(TORONTO, 24 November 2023) – The Parti Quebecois have taken a stunning lead over the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec, a new Pallas Data Quebec survey has found.
Pallas surveyed 1178 adults in Quebec 18 years or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on November 17th-18th, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 2.86% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 30% (+11% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in September), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 24% (-10%). Quebec Solidaire, led by Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, and the opposition Quebec Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay are tied with 16% (both +1%), and the Conservative Party of Quebec with Eric Duhaime has 11% (-4%).
“This is the first time that the Parti Quebecois has led any provincial poll in over ten years,” said Pallas founder and CEO Dr. Joseph Angolano. “This is a stunning turn of events in Quebec politics, as the CAQ has dominated it for the last five years.”
The PQ is powered by substantial leads over the CAQ among voters under 64, while the CAQ still leads among voters over 65. The CAQ slumped to third in the Quebec City CMA behind the PQ and the Quebec Conservatives, and also find themselves behind the PQ in the Montreal suburbs and the rest of Quebec.
“The usual bastions of support for the CAQ, i.e., the regions, the Montreal suburbs, and middle-aged voters, have flocked to the PQ”, continued Angolano. “In short, the PQ have played Pac-Man with the CAQ’s traditional base of support.”
“It’s not surprising that the CAQ has lost a lot of support over the last two months as they are having a rough time,” added Angolano. “Minister Girard’s economic statement wasn’t received well, especially when it was followed by a $5-7 million subsidy given to the Los Angeles Kings to play exhibition games in Quebec City by the provincial government.”
“All of these things – plus a teachers’ strike, a nurses’ strike, and now a SPGQ strike – has led to what can only be described as an autumn of discontent for the CAQ, and it shows in this survey,” concluded Angolano. “But what will sting the CAQ even more is that all of its support has bled to the PQ – none of it has gone to the other parties.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from November 17th-18th, 2023, among a sample of 1178 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, language, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
