Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 45, CPC 37, NDP 9, Green 1
(TORONTO, 14 April 2025) – The Liberals find themselves ahead by eight points of the Conservatives with two weeks to go before the election, a new Pallas Data survey has found. On April 12th, Pallas surveyed 1,282 Canadian adults aged 18 or older eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 45% (+1% from Pallas’ poll last week), while the Conservatives have 37% (-1%). The NDP has 9% (no change), while the Greens have 1% (-1%). The Bloc Québécois has 6% (no change), with 24% support in Quebec. “There has not been any statistically meaningful change from last week to this week, as all shifts remain well within our poll’s margin of error of 3%,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “We were projecting a Liberal majority of 200+ seats last week, and we would predict the same results this week.” Regionally, the Liberals show significant strength where it matters most, leading by 20 points in Quebec, 9 in Ontario, and 12 in British Columbia. While the Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals are also positioned to pick up seats in those regions. The poll also assessed voter perceptions of which leader would better handle key issues: The head-to-head comparison shows Poilievre made small gains on five of six issues since the previous poll two weeks ago, with Carney improving only on trade partnerships. However, most of Poilievre’s gains were within the margin of error, suggesting little meaningful change in how Canadians perceive the leaders’ abilities. The poll also found that most Canadians believe leaders’ debates are valuable in helping voters decide, with 54% agreeing (26% strongly, 28% somewhat) that debates serve this purpose. “Time is running out for the Conservatives,” noted Dr. Angolano. “While things can certainly change in the final two weeks, the Poilievre Conservatives need to become authors of their destiny much in the same way Mark Carney did four weeks ago.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on April 12th, 2025 among a sample of 1282 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 45, CPC 36, NDP 8, Green 3
(TORONTO, 1 April 2025) – The Liberals have expanded their lead over the Conservatives and now find themselves nine points ahead, a new Pallas Data poll has found. On March 31st, Pallas surveyed 1,267 Canadian adults aged 18 or older who are eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 45% (+3% from Pallas’ poll last week), while the Conservatives have 36% (-2%). The NDP has 8% (no change), while the Greens have 3% (+1%). The Bloc Québécois has 6% (-1%), with 24% support in Quebec. “The regional numbers paint a challenging picture for the Conservative campaign,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “With the Liberals holding large leads in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, we are witnessing what could become a historic realignment.” Regional breakdowns indicate overwhelming Liberal strength across most of the country, with particularly dominant numbers in Ontario. The party has reached 53% support—a level not seen since Jean Chretien’s 1993 landslide victory. The Liberals also show commanding leads in Atlantic Canada (57%), British Columbia (48%), and Quebec (41%). The Conservative Party maintains a stronghold in Alberta, with 67% support, and shows competitive strength in the Prairies, at 47%. The NDP, under Jagmeet Singh, shows notable strength in the Prairies (20%) and among younger voters, while the Bloc Québécois maintains 24% support in Quebec. Leadership Metrics Show Clear Preference for Carney Age demographics reveal significant patterns that could determine the election outcome. Liberal support increases dramatically with age, capturing 53% of voters 65 and older compared to 39% among those aged 18 to 34. The Conservatives show more consistent support across middle-aged brackets (39% among 35-49-year-olds) but struggle with the youngest and oldest voters. Beyond the topline numbers, leadership metrics strongly favour the Liberal leader on nearly all major issues facing Canadian voters: The Conservative leader maintains an advantage in only one category – leveraging Canada’s energy capabilities and pipeline development – where Poilievre leads 46% to Carney’s 38%. “Our data suggests Canadian voters are seeking a leader with gravitas to navigate challenging global circumstances,” Angolano added. “With only 27 days remaining before Election Day, the Conservative campaign faces significant hurdles in altering the current trajectory.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 31st, 2025 among a sample of 1267 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: LPC 42, CPC 38, NDP 8, Green 2
