce development charges in the City. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 11th-12th, 2025 among a sample of 2193 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age,gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: Canadians Do Not Approve Of Trump
(TORONTO, 9 February 2025) – The tariffs on Canadian products that U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed on tariffs have caused Canadians to think that our relations with the United States have gotten significantly worse over a month, the second part of a Pallas Data poll has found. On February 6th, Pallas surveyed 1241 Canadian adults 18 or older who were eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. 52% of Canadians say Canada’s relations with the United States are very poor. This is an increase of threefold from January when 17% of Canadians said they were very poor. “Trump’s tariffs have caused a sharp and emotional reaction among Canadians, causing us to rethink our entire relationship with the United States,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Canadians are used to seeing the United States as a friend and ally of Canada, but that view has now been exploded by Donald Trump and his anti-Canada rhetoric.” Strong Approval for Tariff RetaliationThe survey also found that Canadians strongly support the government’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs against the United States. 52% of respondents approve of Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs, with 43% saying they strongly approve. 36% said that they either strongly or somewhat disapproved. Only 4% said that they were not sure. “Canadians see the Trump tariffs as an honest and direct threat to the Canadian economy, and it is not surprising whatsoever that Canadians approve of the government’s response,” added Dr. Angolano. “Incumbents traditionally see their support climb in the middle of a crisis, and Canadians very clearly understand the tariffs as a crisis,” continued Angolano. “Therefore, the uptick in Liberal support is no surprise.” Strong Disapproval of Donald Trump The survey also found that Canadians overwhelmingly have a negative impression of Donald Trump. 62% of Canadians have a very unfavourable impression of Trump, with another 7% saying that they have a somewhat unfavourable impression. By contrast, 19% said they had a favourable impression of the U.S. President (10% said they had a very favourable impression of him; 9% said they had a somewhat favourable impression). “Donald Trump was never a very popular figure in Canada, but not even Prime Ministers or provincial premiers at the lowest point in their popularity had favourability numbers this poor,” said Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1241 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC Still Lead, But A Carney-led LPC Would Win
(TORONTO, 9 February 2025) – While the federal Conservatives maintain a substantial but narrowing lead over the governing Liberals, the Liberals led by former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney would win an election if held today. Those are the findings of a new Pallas Data conducted on Thursday. On February 6th, Pallas surveyed 1241 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 40% support (-2% from Pallas’ last poll in January) , while the Liberals have 34% (+9%). The NDP has 12% (-6%), while the Greens have 2% (-2%). The Bloc Quebecois has 7% _-2%), with 31% in Quebec. “The Liberal resurgence is certainly because Donald Trump threatened Canada with tariffs, and the Trudeau government responded in kind,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Incumbents’ polling numbers improve in a crisis, and recent events are no different.” Despite the uptick in Liberal support, the Conservatives would win a majority with these numbers – albeit smaller than in January. Regionally, the Conservatives and the Liberals are tied in the Atlantic. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Quebecois by six points, but the Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario by four. The Conservatives have substantial leads in Alberta and the Prairies, while they have a narrower eight-point lead over the Liberals in British Columbia. Mark Carney Would Lead the Liberals To Victory If the Election Were Held Today The survey asked tested various ballot scenarios with three Liberal leadership candidates; Mark Carney, former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, and former Government House Leader Karina Gould. The results are the following (decided and leaning voters);With Carney as leader: LPC 39%, CPC 38%, NDP 9%, Bloc 7%, Green 2%, PPC 3%.With Freeland as leader: LPC 31%, CPC 41%, NDP 13%, Bloc 8%, Green 2%, PPC 3%.With Gould as leader: LPC 22%, CPC 42%, NDP 17%, Bloc 10%, Green 4%, PPC 3%. “These findings tell us that Carney is the only leader to add any sort of support to the Liberal Party, perhaps enough to power them to victory,” continued Angolano. “This doesn’t mean Carney would be guaranteed a win should they pick Carney as a leader,” continued Angolano. “What it does show us is that the voters are the most receptive to Carney as Liberal leader and his economic credentials, as Canada may face significant economic challenges from U.S. tariffs in the future.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1241 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of errorare higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5
