(TORONTO, 14 April 2025) – The Liberals find themselves ahead by eight points of the Conservatives with two weeks to go before the election, a new Pallas Data survey has found.
On April 12th, Pallas surveyed 1,282 Canadian adults aged 18 or older eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 45% (+1% from Pallas’ poll last week), while the Conservatives have 37% (-1%). The NDP has 9% (no change), while the Greens have 1% (-1%). The Bloc Québécois has 6% (no change), with 24% support in Quebec.
“There has not been any statistically meaningful change from last week to this week, as all shifts remain well within our poll’s margin of error of 3%,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “We were projecting a Liberal majority of 200+ seats last week, and we would predict the same results this week.”
Regionally, the Liberals show significant strength where it matters most, leading by 20 points in Quebec, 9 in Ontario, and 12 in British Columbia. While the Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals are also positioned to pick up seats in those regions.
The poll also assessed voter perceptions of which leader would better handle key issues:
- Trade partnerships: Carney leads by 29 points (61% vs. 32%)
- U.S. tariffs: Carney leads by 24 points (58% vs. 34%)
- Housing shortage: Carney leads by 10 points (47% vs. 37%)
- Cost of living: Carney leads by 6 points (46% vs. 40%)
- Military self-reliance: Carney leads by 9 points (47% vs. 38%)
- Energy and pipelines: Poilievre leads by 9 points (48% vs. 39%)
The head-to-head comparison shows Poilievre made small gains on five of six issues since the previous poll two weeks ago, with Carney improving only on trade partnerships. However, most of Poilievre’s gains were within the margin of error, suggesting little meaningful change in how Canadians perceive the leaders’ abilities.
The poll also found that most Canadians believe leaders’ debates are valuable in helping voters decide, with 54% agreeing (26% strongly, 28% somewhat) that debates serve this purpose.
“Time is running out for the Conservatives,” noted Dr. Angolano. “While things can certainly change in the final two weeks, the Poilievre Conservatives need to become authors of their destiny much in the same way Mark Carney did four weeks ago.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on April 12th, 2025 among a sample of 1282 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