(TORONTO, 24 March 2025) – The 45th federal election campaign begins with the governing Liberals leading the Conservatives by four points, a Pallas Data poll has found. On March 22nd, Pallas surveyed 1225 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 42% (+8% from Pallas’ last poll in March), while the Conservatives have 38% (-2%). The NDP has 8% (-4%), while the Greens have 2% (no change). The Bloc Quebecois has 7% (no change), with 30% in Quebec. “This campaign begins defying every expectation with the Liberals finding themselves in majority territory as the campaign begins,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Pierre Poilievre – for the first time in two years – has to play catch-up.” The Liberal majority’s anatomy comes from their strong regional leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. Regional Breakdown:• British Columbia: Liberal 42%, Conservative 39%, NDP 9%, Green 7%• Alberta: Conservative 66%, Liberal 29%, NDP 4%• Prairies: Conservative 42%, Liberal 35%, NDP 21%• Ontario: Liberal 48%, Conservative 40%, NDP 8%, PPC 3%• Quebec: Liberal 40%, Bloc Québécois 30%, Conservative 20%, NDP 6%• Atlantic: Liberal 48%, Conservative 30%, NDP 16%, Green 4% Demographic Insights:The Liberals show particular strength among seniors (55% among 65+) and women (43%), while Conservatives lead with voters aged 35-49 (45%). The NDP performs best with younger voters (13% among the 18-34 cohort) and in Prairie provinces (21%). “We’ve seen this same divide in last year’s British Columbia elections,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The Liberals lead among Canadians over the age of 50 while the Conservatives lead among those younger than 50. The older group seems happy with the status quo while the other wants change.” Carney Effect Delivers for LiberalsPrime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership is outperforming Pallas’ hypothetical polling from a month ago, when polling showed the Liberals at 39% with Carney as leader. Conservative Support Remains ResilientDespite falling behind, the Conservative Party maintains strong regional performances with 39% support in British Columbia and 40% in Ontario – historically strong numbers that would typically signal a competitive position. However, the collapse of NDP support has disproportionately benefited the Liberals. NDP Faces Potential Historic LowAt 8% nationwide, the NDP is facing a potential crisis that could reduce it to just one or two seats—its worst showing since 1993. However, they may experience some rebound during the campaign period. Bloc Québécois Maintains Strong PositionWith 30% support in Quebec against the Liberals’ 40%, the Bloc begins the campaign well above its historical “redline” of 23%, where they would face an electoral blowout similar to 2011. This positions them to potentially maintain most of their current seats despite Liberal gains in Quebec. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 22nd, 2025 among a sample of 1245 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 46, OLP 29, NDP 17, Green 5
(TORONTO, 26 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives will go into tomorrow’s election with a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 989 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 25th-26th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 46% (+2% since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 29% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 17% (-3%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change). “The Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford are likely going to coast to a third straight majority government,’ said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Ford will enter esteemed company, becoming the first Ontario premier to win three straight majority governments since Leslie Frost in 1959.” “Based on these results, the Liberals should get official party status and win a minimum of 12 seats, but it is unclear whether they or the NDP will form Official Opposition.” The PCs maintain their strong leads in every region in Ontario. Their lead over the Liberals in Toronto is six points, and their lead in the Greater Toronto Area is fourteen points over the Liberals. In South Central Ontario, the PCs lead the NDP by eight points. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 25th-26th, 2025 among a sample of 989 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 44, OLP 28, NDP 20, Green 5
(TORONTO, 20 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives maintain a sixteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 953 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 18th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.2% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 44% (no change since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 20% (+1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change). “Everything is completely static in this Ontario election and the campaign has done very little to create any sort of dynamic in this election,’ said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Progressive Conservatives are in cruise control to winning their third straight majority next week.” “The one point of interest is who will form the Official Opposition: the Liberals or the NDP.” The PCs maintain their strong leads in every region in Ontario. Their lead over the Liberals in Toronto is eight points, and their lead in the Greater Toronto Area is twelve. In South Central Ontario, the PCs lead the NDP by eight points. More Ontarians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong Direction 57% of Ontarians think the province is headed in the wrong direction. 23% think Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 20% said they were unsure. “The number of Ontarians who said that the province is going in the wrong direction has been up four percent since the beginning of the election,” said Angolano. “So while support remains steady for the PCs, dissatisfaction for how the province is doing is up slightly.” Ford Seen As The Debate Winner25% of respondents said that PC leader Doug Ford won the leaders’ debate, while 19% said that Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie won. 8% said NDP leader Marit Stiles won, with 4% saying Green leader Mike Schreiner won. 13% said no leader won the debate, and 30% said they didn’t know. Among those who said that they watched the entire debate, 37% said that Ford won compared to 22% who felt Crombie won. 16% of those who said they watched the debate in full said Stiles won. “This finding points to an advantage for the PCs that we might see play out on election day,” observed Angolano. “Watching the leaders’ debate is a sign of civic engagement and willingness to participate in the democratic process. These people are likelier to vote on election day than the rest of the population.’ “If more people in this group think that Ford won the debate compared to the rest of the population, then this is a big advantage for the PCs next week.” Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 18th, 2025 among a sample of 953 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas British Columbia Poll: NDP 49, Conservative 41, Green 8
(TORONTO, 18 February 2025) – As the new British Columbia legislative session gets underway tomorrow with a new Speech from the Throne, a new Pallas Data poll finds that the NDP led by Premier David Eby has an eight-point lead over the opposition Conservatives. Among decided and leaning voters, The NDP has 49% (+4% since the general election), while the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 41% (-2%). With interim leader Jeremy Valeriote at the helm, the Greens are at 8% (no change). “Premier Eby and the NDP have been in a strong position since the election, as the legislative session begins tomorrow,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “British Columbians are mostly on board with Eby’s response to the U.S. tariffs and trust him the most on handling the trade issue.” The NDP has a twenty-two-point lead over the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver and is five points ahead on Vancouver Island. British Columbians Are Very Concerned About the U.S. Tariffs The survey also asked respondents if they agreed that the U.S. tariffs posed a massive threat to the British Columbia economy and could put the province into a recession. The number of respondents who are concerned about the economic impacts of the tariffs outnumbers those who are not concerned by a factor of two to one. 36% strongly agreed, with another 24% saying they somewhat agree (60% in total agree at some level). By comparison, 16% strongly disagreed, and 13% somewhat disagreed (a total of 29%). British Columbians Prefer Eby’s Approach To Tariffs Respondents were asked which response to the tariffs they preferred: either having British Columbia fully cooperate with the Trump administration and address their concerns about drugs and border security or having the province respond with retaliatory tariffs and removing American liquor from store shelves. BC Conservative leader John Rustad has suggested the first option, while David Eby said the province would do the second the day the tariffs were announced. The question only had respondents listen to each option and did not attribute either option to Eby or Rustad. 55% said that British Columbia should respond with retaliatory tariffs and remove American liquor from store shelves—and 30% preferred cooperation with the Trump administration. British Columbians are split on this along partisan lines. 76% of NDP voters favoured retaliatory tariffs, while only 20% of Conservative voters thought retaliatory tariffs were best. Conversely, 65% of Conservatives opted for full cooperation with the United States, while only 7% thought working with the Trump administration was best. Eby Most Trusted To Respond To Tariffs Finally, 43% of respondents said they most trust David Eby to respond to the U.S. tariffs. 34% said they trusted John Rustad the most, with 3% saying they trusted Jeremy Valeriote. 15% said that they were not sure. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 15th, 2025 among a sample of 677 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 44, OLP 28, NDP 19, Green 5
(TORONTO, 16 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives have a sixteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 11th-12th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 2.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 44% (-1% since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 19% (-2%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change). “The opposition parties are failing to land any blows on Ford PCs during this campaign,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “With that said, the NDP is starting to drop off compared to the Liberals.” “But nothing has changed in this election, and the PCs are coasting to another majority win.” The PCs have significant leads in every region in Ontario. They have a ten-point lead over the Liberals in Toronto and an eleven-point lead in the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. They find themselves ahead by sixteen points of the Liberals in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). Health Care, Housing and Cost of Living Top Issues for OntariansJust over three out of ten Ontarians (31%) cited health care as the issue that would motivate their vote in the next election, with 27% saying that housing and the cost of living were their most important issues. Despite the tremendous attention from the media and the PC campaign, only 11% said that tariffs and trade were the most important issues to them. “47% of respondents who said that they would vote Liberal in the next election said that health care was their top issue, so this would explain why Bonnie Crombie has focused heavily on the lack of family doctors in her campaign,” continued