(TORONTO, October 25, 2026) – Olivia Chow heads into tomorrow’s election with her lead over Brad Bradford back to ten points, according to a new Pallas Data poll conducted October 24. Bradford’s gains from mid-October have reversed in the final week of the campaign.
Among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow has 53% (+1% since October 14), and Brad Bradford has 43% (-3%). Another 4% (+1%) back a different candidate.
“Torontonians are settling in on a choice: they are going to stick with Olivia Chow,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “It seems as though Brad Bradford has not convinced enough Torontonians to trust him with the keys to the Mayor’s Office.”
Scarborough is the city’s most competitive region. While Chow led there 57% to 42% ten days ago, Bradford now has 46% to Chow’s 45%.
With that said, Chow leads in Old Toronto 64% to 32% (up from 61% to 37%) and has opened a wide lead in East York. Bradford still leads in North York (57% to 40%) and has moved ahead in Etobicoke and York, 50% to 46%.
“Scarborough is the one place Bradford made real progress this week. Everywhere else, Chow either held or gained,” said Angolano.
Toronto Still Unhappy With Its Mayor and Council
Despite her lead in voting intentions, more Toronto voters disapprove of her performance than approve. 40% are satisfied with Chow as mayor and 48% are dissatisfied, nearly identical to our poll released on October 14th. A third of Torontonians (33%) are very dissatisfied.
City Council fares worse. 19% are satisfied with council’s performance and 50% are dissatisfied.
Chow’s own voters are largely satisfied with her (75%) but cool on council, with just 34% satisfied and 38% neutral. Undecided voters are the most negative: 58% are dissatisfied with the mayor, and only 9% are satisfied.
“These undecided voters not going to Bradford in the late stages might end up costing him the win tomorrow,” added Angolano. “These people are very unsatisfied with Chow.”
The mood has lifted slightly in the campaign’s final week. 42% now say the city is on the right track, up from 39%. The gap has narrowed from seven points to three.
“Nobody fell back in love with Olivia Chow this week. Enough voters just decided the city is doing well enough that changing mayors isn’t worth the risk,” said Angolano.
Méthodologie
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 24th, 2026 among a sample of 608 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age and gender according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
