Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 30, NDP 18, Green 5

(TORONTO, 27 January 2026) – The Progressive Conservatives maintain a thirteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found, but nearly half of Doug Ford’s voting coalition says they support the PCs because there’s no better choice right now.

In a poll conducted for The Trillium, Pallas Data surveyed 1,015 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on January 24th, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 43%. The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 30%, while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 18%. The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5%.

“The PCs continue to hold a commanding lead across the province, strong enough for another majority,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But the composition of Ford’s coalition is remarkable—it’s not purely a matter of conscience; much of it looks like a marriage of convenience.”

The PCs have significant leads in every region in Ontario. They lead by six points in Toronto (39% to 33%), nine points in the Greater Toronto Area (48% to 31%), and have a commanding thirty-four point lead in Northern Ontario (52% to 18%). They are also ahead in South Central Ontario (40% to 32%), Eastern Ontario (38% to 32%), and Southwestern Ontario (40% to 28%).

The good news for the Liberals is that, while they are at 30% (no difference from their 2025 election total), their vote appears much more efficient than in years past, and they have sizeable leads over the NDP in every region except Northern Ontario.

A Marriage of Convenience: 48% of PC Voters Say They Have No Better Choice
The poll reveals a striking dynamic within Ford’s coalition. When asked why they’re voting PC, 52% of PC voters said the party aligns with their values and beliefs, while 48% said they don’t have a better choice at this time.

“What’s notable about the Ford voting coalition is that nearly half of his voting base is voting for him because they don’t think anyone is better,” said Angolano. “Now, there are two explanations for why this is the case. The first holds that, while Ford is a terrible leader, he is winning by default because the opposition leaders are worse. The second is that people think there is no better choice than Ford because he made the other options look worse.”

Ford has beaten six opposition leaders—Mike Schreiner, Andrea Horwath, Kathleen Wynne, Steven Del Duca, Marit Stiles, and Bonnie Crombie—on the road to three straight majorities, increasing the PCs’ vote share every time.

Ford Enjoys Credibility Bridge Even With Opposition Voters
When asked if they would be more or less likely to vote PC if the party were led by someone other than Doug Ford, 36% of Ontarians said they would be less likely, while 34% said they would be more likely—a net positive for the three-term Premier.

More remarkably, the effect crosses partisan lines. Among NDP voters, 2% more say they would be less likely to vote PC without Ford. Among Liberal voters, it’s 4% more.

“Those numbers reflect the trust Ford enjoys,” said Angolano. “The fact that Liberal and NDP voters say they are less likely to vote for the PCs without Doug Ford suggests he enjoys significant cache even with Ontario voters who won’t vote for his party. Voters may not like him, but they trust him enough to pick him over the alternatives.”

Strong Support for Canada-China Trade Deal Divides Along Partisan Lines
Ontarians show strong support (60%) for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent deal to allow 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into Canada at low tariffs in exchange for China lifting duties on Canadian canola and seafood. However, the issue divides sharply along partisan lines.

While 87% of NDP voters and 91% of Liberal voters support the deal, 61% of PC voters oppose it, with 48% strongly opposed.

When tested on Doug Ford’s criticism that the deal is a “lopsided deal” that risks Ontario’s auto jobs, 63% of Ontarians disagreed with the Premier. PC voters are split (47% agree with Ford, 46% disagree), but overwhelming majorities of opposition voters reject Ford’s position.

Support for Carney’s stated strategy of diversifying trade away from the U.S. by getting Chinese carmakers to invest in Canadian factories is even stronger, with 66% of Ontarians backing the approach.

“Spy Cars” Messaging Resonates With PC Base
Premier Ford’s characterization of Chinese-made EVs as “spy cars” due to cybersecurity concerns appears to resonate strongly with his base. When asked if this makes them more or less likely to purchase a Chinese EV, 75% of PC voters said less likely (53% much less likely).

However, 54% of NDP voters and 53% of Liberal voters said Ford’s messaging makes them more likely to purchase such a vehicle, suggesting the rhetoric may be hardening rather than bridging partisan divides on the issue.

Carney Holds Overwhelming Trust Advantage on Trade
When asked who they trust more to manage Canada’s economic relationship with the United States and China, 61% of Ontarians chose Prime Minister Mark Carney, compared to just 14% who chose Premier Doug Ford.

Even among PC voters, Carney holds an edge, with 35% trusting him more versus 32% trusting Ford more on the file.

“Ford has set a standard of performance and trust that both opposition leaders must surpass,” said Angolano. “Elections aren’t won by making closing arguments and presenting evidence. They are won by earning voters’ trust. Champions have to be beaten in the ring.”

Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on January 24th, 2026 among a sample of 1,015 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.