(TORONTO, 12 JUNE 2025) – A new poll conducted by Pallas Data reveals that Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow maintains the exact same level of support she received in the 2023 by-election, despite significant voter dissatisfaction with both her performance and the city’s overall direction.
On June 7th, Pallas surveyed 611 adults living in Toronto aged 18 or older eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 4% at the 95% confidence level.
Key Findings:
Mayoral Race Remains Competitive If a municipal election were held today, Mayor Chow would receive 37% of the vote among decided and leaning voters, identical to her 2023 victory margin. Former Mayor John Tory would capture 24% despite being out of office for two years, while Councillor Brad Bradford would earn 14% and former Liberal cabinet minister Marco Mendocino would receive 11%.
City Direction Concerns Half of Toronto voters (50%) believe the city is headed in the wrong direction, with only 29% saying it’s on the right track. However, among Chow’s supporters, 69% believe the city is moving in the right direction, suggesting she has retained her core base.
Performance Ratings Show Challenges Both the Mayor and City Council face significant approval challenges:
- 53% of respondents are dissatisfied with Mayor Chow’s performance (36% very dissatisfied)
- 51% are dissatisfied with City Council’s performance (32% very dissatisfied)
- Despite the negatives, Chow outperforms Council, with 32% satisfied with her performance compared to just 18% for Council
Top Issues Facing Toronto Crime and public safety tops voter concerns at 25%, followed by traffic congestion (23%) and housing (20%). Public transit, economic development, and municipal taxation round out the key issues.
Analysis
“Despite some challenging numbers, Mayor Chow appears to be in a strong position for re-election,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “She has maintained her electoral coalition from 2023, and with John Tory as her strongest potential opponent rather than a fresh face calling for change, the dynamics favour continuity over transformation.”.
The poll suggests that while Torontonians express frustration with city governance, Chow has successfully retained her base of support. The 37% vote share has been sufficient to win every Toronto mayoral election since 2003, positioning her well for the 2026 municipal election.
Geographic and Demographic Patterns Chow’s support is strongest in Old Toronto (47%) and among voters 65+ (44%). She leads across most demographic groups, though faces more competition in suburban areas like Etobicoke-York where she trails with 30%.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on June 7th, 2025 among a sample of 611 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Toronto and are eligible to vote in municipal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
