(TORONTO, 20 February 2024) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have a three-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In a poll first published in the Trillium, Pallas surveyed 1121 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on February 10-11th, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford has 34.5% (+1.1% since Pallas’ last Ontario poll). The Ontario Liberals led by newly elected leader Bonnie Crombie have 31.6% (+4.9%), while the NDP led by Marit Stiles has 21.6% (-5.8%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 7.3% (+0.6%).
“The Ontario Liberals have gotten a bounce from electing Bonnie Crombie, the former Mayor of Mississauga, mostly at the expense of the NDP,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “The Liberals have taken the outright lead in Toronto and have made gains in the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area.”
The PCs still have substantial leads over the NDP and the Liberals in Eastern Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. They maintain a six-point lead over the Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area, but find themselves four points behind the NDP in South Central Ontario (otherwise known as the Hamilton-Niagara corridor) and tied with the Liberals.
“While the Ford PCs would lose most of their seats in Toronto, they may still eke out a small majority over the Liberals with these numbers if an election were held today,” added Angolano. “Otherwise, these numbers could lead to a ‘major minority,’ similar to the one Dalton McGuinty won in 2011.”
The survey also asked Ontarians if they thought the Ford government lived up to its 2018 and 2022 campaign slogans.
When asked if the Ford government has lived up to its 2018 slogan of governing “for the people,” 21% thought they had lived up to the slogan, while 67% said they had not.
“It is not a surprise to see voters give low marks on a government’s performance in the middle of a term,” added Angolano. “But what is noteworthy is that just under four in ten respondents said they voted PC in 2022. This tells us that Ford’s base has concerns about his government’s performance.”
The survey also asked Ontarians if they thought the Ford government was doing enough on six critical issues facing Ontarians today, given the Ford PCs campaigned on “getting it done.” The six issues were building roads, building housing, supporting health care, supporting public education, supporting a strong economy, and liberalizing alcohol sales.
Ontarians only gave a passing grade to the Ford government on liberalizing alcohol sales, with 52% of respondents saying that the PCs were doing enough on this file. Only 23% said that the Ford government was doing enough to build the housing Ontario needs, and just under a third (32%) said that they were ‘getting it done’ to support a strong economy.
“The Ford PCs heavily relied on the ‘Get It Done’ slogan in the last campaign to communicate to the Ontarian voter that they could deliver results,” said Angolano. “Ontarians do not think the Ford PCs have delivered, and there is a significant gap between perceived reality and what voters expect this government to do in its second term.”
