(TORONTO, 27 April 2025) – The Liberals find themselves ahead by four points of the Conservatives as the 45th federal election comes to a close, a new Pallas Data survey has found.
On April 26th, Pallas surveyed 1,294 Canadian adults aged 18 or older eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 43% (no change from Pallas’ poll on Tuesday), while the Conservatives have 39% (+1%). The NDP has 7% (-2%), while the Greens have 2% (+1%). The Bloc Québécois has 6% (no change), with 28% support in Quebec.
“These results indicate a Liberal majority as the most likely scenario on election night,” says Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “While Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative team has run their strongest campaign since 2011, it appears it will not be enough to win government this time.”
Regional Breakdown
The poll reveals significant regional variations that favour a Liberal victory:
- Atlantic Canada: Liberals 57%, Conservatives 33%
- Quebec: Liberals 41%, Bloc Québécois 28%, Conservatives 22%
- Ontario: Liberals 51%, Conservatives 40%
- Prairies: Conservatives 62%, Liberals 27%
- Alberta: Conservatives 66%, Liberals 21%
- British Columbia: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 34%, NDP 13%
Voter Commitment
The poll also measured voter commitment, finding that 91% of respondents consider their choice final. Liberal and Conservative voters show the highest commitment to their choice (95% and 94% respectively), while supporters of smaller parties indicate more flexibility, with 24% of Green Party voters and 38% of PPC voters saying they might change their minds.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on April 26th, 2025 among a sample of 1294 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology.
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
