(TORONTO, 13 OCTOBER 2024) – A new Pallas Data poll has found that the governing NDP maintains a one-point lead over the BC Conservatives, showing no movement since Pallas last polled in August.
Pallas surveyed 699 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 12th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 42% (-2% since Pallas’ last poll in August). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 41% (-2%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 14% (+3%).
“This campaign feels like a long tactical boxing match of two heavyweights unable to land a knockout blow in the early or middle rounds,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “British Columbians still seem reluctant to give either the NDP or the BC Conservatives the lead with less than a week to go.”
“Things can change in the final week, of course, and I’m certain that the provincial election will be a topic of conversation at the dinner table this Thanksgiving,” continued Angolano.
British Columbians Think The Province Is Headed In The Wrong Direction – Still
A further sign of stasis among the electoral is there has been no change in British Columbians’ thinking about whether the province is headed in the wrong direction or not. Almost identical to Pallas’ polling last August, almost half (48%) of British Columbians say the province is headed in the wrong direction. 38% said the province is headed in the right direction.
“The voting intention numbers and the question about the direction of the province seem to show that there are two British Columbias,” added Angolano. “One is young, very dissatisfied with the status quo, and more likely to vote for John Rustad and the BC Conservatives. The other British Columbia is older and thinks the province is on the right track, and they are supporting David Eby.”
Fursteneau Scores Best Among Party Leaders
The survey also asked respondents about their impressions of the party leaders. Green Party Sonia Fursteneau was the only party leader with a positive net score of +8% (i.e., more respondents said they had a positive impression of the leader than a negative one).
Both David Eby and John Rustad had negative net scores. David Eby has a net score of -8%, and John Rustad has a score of -26%. 53% of respondents say they have a negative impression of him, and 42% say they have a negative impression of Eby.
“Fursteneau’s favorability ratings have improved undoubtedly because of her strong performance in the leaders’ debate,” said Angolano. “And David Eby can take some solace in the fact that while his favorability ratings are not good, they are better than John Rustad’s.”
“This might give a slight edge to the NDP as people make up their minds in the last week of the campaign,” Angolano concluded.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on October 12th, 2024, among a sample of 699 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
