Pallas Quebec Poll: PQ 34, PLQ 27, PCQ 15, CAQ 11, QS 8

(MONTREAL, January 20, 2026) – The Parti Québécois holds a ten-point lead over the Quebec Liberal Party, according to a Pallas Data poll, as 55% of Quebecers expect the PQ to win the next election.

In a survey conducted for QC125, Pallas surveyed 1,128 Quebec adults aged 18 and over and eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on January 9-10, 2026. The margin of error is ±2.9% at the 95% confidence level.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Québécois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon sits at 34%. The Quebec Liberal Party, currently in a leadership race, follows at 24%, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec and Ruba Ghazal’s Québec solidaire are tied at 16% and 11% respectively. François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec stands at 11%.

“The PQ is positioned to win clearly across every region of the province,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But support for sovereignty remains in the minority, and Quebecers are clearly reluctant about the idea of a referendum in a first PQ mandate.”

The PQ holds substantial leads in most regions of Quebec. It leads by 13 points in the rest of Quebec (35% vs 14% for the PLQ), by 12 points in the Quebec City region (30% vs 14% for the PLQ), and by 8 points in Montreal’s suburbs (43% vs 27% for the PLQ). The PLQ retains an advantage on the island of Montreal (36% vs 23% for the PQ).

Quebecers Expect a PQ Victory
When asked which party will win the next election regardless of their political preference, 55% of Quebecers name the PQ, compared to just 18% for the PLQ. Even among CAQ voters, 20% expect a PQ victory, compared to 52% who believe their own party will win.

“The expectation of a PQ victory crosses partisan lines,” Angolano noted. “This suggests that momentum for thePQ is widely recognized, even by those who wouldn’t vote for them.”

Sovereignty Remains in the Minority
Despite the PQ’s strong performance in voting intentions, support for Quebec sovereignty remains well below the 50% threshold. If a referendum were held today, 54% of Quebecers would vote against sovereignty, compared to 35% who would vote for it.

Opposition to sovereignty is particularly strong among older voters (61% among 50-64 year-olds) and on the island of Montreal (67%). Among francophones, 45% oppose sovereignty while 42% support it.

Notably, 73% of Quebecers say their referendum vote is decided in advance and final. Among those who would vote “no,” 79% say their position is firm and definitive, compared to 83% among those who would vote “yes.”

Weak Support for First-Mandate Referendum
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has stated that if the PQ wins the next election, his government would hold a referendum on sovereignty in its first mandate. This proposal faces strong opposition, as 62% of Quebecers oppose it, including 46% who strongly oppose it.

Even among PQ voters, support for a first-mandate referendum is only 67%. Among QS voters, 56% oppose the idea, and 92% of PLQ voters and 81% of CAQ voters also oppose it.

“There’s a significant gap between electoral support for the PQ and support for its sovereignty project,” Angolano noted. “Many Quebecers appear willing to vote for the PQ without necessarily supporting an immediate referendum on sovereignty.”

Leader Impressions: Legault Collapses, Plamondon Dominates
Quebecers’ impressions of François Legault are overwhelmingly negative: 75% have an unfavourable impression of the premier (52% very unfavourable), compared to just 12% who have a favourable impression.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon enjoys markedly more positive impressions: 35% of Quebecers have a favourable impression of him (16% very favourable), compared with 43% who are unfavourable. Even among PLQ voters, 6% have a favourable impression of Plamondon.

PLQ leadership candidate Charles Milliard remains largely unknown. 36% of Quebecers have a neutral impression of him, and 11% are uncertain. Only 20% have a favourable impression of him.

Québec solidaire’s Ruba Ghazal and the PCQ’s Éric Duhaime both receive mostly negative impressions (45% unfavorable for Ghazal, 60% for Duhaime).

Methodology:
The analysis contained in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted on January 9-10, 2026 among a sample of 1,128 adults, aged 18 and over, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender and region according to the 2021 census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population of Quebec.

The margin of error for the survey is ±2.9%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher within each subsample.

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.