(TORONTO, 30 July 2026) – A new Pallas Data poll of Vancouver finds Green candidate Pete Fry leading the race for mayor with 18% support, ahead of incumbent Ken Sim at 14% and Vancouver Liberal Kareem Allam at 12%. Colleen Hardwick of TEAM sits at 11%, COPE’s Stephanie Allen at 6%, OneCity’s William Azaroff at 4%, and Vote Vancouver’s Rebecca Bligh at 3%. A third of voters (34%) remain undecided.
The gender split cuts against Fry slightly and strongly favours Sim among men. Fry leads among women (20%) and trails Sim among men, where Sim’s 19% support is nearly double his 9% among women. Allam draws more than twice as much support from women (16%) as men (7%). Women are also somewhat more decided than men, with 36% of men undecided compared to 31% of women.
Home ownership status sharpens these patterns further. Sim’s support among homeowners (18%) is more than double what he draws from renters (7%), while Fry runs slightly ahead with renters (19%) over homeowners (17%). Renters are also the least decided group, with 40% undecided compared to 30.8% of homeowners.
“Usually we find incumbent mayors doing much better this close to an election, so Ken Sim find himself in real trouble,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Fry is slightly ahead of him, and he finds himself in a statistical tie with Allam.”
Sim’s approval is underwater
Asked directly whether they approve of Sim’s job performance as mayor, 28% of Vancouver voters approve (8% strongly, 20% somewhat) while 48% disapprove (34% strongly, 14% somewhat). Disapproval is worst among voters 50-64 (58%) and lowest among the youngest cohort, where a quarter of respondents sit on the fence rather than commit either way. Women disapprove more than men (50.3% versus 44.4%), and homeowners are the toughest audience of all, with 41.1% strongly disapproving of Sim’s performance – a notable result given homeowners are also his strongest voting bloc.
Council race shows a similar pattern
Vancouver’s council race tracks the mayoral numbers closely. Asked which party’s candidates they’d support for council, 13% of voters chose the Vancouver Greens, followed by the Vancouver Liberals at 12%, the Coalition of Progressive Electors at 11%, and ABC Vancouver at 10%. TEAM and the Vancouver Conservatives both have 7%, with OneCity at 2% and Vote Vancouver at 1%. Most voters are undecided (39%), a larger undecided share than in the mayoral race.
As on the mayoral ballot, renters lean further toward the Greens (20%) than homeowners do (10%), while ABC Vancouver’s council support is concentrated among homeowners (13%) and thin among renters (4%) – mirroring Sim’s own coalition almost exactly.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted July 20-24, 2026 among a sample of 312 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Vancouver and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, with respondents interviewed on landlines and cellular phones.
The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. This poll was commissioned by the Conservative Electors Association.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 5.5%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
