(TORONTO, 10 March 2026) – Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford by six points in Toronto’s 2026 mayoral race, but a new Pallas Data poll finds a city deeply dissatisfied with its direction and unconvinced either challenger is ready to change it.
Among all voters, Chow leads Bradford 35% to 29%, with 11% saying they would vote for another candidate and 25% undecided. Among decided voters only, Chow leads 47% to Bradford’s 38%.
“Chow’s lead is real, but it is more structural than earned,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “She is ahead because the opposition has not consolidated behind a single candidate. That can change.”
When Michael Ford is added to the ballot, Chow holds at 36% while Bradford drops to 22% and Ford takes 17%. Among decided voters in the three-way race, Chow leads at 44%, Bradford sits at 26%, and Ford is at 21%. Ford’s entry does not hurt Chow. It cuts Bradford nearly in half.
The neighbourhood breakdown tells the story of the race. Bradford leads Chow 42% to 17% in North York among decided voters and holds a similar edge in Etobicoke-York. Chow dominates in Old Toronto and East York, where she commands 57% among decided voters.
Scarborough sits at 34% undecided. This is the most volatile part of the city, and likely the most decisive.
Failing Grades on Housing and Affordability
Forty-nine percent of Torontonians say the city is headed in the wrong direction. 50% say they are dissatisfied with Mayor Chow’s performance, with 37% describing themselves as very dissatisfied. Only 35% are satisfied: roughly matching her vote share in the horse race.
The housing numbers are worse. 65% say the city is not doing enough on housing. 68% say the same on affordability. Both figures hold at 13% satisfied across the board.
“The numbers on housing and affordability are not a positive reflection on Chow’s performance so far,” said Angolano. “The city has rendered a verdict. The question is whether the challengers can be a credible alternative.”
“Without that credibility established, then Chow has a large enough coalition to win again in October.”
The Housing Cleavage
41% of Torontonians say the housing problem should be solved by increasing supply through cutting development charges and speeding up construction. 36% say the priority should be to protect renters and expand social housing. Twenty-three percent are unsure.
Among Bradford voters, 62% favour the supply approach. Among Chow voters, 59% favour renter protection. The directional crosstab is starker still: among those who say the city is headed in the right direction, 58% favour renter protection. Among those who say wrong direction, 59% favour supply.
Torontonians aged 35-49 break 50% for supply versus 28% for protection. The 18-34 cohort is exactly split, 44% each: pulled simultaneously toward ownership aspirations and rental market relief.
“Knowing that housing is the top issue tells you almost nothing on its own,” said Angolano. “The frustrated majority is speaking two completely different languages, and Chow has locked up the group that wants to see renters’ protection and social housing expanded.”
Chow holds the protection frame. But that coalition is a minority in a city dominated by wrong-direction sentiment. Council’s failure to pass citywide as-of-right sixplexes in June 2025, at the cost of $471 million in federal Housing Accelerator Fund money, sits on the record as the clearest example of that tension.
Bradford’s path is through the supply-side Torontonians want change and have a policy frame ready. Whether they see Bradford as the candidate to deliver it is a different question, and the poll suggests they are not yet convinced.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 7th-8th, 2026, among a sample of 735 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted via automated telephone interviews with Interactive Voice Recording (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census.
The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.6%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
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