(TORONTO, 24 March 2025) – The 45th federal election campaign begins with the governing Liberals leading the Conservatives by four points, a Pallas Data poll has found.
On March 22nd, Pallas surveyed 1225 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 42% (+8% from Pallas’ last poll in March), while the Conservatives have 38% (-2%). The NDP has 8% (-4%), while the Greens have 2% (no change). The Bloc Quebecois has 7% (no change), with 30% in Quebec.
“This campaign begins defying every expectation with the Liberals finding themselves in majority territory as the campaign begins,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Pierre Poilievre – for the first time in two years – has to play catch-up.”
The Liberal majority’s anatomy comes from their strong regional leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia.
Regional Breakdown:
• British Columbia: Liberal 42%, Conservative 39%, NDP 9%, Green 7%
• Alberta: Conservative 66%, Liberal 29%, NDP 4%
• Prairies: Conservative 42%, Liberal 35%, NDP 21%
• Ontario: Liberal 48%, Conservative 40%, NDP 8%, PPC 3%
• Quebec: Liberal 40%, Bloc Québécois 30%, Conservative 20%, NDP 6%
• Atlantic: Liberal 48%, Conservative 30%, NDP 16%, Green 4%
Demographic Insights:
The Liberals show particular strength among seniors (55% among 65+) and women (43%), while Conservatives lead with voters aged 35-49 (45%). The NDP performs best with younger voters (13% among the 18-34 cohort) and in Prairie provinces (21%).
“We’ve seen this same divide in last year’s British Columbia elections,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The Liberals lead among Canadians over the age of 50 while the Conservatives lead among those younger than 50. The older group seems happy with the status quo while the other wants change.”
Carney Effect Delivers for Liberals
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s leadership is outperforming Pallas’ hypothetical polling from a month ago, when polling showed the Liberals at 39% with Carney as leader.
Conservative Support Remains Resilient
Despite falling behind, the Conservative Party maintains strong regional performances with 39% support in British Columbia and 40% in Ontario – historically strong numbers that would typically signal a competitive position. However, the collapse of NDP support has disproportionately benefited the Liberals.
NDP Faces Potential Historic Low
At 8% nationwide, the NDP is facing a potential crisis that could reduce it to just one or two seats—its worst showing since 1993. However, they may experience some rebound during the campaign period.
Bloc Québécois Maintains Strong Position
With 30% support in Quebec against the Liberals’ 40%, the Bloc begins the campaign well above its historical “redline” of 23%, where they would face an electoral blowout similar to 2011. This positions them to potentially maintain most of their current seats despite Liberal gains in Quebec.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 22nd, 2025 among a sample of 1245 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
