(TORONTO, 12 April 2024) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre maintain a fifteen-point lead over the governing Liberals, a new Pallas Data poll has found.
On April 8th, Pallas surveyed 2375 Canadian adults 18 or older who were eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 41% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 26%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh at the helm has 18%, while the Greens led by Elizabeth May have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 7%, but 30% in Quebec.
“The federal scene remains static with the Conservatives maintaining a commanding lead over the Liberals,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Pierre Poilievre would win a substantial majority if the election were held today.”
The Conservatives have large leads in every region in the country, most notably an eleven-point lead in seat-rich Ontario over the Liberals and a twenty-point lead over the NDP in British Columbia.
Quebec is the only region where the Conservatives do not have a lead. They are in a second-place tie with the Liberals behind the Bloc Quebecois.
“I don’t think there is anything Justin Trudeau can do now to move the needle in his favour,” continued Dr. Angolano. “The pre-budget announcements might be good policy, but it seems Canadians have made up their minds about his government and would like a change.”
“New policy and better governing aren’t going to change Liberal fortunes—that ship sailed last year. Only the glaring eye of an election campaign might shift public support away from the Conservatives,” continued Angolano.
There is a significant gender gap. The Conservatives have a thirty-point lead among men over the Liberals (52% to 22%) but find themselves tied with the Liberals at 31% among women.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on April 8th, 2024 among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