(TORONTO, 5 February 2025) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 1st-2nd, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 45% (+4% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in October). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 21% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (-2%). “Doug Ford said he needed to call this election to get a larger mandate, and so far, it looks like his gambit is paying off,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PCs would win a more significant majority if the election were held today. The PCs have significant leads over the Liberals and NDP in every region in the province. They lead the Liberals by 11% in Toronto, 13% in the Greater Toronto Area, and by 9% over the NDP in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). “The PCs are strong enough in every region to the point that they head off the Liberals and the NDP to make gains,” continued Angolano. “The PCs would stand to gain seats from the NDP in the Hamilton-Niagara corridor if these numbers hold up.” Despite the Negatives, Ford’s Vote Is Still Holding Up Behind the voting intention numbers, the poll does show some negatives for Ford and the PCs. Over half (53%) of Ontarians think the province is heading in the wrong direction, with only 27% believing it is headed in the right direction. Moreover, when asked what Ontarians were the real reason why the election was called early, 60% said that Ford was calling the election early out of political self-interest, with 27% saying that he called the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. PC voters think the opposite of the generation population in both cases. Among this group of Ontarians, 53% believe the province is headed in the right direction, and 57% said Ford was calling the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. “The PCs have mastered the art of voter base satisfaction,” continued Dr. Angolano. “While they are happy to bring new voters into the fold, the Ford PCs know that the key to re-election is to keep 2022 PC voters in the tent.” Ontarians Are Very Concerned About the U.S. Tariffs Ontarians are very worried about the tariffs. 43% are extremely worried about the potential tariffs, with 28% saying they are somewhat worried. 18% said they were a little worried, and 8% were not worried. With that said, Ford is overwhelmingly the most trusted leader in representing Ontario’s interests regarding tariffs and trade. 50% of respondents said Ford was the best option, followed by Bonnie Crombie with 24%. 19% picked Marit Stiles, and 8% said Mike Schreiner. “So long as Ontarians remain concerned about the tariffs and Ontario’s trade relationship with the United States, Ford will have a distinct advantage in this election,” concluded Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 1st-2nd, 2005 among a sample of 1014 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC 42, LPC 25, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Green 4
(TORONTO, 7 January 2025) – The federal Conservatives maintain a substantial lead over the governing Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On October 5th, Pallas surveyed 1328 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 42% support, while the Liberals, who now find themselves without a leader with Justin Trudeau announcing yesterday he will resign, have 25%. The NDP has 18%, while the Greens have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois has 9%, with 37% in Quebec. “There is life for the Liberals as they enter their post-Trudeau phase,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Things were looking bad for the Liberals at the end of 2024 with them facing the prospects of being reduced to 15 to 20 seats.” “Now, with Justin Trudeau saying that he will resign, the gap between the Liberals has narrowed a bit, and while the Conservatives would still win a majority with these numbers, I would expect the Liberals to form the Official Opposition if an election were held today.” The Conservatives maintain significant leads in every region in the country except Quebec, where they are ten points behind the Bloc Quebecois. However, the Liberals have closed in on the Conservatives in British Columbia. “The internal goal that the Liberals set back in April of closing the gap between the Conservatives by five points has been accomplished: it only took Justin Trudeau resigning to get it done,” continued Dr. Angolano. “One has to wonder why he didn’t go sooner, seeing how much Liberal fortunes have improved.” Canadians Approve Of Trudeau Resigning The survey also found that most Canadians are satisfied with Trudeau’s resignation. Just over four out of ten Canadians agree with the Liberal’s chances of winning the next election, with 19% strongly agreeing that the Liberals will do better in the next election. By comparison, only a total of 27% don’t think the Liberals will do better in the next election. Almost 60% said they were satisfied with Trudeau’s resignation, with 40% saying they were very satisfied. “Canadians likely are not going to agree about Justin Trudeau’s legacy,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But they agree that the Trudeau era had run its course, for better or worse.” When asked about the Liberal’s chances in the next election without Trudeau as their leader, just over four out of ten Canadians agree with the Liberal’s chances of winning the next election, with 19% strongly agreeing that the Liberals will do better in the next election. However, almost one in two Canadians said that yesterday’s news would not affect their vote. 23% said that they are less likely to vote Liberal now. 48% said their vote would not be affected, and 20% said they were more likely to vote Liberal. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on January 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1328 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Majority of Quebecers Want Legault To Resign Before Next Election
(TORONTO, December 1 2024) – 53% of Quebecers think that Premier Francois Legault should resign before the next election and not seek a third term. Pallas surveyed 1093 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on November 26, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. When asked whether Legault should resign or seek a third term, 53% of respondents said he should resign as leader of the Coalition Avenir de Quebec, while 33% said he should run for a third term in 2026. 15% said that they were unsure. “It is remarkable to see how much Legault’s fortunes have fallen in a year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Most Quebecers think it is time for a leadership change, and now the CAQ are faced with one of two options – leave things as is and hope for the opposition parties to make a mistake, or try to deliver significant change, even if it means changing leaders.” The survey also found high dissatisfaction with Legault’s work as Premier. A total of 20% expressed some satisfaction with Legault (5% said they were very satisfied, with 15% saying they were somewhat satisfied). By comparison, 39% said they were very unsatisfied with Legault’s work as Premier, and 24% said they were somewhat dissatisfied. “The numbers have some parallels with Justin Trudeau’s favourabilities six months ago and should give the CAQ some pause,’ continued Angolano. “I think the CAQ find themselves at a crossroads, and while they made not need to change leaders to improve their fortunes necessarily, they need to do things differently and change course if they want to be competitive in the next election.” This satisfaction has had an effect on voting intention, as only one in five Quebecers say that they would vote for the CAQ if an election were held today. Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 35% (+1% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in October), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 20% (-2%). The Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, have 18% (no change). The Conservative Party of Quebec led by Eric Duhaime has 13% (-1%), while Quebec Solidaire with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois at the helm has 12% (no change). “The CAQ is in danger of being wiped off the electoral map with numbers like these,” continued Angolano. “The PQ leads in every region of Quebec, and with the Liberals maintaining their stronghold in the western part of the Island and the Conservatives building a bit of an electoral beachhead in the Quebec City area, it could spell big trouble for the CAQ in the next election.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on September 26th, 2024, among a sample of 1111 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 41, OLP 28, NDP 22, Green 7
(TORONTO, 23 October 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a twelve-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 996 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 15th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 41% (+2% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in June). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 22% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 7% (-1%). “The Ford government is still in cruise control,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. ” If an election were held today, a PC majority with the Liberals in opposition would be the likeliest scenario.” The PCs have significant leads in every region of the province, most notably the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. Toronto is a little more competitive, where the Liberals are three points behind the PCs, with the NDP in third place at 24%. The Proposed 401 Tunnelled Express Way: A Possible Banana Peel For Ford? The survey asked respondents whether they would support building a tunnelled expressway under the 401. Premier Ford has said that a feasibility study will examine the possibility of building a tunnel underneath Canada’s busiest highway to add more lanes and relieve congestion. A total of 63% said that they opposed the building of the tunnel (52% said that they were strongly opposed), while 18% said that they were in favour of it. Opposition is based chiefly among supporters of the opposition parties. Still, there is also significant opposition from PC voters (a total of 40% of PC voters said they were opposed, while 34% said they supported the idea). A total of 28% said they were more likely to support building a tunnel underneath the 401 if it included a transit line, including 36% of respondents in Toronto, and 32% of respondents living in the Greater Toronto Area. More worryingly for the PCs, 39% of respondents said they would certainly vote against a party that promises to build the 401 tunnel, with 16% of PC voters saying that they would do so. “This should give the Ford government some pause and think about their messaging on the tunnel to Ontarians,” said Angolano. “It is highly unlikely that every PC voter who said they would not vote for a party that would build a tunnel would go out and vote for another party in the next election.” “But there are concerns with the proposed project. Commuters and Toronto drivers see all the congestion due to construction and are likely worried they might see something similar happen with the 401.” Little Concern About an Early Election The survey also asked respondents about their thoughts on the possibility of an early election, as there is speculation that one could be held in the Spring of 2025. 29% said they don’t want an early election, while 20% said they favour one. 31% said that they would be in favour of an early election if there were a good reason to have one, while 19% said that they didn’t care when the election was called. “Usually, when we ask questions about an early election, respondents tend to disapprove of an early election strongly,” said Angolano. “The fact that there isn’t much opposition to an early election means that Premier Ford can call one without fear of public backlash.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 15th, 2024 among a sample of 996 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Data: Most Accurate Polling Firm of 2024 British Columbia Election
(TORONTO, 20 OCTOBER 2024)— Pallas Data is the most accurate polling firm for the 2024 British Columbia provincial election. Pallas’ final poll only had 3% total error from the preliminary election results. This was the lowest total error of the ten polling firms that released estimates of British Columbians’ voting intentions ahead of the October 19th vote. “This is a great achievement for Pallas Data, as we got the closest to the actual results in the first election in which we tried to test our firm’s accuracy,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. Pallas Data was founded in 2023 in Toronto, ON. We frequently poll federally and provincially, and our polls have been featured in CBC, Radio-Canada, La Presse, Le Devoir, L’actualité, The Trillium, Politico, iPolitics, the National Post, and CTV News. While Pallas Data did end up taking first place, it is worth noting that nearly every polling firm provided close estimates of British Columbians’ intentions. “Often we talk about what goes wrong in the world, but we should also talk about when things go right,” continued Dr. Angolano. “While Pallas Data was the most accurate polling firm in this election, I should note that British Columbia and Canada as a whole are served very well by the Canadian polling industry that works very hard to measure Canadian public opinion accurately.”