(TORONTO, February 27, 2026) – The Parti Québécois remains in the lead, but a resurgent Liberal Party, and a CAQ leadership contest with a clear frontrunner are reshaping the political landscape ahead of the October 2026 election.
In a survey conducted for QC125, Pallas Data surveyed 1,075 Quebec adults aged 18 and over and eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on February 21-22, 2026. The margin of error is ±3% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondo,n sits at 30%, followed by the Quebec Liberal Party under Charles Milliard at 27%, the Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime at 16%, the Coalition Avenir Québec at 14%, and Québec solidaire under Ruba Ghazal at 10%.
“The PQ remains in the lead, but this is a fundamentally different race than it was a month ago,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data.
The PLQ Is Back
The most striking finding in this poll is the Liberal surge. The PLQ has jumped three points since our January poll, gaining ground in Montreal and its suburbs.
The PLQ now leads on the Island of Montreal with 34%, compared to 16% for the PQ. In the Montreal suburbs, the gap between the two parties has narrowed to just over two points. This means many seats that once looked PQ safe are now genuinely competitive.
The PQ Remains Ahead, But the Lead Has Narrowed
The PQ still holds the strongest position of any party and remains the favourite to win a majority government in October. With these numbers, the PQ would win a razor-thin majority.
Fifty-two percent of Quebecers, regardless of their own voting intention, expect the PQ to win the next election.
But the majority that once looked guaranteed now looks like hard work. The PQ slipped four points from January, and the regional picture shows the party ceding ground in exactly the areas where it needs to hold firm.
Sovereignty: Still in the Minority
Despite the PQ’s continued lead, support for Quebec sovereignty sits well below the threshold required to win a referendum. Sixty percent of Quebecers say they would vote against sovereignty if a referendum were held today, compared to 32% who would vote for it, a shift in the wrong direction for the sovereigntist cause compared to our January numbers.
Opposition to sovereignty is strongest among the 50-64 age cohort (68%), on the Island of Montreal (74%), and among non-francophones (85%). Among francophones, the split is closer, 53% against and 37% in favour, but still well short of a winning coalition for the PQ.
“There’s a significant and persistent gap between electoral support for the PQ and support for its sovereignty project,” Angolano noted.
The CAQ Leadership Race: Advantage Fréchette
With François Legault stepping down, the CAQ must choose between Christine Fréchette and Bernard Drainville as its next leader and, by extension, Quebec’s next premier until the October election. Our findings could not be clearer about the public’s preference.
Forty-seven percent of Quebecers say Fréchette would make a better premier, compared to just 17% for Drainville. Among CAQ supporters themselves, 57% back Fréchette versus 29% for Drainville.
The favourability numbers tell an even starker story. Drainville carries a 62% negative rating, the worst of any politician tested except Legault himself. Only 13% of Quebecers have a favourable impression of him. Fréchette, by contrast, has a mixed but far more manageable profile: 26% favourable, 32% unfavourable, and 39% neutral.
Our findings on CAQ vote retention reinforce this picture. Nineteen percent of Quebecers say Fréchette could convince them to vote CAQ, compared to just 10% for Drainville. Sixty-two percent say neither candidate could bring them back to the party, a sobering number for a party hoping that a leadership change will spark a revival.
Leader Impressions
François Legault’s ratings have deteriorated further since January: 72% of Quebecers now hold an unfavourable impression of him, including 54% who are very unfavourable. Only 12% view him favourably.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains the best-regarded leader in the field, with 34% holding a favourable impression compared to 46% unfavourable, a relatively strong position in a polarized environment. Among his own voters, 86% view him favourably.
Charles Milliard sits at 23% favourable and 30% unfavourable, with 43% neutral, a profile that reflects his newness on the scene but also real upside potential as he becomes better known.
Éric Duhaime and Ruba Ghazal both carry net negative ratings (60% and 45% unfavourable, respectively), though Duhaime retains intense loyalty among PCQ voters, with 89% viewing him favourably within his own base.
Methodology
The analysis contained in this report is based on the results of a survey conducted February 21-22, 2026 among a sample of 1,075 adults aged 18 and over, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology on landlines and cell phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 census. The margin of error is ±3.0% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher within each subsample. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
