(TORONTO, 10 October 2023) – The federal Liberals hold a seven-point lead over the Conservatives in the province of Quebec, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In the second part of its inaugural Quebec poll, Pallas surveyed 1095 adults living in Quebec 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 16th-17th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 34% support (unchanged since the last election). The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 28% (-4% since the last election), while the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have 25% (+6%). The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 7% (-3%), while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 3% (+1%).
“The Conservatives are definitely in the ascendancy in Quebec,” said Pallas Data CEO and Founder Dr. Joseph Angolano, “While the Liberals are holding steady, it would be the Conservatives under Poilievre gaining seats, most notably in the Quebec City region.”
In the Montreal area, the Liberals have almost a ten-point lead over the Bloc and a fifteen-point lead over the Conservatives, powered mostly by a huge lead on the island of Montreal (45% compared to 23% for the Bloc and 15% for the Conservatives).
The Conservatives, however, have a nine-point lead over the Bloc (35% to 26%), with the Liberals in third place with 21%.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from September 26th-27th, 2023, among a sample of 1095 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