Angolano. Most Ontarians “Identify” As Car Drivers Transportation has become very politicized in Ontario, from the days when Mayor Rob Ford promised subways in Toronto and received heavy backlash from progressive city councillors to the debates about building more bike lanes and Premier Doug Ford promising to rip them up. “It’s almost as if the mode of transportation is no longer seen as a method by which we get from Point A to Point B but almost tied to our identity and core political beliefs, so this is something that we wanted to measure,” said Angolano. Just over seven out of ten Ontarians said they think of themselves first as car drivers, with 13% saying they identify as transit users. In Toronto, however, the number of people who say they are primarily transit users first almost doubled to 27%. “If anyone wanted to know why Doug Ford is spending so much time talking about building the tunnel underneath the 401 and beginning construction of Highway 413, it’s because he is catering to his base,” said Angolano. “81% of PC voters said that they consider themselves drivers first: higher than any other group in the province.” The Best Way To Build More Housing? Lower Development Charges Respondents were also asked what they thought should be the province’s top priority regarding housing. 27% said that the province should focus on lowering development charges, 23% said that the province should subsidize the building of more affordable housing, and 15% said that the provinces should allow for more fourplexes and secondary suites in municipalities. Development charges are fees collected from developers when building permits are issued to help pay for the cost of infrastructure required to provide municipal services to new developments, such as roads, transit, water and sewer infrastructure, community centres, and fire and police facilities. These charges have increased significantly over the last twenty years and by various rates across Ontario municipalities. For example, the development charge for building a single-detached home in Toronto increased by 1250% from 2009 to 2025. “Many experts have cited the dramatic increase of development charges over the years as creating a significant bottleneck in building more houses in Ontario,” said Angolano. “Nearly four in ten PC voters say that development charges should be reduced, which means that if Doug Ford secures another majority in a couple of weeks, he will have political capital amongst his base to fight municipalities in lowering development charges.” In November 2024, Vaughan Mayor Steven Del Duca announced that he would reduce development charges in the City. Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 11th-12th, 2025 among a sample of 2193 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age,gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: Canadians Do Not Approve Of Trump
(TORONTO, 9 February 2025) – The tariffs on Canadian products that U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed on tariffs have caused Canadians to think that our relations with the United States have gotten significantly worse over a month, the second part of a Pallas Data poll has found. On February 6th, Pallas surveyed 1241 Canadian adults 18 or older who were eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. 52% of Canadians say Canada’s relations with the United States are very poor. This is an increase of threefold from January when 17% of Canadians said they were very poor. “Trump’s tariffs have caused a sharp and emotional reaction among Canadians, causing us to rethink our entire relationship with the United States,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Canadians are used to seeing the United States as a friend and ally of Canada, but that view has now been exploded by Donald Trump and his anti-Canada rhetoric.” Strong Approval for Tariff RetaliationThe survey also found that Canadians strongly support the government’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs against the United States. 52% of respondents approve of Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs, with 43% saying they strongly approve. 36% said that they either strongly or somewhat disapproved. Only 4% said that they were not sure. “Canadians see the Trump tariffs as an honest and direct threat to the Canadian economy, and it is not surprising whatsoever that Canadians approve of the government’s response,” added Dr. Angolano. “Incumbents traditionally see their support climb in the middle of a crisis, and Canadians very clearly understand the tariffs as a crisis,” continued Angolano. “Therefore, the uptick in Liberal support is no surprise.” Strong Disapproval of Donald Trump The survey also found that Canadians overwhelmingly have a negative impression of Donald Trump. 62% of Canadians have a very unfavourable impression of Trump, with another 7% saying that they have a somewhat unfavourable impression. By contrast, 19% said they had a favourable impression of the U.S. President (10% said they had a very favourable impression of him; 9% said they had a somewhat favourable impression). “Donald Trump was never a very popular figure in Canada, but not even Prime Ministers or provincial premiers at the lowest point in their popularity had favourability numbers this poor,” said Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1241 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Federal Poll: CPC Still Lead, But A Carney-led LPC Would Win
