Parti Québécois leads despite majority opposition to sovereignty referendum
(TORONTO, 17 September 2025) – The Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, holds an 11-point lead over the Quebec Liberal Party in voting intentions, despite a majority of voters opposing a sovereignty referendum, a Pallas Data poll has found.
On September 6, 2025, Pallas conducted a survey of 1,187 adults in Quebec, aged 18 or older and eligible to vote, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has 38%, the Quebec Liberal Party under Pablo Rodriguez has 27%, the Conservative Party of Quebec led by Éric Duhaime has 15%, the Coalition Avenir Québec under François Legault has 11%, and Québec solidaire led by Ruba Ghazal has 8%.
“The PQ is widely favoured to win the next election,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “If an election were held today, a PQ government would be the most likely scenario.”
PQ Expected to Win by Large Margin
When asked which party will win the next Quebec election scheduled for October 5, 2026, regardless of their political preference, 57% believe the PQ will win, compared to 23% for the PLQ and only 8% for the CAQ.
This perception crosses partisan lines—even 33% of Liberal voters and 28% of CAQ supporters expect a PQ victory.
Majority Opposes Sovereignty and Quick Referendum
Despite the PQ’s strong position, a majority of Quebecers (55%) would vote against sovereignty in a referendum, while 35% would vote in favour.
Opposition is particularly strong among 35-49 year-olds (64% against) and 50-64 year-olds (61% against), while younger voters aged 18-34 are more divided, with 46% against and 40% in favour.
Little Enthusiasm for Immediate Referendum
Regarding Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s promise to hold a sovereignty referendum in a PQ government’s first mandate, 64% of voters oppose this idea (49% strongly unfavourable, 15% somewhat unfavourable), while only 32% support it.
Even among PQ voters, support is not unanimous—65% back the idea of a quick referendum, but 20% oppose it.
Legault Faces Steep Unpopularity
Premier François Legault faces dire approval ratings, with 77% holding unfavourable opinions (52% very unfavourable, 25% somewhat unfavourable) compared to only 10% favourable.
This unpopularity contrasts with more balanced perceptions of other leaders. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon enjoys 44% favourable opinions against 38% unfavourable, while Pablo Rodriguez scores 23% favourable versus 41% unfavourable.
Sharp Linguistic Divide
The poll reveals stark linguistic divisions. Among francophones, the PQ dominates with 46% support, followed by the PLQ at 17%. Among non-francophones, it’s reversed: the PLQ captures 63% support versus only 9% for the PQ.
This linguistic polarization also manifests in attitudes toward sovereignty: 47% of francophones oppose sovereignty, compared to 82% of non-francophones.
Regional Strength for PQ
The PQ shows broad regional appeal, leading in the Quebec City region (46%) and the rest of Quebec (46%), while remaining competitive in Montreal, where the PLQ leads 35% to 25%.
The party’s strength outside Montreal reflects its traditional base while suggesting potential for broader electoral success.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on September 6, 2025 among a sample of 1,187 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
