(TORONTO, 21 January 2026) – The federal Liberals maintain a narrow three-point lead over the Conservatives, while the NDP climbs to 11% support—the first time the party has reached double digits in over a year, a new Pallas Data survey has found.
The survey, conducted in partnership with the Next Campaign conference, was conducted on January 10th-12th and surveyed 1120 Canadian adults aged 18 or older, eligible to vote, using PharoVoice, Pallas Data’s AI voice survey platform. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 40% (-1% from Pallas’ poll last month), while the Conservatives have 37% (-1%). The NDP has 11% (+3%), while the Greens have 3% (-1%). The Bloc Québécois has 7% (-1%), with 30% support in Quebec.
The poll also reveals deep public concern about artificial intelligence in political campaigns, with nearly three-quarters of Canadians worried that fake AI content will influence the next election.
Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoys a net positive approval rating of +8%, though this personal popularity has not yet fully translated into Liberal vote share.
“The Liberals should be encouraged by these numbers,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Carney won in 2025 largely because the NDP collapsed to just 6% of the vote. The fact that the Liberals can maintain a national lead even with the NDP recovering to 11% suggests Carney may be compensating for losses on his left flank by winning over centrist and moderate Conservative voters.”
The familiar pattern of regional polarization persists, with Conservatives dominating in Alberta and the Prairies, while Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The age divide also remains stark: Liberals lead by 15 points among voters 65 and older, while Conservatives would have a narrow edge if older voters were excluded from the calculation.
Carney’s personal brand continues to outpace his party’s vote share. His net approval of +8% suggests room for Liberal growth, particularly in British Columbia, where he enjoys +18% net approval and Ontario, where he sits at +23%.
Interestingly, despite the NDP’s recovery to 11%, NDP supporters still give Carney a +20% net approval rating, suggesting these voters remain vulnerable if the next election becomes framed as a two-way race between Carney and Poilievre.
Significant Concern About AI
The poll reveals widespread concern about the use of artificial intelligence in political campaigns. 72% of Canadians are concerned that the next federal election will be influenced by fake AI content, with 47% saying they are “very concerned.”
An even larger majority (73%) disapprove of political parties using AI to make content or contact voters. Perhaps most striking, 82% of respondents report having encountered fake AI content online or on social media.
The survey also uncovered evidence of partisan motivated reasoning. When asked about political parties in general, only 13% approve of using AI. However, when asked specifically about their preferred party’s use of the technology, approval jumps to 18%.
“This is one of the most methodologically interesting findings we’ve uncovered,” Dr. Angolano noted. “The same technology, the same application—but approval increases by five points when it’s your own team doing it. It’s a textbook example of partisan motivated reasoning.”
The survey was conducted using PharoVoice, Pallas Data’s AI-powered voice agents, demonstrating the technology’s capabilities in professional research applications.
Methodology:
The analysis is based on results of a survey conducted January 10-12, 2026, among a sample of 1,120 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with AI Live Agents on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The margin of error is +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level.
