(TORONTO, 18 December 2025) – Canada’s political landscape remains frozen in place as two fundamentally incompatible visions of the country’s future have crystallized, with economic patriotism emerging as the defining fault line, a new Pallas Data poll has found.
In the second wave of Canada’s Economic Patriotism Index (EPI), Pallas surveyed 1,074 adults across Canada from December 13th-15th, 2025 using PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and IVR. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level.
Federal Voting Intentions Remain Static
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, have 41% support, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, trail at 38%. The NDP has 8% and the Bloc Québécois 8%.
“Regarding federal voting intentions, nothing has changed since the election,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Despite Michael Ma’s dramatic defection at the Liberal Christmas Party and rumours of more Conservative MPs crossing the floor, the fundamentals haven’t budged since August.”
The Liberals maintain solid leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, but trail in Alberta, the Prairies, and British Columbia. A Liberal victory appears likely, but a majority remains out of reach.
Economic Patriotism: An Identity, Not an Opinion
The most striking finding from Round 2 of the Economic Patriotism Index is how little has changed despite the holiday shopping season and ongoing trade tensions. The distribution of Canadians across the low, moderate, and high economic patriotism categories is virtually identical to that in August’s results.
“When polling data doesn’t move at all over months—especially through major events like the holidays—you’re not measuring an opinion or attitude anymore. You’re measuring an identity,” said Angolano.
The Partisan Divide Deepens
Economic patriotism splits decisively along party lines:
- 48% of Liberal voters have high economic patriotism, compared to just 17% of Conservatives
- 51% of Conservative voters have low economic patriotism, compared to only 9% of Liberal supporters
- Even Bloc Québécois voters (29% high economic patriotism) demonstrate nearly twice the rate of Conservatives
“This creates two solitudes—and I mean that literally,” noted Angolano. “Liberal voters are willing to pay more for Canadian goods and accept lower living standards for sovereignty. Conservative voters want exactly the opposite: cheaper foreign goods, including gasoline, and higher living standards even if it means deeper integration with the United States.”
Canadians Still Walking the Walk
Despite four months of additional economic pressure, Canadians’ patriotic purchasing behaviours have held remarkably steady:
- 73% actively look for “Made in Canada” labels when shopping (no change from August’s 74%)
- 67% have changed their purchasing behaviour due to trade disputes or political tensions (-4% from August)
- 65% have chosen more expensive Canadian products over cheaper foreign alternatives (-1% from August)
The Generational Divide
Economic patriotism increases significantly with age, creating a generational fault line that aligns with partisan preferences. Younger Canadians experiencing acute economic hardship are far less likely to embrace economic patriotism—not because they hate Canada, but because they feel the country has broken its social contract with them.
“Younger Canadians don’t feel they have the luxury of being patriotic about a country that’s letting them down, much less making financial sacrifices for it,” said Angolano.
Why Nothing Changes
Both Carney and Poilievre have their voter segments locked down, and these segments are intractable, immutable, and incommensurate. If you fall in the Liberal camp, you find nothing appealing about Poilievre, and vice versa. Neither leader has made any overtures to voters on the other side.
“Poilievre will likely survive his January leadership review because his base is locked. But no one else is interested,” noted Angolano. “And he can’t expand without betraying his core supporters—low economic patriotism is a Conservative value now.”
Implications for 2025 and Beyond
The data reveal Canada isn’t experiencing normal political competition, but rather a fundamental incompatibility between two visions of the country.
“The next election won’t resolve this tension,” said Angolano. “It will simply give us another snapshot of a divided nation that can’t decide which direction it wants to go.”
About the Economic Patriotism Index
Pallas Data’s Economic Patriotism Index measures Canadians’ willingness to sacrifice prosperity and well-being for economic independence. The index is based on four key questions about:
- Paying more for gasoline and imported food if it helps protect Canadian jobs
- Willingness to pay more for Canadian-made products compared to identical foreign alternatives
- Willingness to prioritize economic independence over maximum economic growth
- Willingness to accept lower living standards to keep Canada’s economic independence
Respondents receive -2 points for each statement they strongly disagreed with, -1 for every statement they somewhat disagreed with, +1 for every statement they somewhat agreed with, and +2 for every statement they strongly agreed with. No points were awarded for neutral responses or “don’t know” answers.
Respondents were then categorized as follows:
- -8 to -3: Low Economic Patriotism
- -2 to +2: Moderate Economic Patriotism
- +3 to +8: High Economic Patriotism
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 13th-15th among a sample of 1074 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews via PharoVoice, Pallas Data AI voice survey platform and Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