(TORONTO, 9 February 2025) – While the federal Conservatives maintain a substantial but narrowing lead over the governing Liberals, the Liberals led by former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney would win an election if held today. Those are the findings of a new Pallas Data conducted on Thursday. On February 6th, Pallas surveyed 1241 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 40% support (-2% from Pallas’ last poll in January) , while the Liberals have 34% (+9%). The NDP has 12% (-6%), while the Greens have 2% (-2%). The Bloc Quebecois has 7% _-2%), with 31% in Quebec. “The Liberal resurgence is certainly because Donald Trump threatened Canada with tariffs, and the Trudeau government responded in kind,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Incumbents’ polling numbers improve in a crisis, and recent events are no different.” Despite the uptick in Liberal support, the Conservatives would win a majority with these numbers – albeit smaller than in January. Regionally, the Conservatives and the Liberals are tied in the Atlantic. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Quebecois by six points, but the Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario by four. The Conservatives have substantial leads in Alberta and the Prairies, while they have a narrower eight-point lead over the Liberals in British Columbia. Mark Carney Would Lead the Liberals To Victory If the Election Were Held Today The survey asked tested various ballot scenarios with three Liberal leadership candidates; Mark Carney, former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, and former Government House Leader Karina Gould. The results are the following (decided and leaning voters);With Carney as leader: LPC 39%, CPC 38%, NDP 9%, Bloc 7%, Green 2%, PPC 3%.With Freeland as leader: LPC 31%, CPC 41%, NDP 13%, Bloc 8%, Green 2%, PPC 3%.With Gould as leader: LPC 22%, CPC 42%, NDP 17%, Bloc 10%, Green 4%, PPC 3%. “These findings tell us that Carney is the only leader to add any sort of support to the Liberal Party, perhaps enough to power them to victory,” continued Angolano. “This doesn’t mean Carney would be guaranteed a win should they pick Carney as a leader,” continued Angolano. “What it does show us is that the voters are the most receptive to Carney as Liberal leader and his economic credentials, as Canada may face significant economic challenges from U.S. tariffs in the future.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1241 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of errorare higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 45, OLP 28, NDP 21, Green 5
(TORONTO, 5 February 2025) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found. In a poll that first appeared in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 1st-2nd, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 45% (+4% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll in October). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 21% (-1%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (-2%). “Doug Ford said he needed to call this election to get a larger mandate, and so far, it looks like his gambit is paying off,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The PCs would win a more significant majority if the election were held today. The PCs have significant leads over the Liberals and NDP in every region in the province. They lead the Liberals by 11% in Toronto, 13% in the Greater Toronto Area, and by 9% over the NDP in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor). “The PCs are strong enough in every region to the point that they head off the Liberals and the NDP to make gains,” continued Angolano. “The PCs would stand to gain seats from the NDP in the Hamilton-Niagara corridor if these numbers hold up.” Despite the Negatives, Ford’s Vote Is Still Holding Up Behind the voting intention numbers, the poll does show some negatives for Ford and the PCs. Over half (53%) of Ontarians think the province is heading in the wrong direction, with only 27% believing it is headed in the right direction. Moreover, when asked what Ontarians were the real reason why the election was called early, 60% said that Ford was calling the election early out of political self-interest, with 27% saying that he called the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. PC voters think the opposite of the generation population in both cases. Among this group of Ontarians, 53% believe the province is headed in the right direction, and 57% said Ford was calling the election to fight off the tariffs effectively. “The PCs have mastered the art of voter base satisfaction,” continued Dr. Angolano. “While they are happy to bring new voters into the fold, the Ford PCs know that the key to re-election is to keep 2022 PC voters in the tent.” Ontarians Are Very Concerned About the U.S. Tariffs Ontarians are very worried about the tariffs. 43% are extremely worried about the potential tariffs, with 28% saying they are somewhat worried. 18% said they were a little worried, and 8% were not worried. With that said, Ford is overwhelmingly the most trusted leader in representing Ontario’s interests regarding tariffs and trade. 50% of respondents said Ford was the best option, followed by Bonnie Crombie with 24%. 19% picked Marit Stiles, and 8% said Mike Schreiner. “So long as Ontarians remain concerned about the tariffs and Ontario’s trade relationship with the United States, Ford will have a distinct advantage in this election,” concluded Angolano. Methodology:The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 1st-2nd, 2005 among a sample of 1014 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.