(TORONTO, 17 December 2025) – A new Pallas Data poll finds the BC NDP maintaining a lead over the Conservatives, though the margin has narrowed since February. Among decided voters, the NDP has 44% (-5% since February), while the BC Conservatives have 39% (-2%). The Greens are at 9% (+1%), and OneBC is at 7%.
“The race has tightened considerably since February,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “But the choice of Conservative leader could be decisive if an election were to come in British Columbia in 2026.”
Conservative Leadership Race Wide Open
Among BC Conservative Party members and those interested in membership, the leadership race remains highly competitive. Aaron Gunn leads with 23%, followed by Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 10%, Peter Milobar at 8%, and Caroline Elliott at 8%. However, 44% remain undecided.
Regional Splits Favour NDP in Metro Vancouver
The NDP maintains a seventeen-point lead in Metro Vancouver (49% to 32% among decided voters) and a sixteen-point lead on Vancouver Island (43% to 27%). The Conservatives lead in the Rest of BC (48% to 36%).
The NDP performs significantly better among women voters (52% to 33%) than men (36% to 45%). The Conservatives lead among voters 50-64 (44% to 38%) but trail among seniors 65+ (50% to 34%).
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 11th-13th, 2025 among a sample of 923 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia.
This poll was commissioned by the Pacific Conservative Foundation.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
