(TORONTO, 21 August 2023) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have a nine-point lead over the governing Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In its inaugural federal poll, Pallas surveyed 1021 Canadian adults 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on August 16th-17th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 39% support, while the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 30%. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has 17%, while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 5%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet have 7%, but 29% in Quebec.
“The Poilievre Conservatives have had an excellent summer and would be on a cusp of a majority if an election were held today”, said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Poilevre would only need to gain slightly in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic to secure a majority.”
The Conservatives lead the Liberals in every region except Quebec and the Atlantic. In Quebec, they find themselves in a statistical tie with the Bloc and the Liberals, which could lead to some very close three-way races in some Quebec ridings if the election were held today.
As for the Atlantic, the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a statistical tie, indicating that the Conservatives are poised for a breakthrough in the region.
“The Liberals ought to be concerned about these numbers,” continued Angolano. “They can’t lose seats in both the Atlantic region and Ontario if they want to stay in power.”
“These results could be the result of one of two things: either this is just a summer malaise that the Liberals have found themselves in before,” continued Angolano. “If so, then the Liberals could rebound.”
“Or this could be a hardening shift from Justin Trudeau to Pierre Poilievre in public opinion. If so, Trudeau and the Liberals must reset to shift the tide.”
The poll was prepared exclusively for 338 Canada and L’actualité. Today we release the first part of these results.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from August 16-17th, 2023, among a sample of 1021 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
