(TORONTO, 26 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives will go into tomorrow’s election with a seventeen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 989 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 25th-26th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 46% (+2% since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 29% (+1%), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 17% (-3%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change).
“The Progressive Conservatives led by Doug Ford are likely going to coast to a third straight majority government,’ said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Ford will enter esteemed company, becoming the first Ontario premier to win three straight majority governments since Leslie Frost in 1959.”
“Based on these results, the Liberals should get official party status and win a minimum of 12 seats, but it is unclear whether they or the NDP will form Official Opposition.”
The PCs maintain their strong leads in every region in Ontario. Their lead over the Liberals in Toronto is six points, and their lead in the Greater Toronto Area is fourteen points over the Liberals. In South Central Ontario, the PCs lead the NDP by eight points.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 25th-26th, 2025 among a sample of 989 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 44, OLP 28, NDP 20, Green 5
(TORONTO, 20 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives maintain a sixteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll
