(TORONTO, 28 September 2023) – The governing Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Francois Legault has a sixteen-point lead over the Parti Quebecois, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In its inaugural Quebec poll, Pallas surveyed 1095 adults living in Quebec 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on September 26th-27th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 34%, while the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 19%. Three parties follow them in a three-way tie with 15%: Quebec Solidaire led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, the opposition Quebec Liberals led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime.
“The shine has come off the CAQ somewhat since their election win last year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “They would still win an election if one were held today, but they have lost support to the Parti Quebecois and the Quebec Conservatives.”
The CAQ won the 2022 Quebec election with just under 41% of the vote.
The CAQ draws their support from outside the Montreal and Quebec City metropolitan areas, where they have 55.5% support, followed by the PQ with 12%.
They also lead in the Montreal metropolitan area by nearly six points. The CAQ has 26%, while the PQ and the Liberals have 19% each. Quebec solidaire has 18%.
“The CAQ is in a three-way tie with the Liberals and Quebec solidaire, and enjoy nearly a six-point lead over the pequistes in the Montreal suburbs,” added Dr. Angolano. “This would put them in pole position should an election be held today.”
However, the situation is not as rosy for the CAQ in the Quebec City metropolitan area. The CAQ finds itself in a distant third with 14%, behind the Quebec Conservatives with 35% and the PQ with 30%.
“These numbers are particularly interesting with a by-election in the Quebec City riding of Jean-Talon on October 2nd,” continued Dr. Angolano. “As political followers will know, by-elections are very different creatures than general elections as they are very dependent on voter turnout capabilities of the campaigns, voter turnout and motivation.”
“That said, it would be a surprise if the CAQ were to win comfortably on Monday given these results.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from September 26th-27th, 2023, among a sample of 1095 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.96% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
