(TORONTO, October 16, 2026) – Olivia Chow still leads the race for mayor of Toronto, but Brad Bradford has gained ground since Chris Alexander dropped out, according to a new Pallas Data poll conducted October 14.
Among decided and leaning voters, Olivia Chow has 52% (+2% since August), and Brad Bradford has 46% (+7%). Another 3% back a different candidate. Undecided voters have fallen to 12%, half of what they were in August.
“Chow is still ahead, but the cushion she had in August is mostly gone,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
Geography divides the city. Chow leads in Old Toronto (61% to 37%) and Scarborough (57% to 42%). Bradford leads by 20 points in North York (59% to 39%). Etobicoke and York is tied, with Chow at 47% and Bradford at 46%. East York is close as well, at 50% to 48%.
Women favour Chow 56% to 43%, while men lean Bradford 49% to 47%.
Voters aged 18 to 34 are split down the middle, with each candidate at 49%. Chow leads among voters aged 35 to 49 (55% to 41%) and those 65 and older (56% to 43%). Bradford leads among voters 50 to 64 (50% to 47%).
“Bradford has collected most of the voters who think the city is on the wrong track. What he hasn’t done is give anyone else a reason to come over,” said Angolano.
Toronto Still Unhappy With Its Mayor and Council
Views of the mayor have barely moved all year. 39% are satisfied with Chow’s performance and 49% are dissatisfied, almost exactly where she stood in March. City Council fares worse, with 22% satisfied and 54% dissatisfied.
46% say the city is headed in the wrong direction and 39% say it is on the right track. Among Bradford’s voters, 84% say the city is on the wrong track.
63% say the City is not doing enough to make Toronto more affordable for everyday residents, and 57% say it is not doing enough on housing. Still, the share who think the City is doing enough on housing has risen to 22%, from 18% in August and 13% in March.
Torontonians are split on how to fix housing. 38% prefer increasing supply by cutting development charges and speeding up construction. 35% would rather protect renters and expand social housing, and 27% are unsure. Bradford’s voters prefer the supply approach 56% to 11%. Chow’s voters prefer renter protection 55% to 24%.
Majority Supports Bike Lane Removal
52% of Torontonians support the Ontario government’s removal of bike lanes on Bloor Street West and its plans to remove them on Yonge Street and University Avenue. 41% are opposed.
Support and opposition line up with the mayoral race. 88% of Bradford voters back the removal, and 72% of Chow voters oppose it. Old Toronto is the only region where a majority (57%) is opposed.
“Bradford is on the popular side of this one, but it’s popular mostly with people already voting for him,” said Angolano.
Méthodologie
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on October 14th, 2026 among a sample of 732 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age and gender according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.6%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
