(TORONTO, 3 October 2023) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a six-point lead over the NDP and the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In a poll first published in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1010 Canadian adults 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on September 26-27th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 33.4%, while the NDP led by Marit Stiles has 27.4%. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by interim leader John Fraser has 26.7%, and the Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 6.7%.
“The fallout from the Greenbelt scandal has hit the PCs hard as they have lost eight points of support since last year’s election,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano. “But they would still win a majority if an election were held today with these numbers.”
“This is because both the NDP and the Liberals are strong and cancel each other in many Ontario ridings,” continued Angolano. “This situation, coupled with the Tories’ strength in the Greater Toronto Area, means that the PCs are still at an advantage if Ontarians went to the polls today.”
The NDP has a ten-point lead over the PCs and the Liberals in Toronto, while the PCs lead by eleven over the Liberals in the GTA. While they find themselves behind the NDP in Eastern Ontario, the PCs lead in South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario.
Crombie most preferred to lead the Ontario Liberals
With the Ontario Liberals electing a new leader in December, the survey also presented respondents multiple hypothetical ballot scenarios with each leadership candidate as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. This poll was completed before Adil Shamji dropped out of the race.
Current Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie performs the best among all leadership candidates, with 29% of Ontarians saying they would vote Liberal if she were leader. She is followed by Beaches-East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith with 22% and then by Kingston and the Islands MPP Ted Hsu 20%.
Both Yasir Naqvi and Adil Shamji got 19%.
“At this stage, Ontarians are more drawn toward the possibility of a Bonnie Crombie-led OLP than anyone else,” said Angolano. “This might be because she is the best known of all the OLP leadership candidates, but she is the only one adding any value to the OLP brand right now.”
When asked which OLP leadership candidate is preferred to lead the party, 29% said Crombie, 9% said Erskine-Smith, 6% picked Ted Hsu, 3% selected Naqvi, while 1% said Shamji.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from September 26th-27th, 2023, among a sample of 1010 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
