(TORONTO, 17 April 2024)—44 percent of Canadians think that the federal Liberals would do better in the next election if Justin Trudeau resigned. However, only 23 percent said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the Prime Minister were to leave.
On April 8th, Pallas Data surveyed 2375 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.% at the 95% confidence level.
“It seems as though Canadians expect a Trudeau-less Liberals would do better in the next election based on how they think others will vote, not themselves,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Their own vote, however, would likely not go to the Liberals in the next election, no matter who they have as leader.”
“This indicates that Justin Trudeau has become a lightning rod for Liberal fortunes writ large. Canadians would like to see him go, and therefore think the Liberals would do better in the next election without him,” continued Dr. Angolano. “But the fact that only one in five Canadians would actually vote Liberal if he were to quit tells me that the Liberals would likely not do any better with a different leader, and if Trudeau were to go, voters would likely find another reason not to vote Liberal in his absence.”
When asked if they were more or less likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau were to resign before the next election, 23 percent said they were more likely to Liberal if the Prime Minister left, with 18 percent saying that they were less likely to vote Liberal. 53 percent said that Trudeau potentially leaving would not affect their vote.
On the other hand, 44 percent of Canadians agree with the statement, “The chances of the Liberals winning the election would be better if someone other than Justin Trudeau were running as a leader.” (28 percent strongly agree, 16 percent somewhat agree), compared with 29 percent disagreeing.
Older respondents are less likely to believe that the Liberals would do better without Trudeau, which closely correlates with Liberal support, which increases as respondents age.
Similarly, Liberals voters are also the least likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau were to resign (33 percent), the group with the highest resistance to change their vote.
Deep Pessimism About Personal Finances and Economy Among Canadians
The survey also found that 57 percent of Canadians are deeply pessimistic about their household finances. 37 percent said they were deeply pessimistic, and a further twenty percent said they were somewhat pessimistic. This is offset by twenty percent who expressed optimism about their household finances.
Canadians are more concerned about the Canadian economy. 64 percent said they were pessimistic about the economy (40 percent said they were deeply pessimistic, with 24 percent saying they were somewhat pessimistic). Only 16 percent said they were optimistic.
“Canadians’ concern about the economy and personal finances is a big reason why the Conservatives are doing so well in our polling,” said Dr. Angolano. “A party’s electoral chances are almost always tied to whether voters see them as good stewards of the economy, and on that front, the Liberals are not doing well at all.”
Pessimism for both the economy and younger Canadians is higher among younger respondents. For example, nearly half of the respondents (43 percent) between 18 and 34 said they were strongly pessimistic about their current household finances, compared to 29 percent of respondents aged 65 or older.
Generation Divide On What Are Perceived As Top Issues
38 percent of Canadians think that inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues facing the country right now, followed by healthcare (15%), housing (14%), and immigration (11%).
“James Carville said back in 1992 that it’s about ‘the economy, stupid’ and things haven’t changed in 2024,” said Dr. Angolano. “Yet older respondents are more concerned about health care than they are about the cost of living – health care is the number one issue for Canadians over 65.”
“The same applies to housing. Younger Canadians – who are more likely not to own a home – are far more concerned about this issue than older Canadians who likely own homes bought twenty years ago when homes were more affordable and seem less sensitive to the issue,” continued Angolano.
“This difference in issue prioritization – coupled with their differing levels of economic pessimism – between older and younger respondents is remarkable. They have almost entirely incompatible views of the country – it is as if they look at Canada through different lenses.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on April 8th, 2024 among a sample of 2375 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
