(TORONTO, 1 April 2025) – The Liberals have expanded their lead over the Conservatives and now find themselves nine points ahead, a new Pallas Data poll has found.
On March 31st, Pallas surveyed 1,267 Canadian adults aged 18 or older who are eligible to vote using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 45% (+3% from Pallas’ poll last week), while the Conservatives have 36% (-2%). The NDP has 8% (no change), while the Greens have 3% (+1%). The Bloc Québécois has 6% (-1%), with 24% support in Quebec.
“The regional numbers paint a challenging picture for the Conservative campaign,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “With the Liberals holding large leads in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, we are witnessing what could become a historic realignment.”
Regional breakdowns indicate overwhelming Liberal strength across most of the country, with particularly dominant numbers in Ontario. The party has reached 53% support—a level not seen since Jean Chretien’s 1993 landslide victory.
The Liberals also show commanding leads in Atlantic Canada (57%), British Columbia (48%), and Quebec (41%).
The Conservative Party maintains a stronghold in Alberta, with 67% support, and shows competitive strength in the Prairies, at 47%.
The NDP, under Jagmeet Singh, shows notable strength in the Prairies (20%) and among younger voters, while the Bloc Québécois maintains 24% support in Quebec.
Leadership Metrics Show Clear Preference for Carney
Age demographics reveal significant patterns that could determine the election outcome. Liberal support increases dramatically with age, capturing 53% of voters 65 and older compared to 39% among those aged 18 to 34. The Conservatives show more consistent support across middle-aged brackets (39% among 35-49-year-olds) but struggle with the youngest and oldest voters.
Beyond the topline numbers, leadership metrics strongly favour the Liberal leader on nearly all major issues facing Canadian voters:
- Affordability and cost of living: Carney 47%, Poilievre 38%
- International trade partnerships: Carney 59%, Poilievre 32%
- Housing crisis solutions: Carney 48%, Poilievre 36%
- Managing U.S. tariff challenges: Carney 57%, Poilievre 32%
- Military defense independence: Carney 51%, Poilievre 35%
The Conservative leader maintains an advantage in only one category – leveraging Canada’s energy capabilities and pipeline development – where Poilievre leads 46% to Carney’s 38%.
“Our data suggests Canadian voters are seeking a leader with gravitas to navigate challenging global circumstances,” Angolano added. “With only 27 days remaining before Election Day, the Conservative campaign faces significant hurdles in altering the current trajectory.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 31st, 2025 among a sample of 1267 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
