(TORONTO, 16 February 2025) – The Progressive Conservatives have a sixteen-point lead over the Ontario Liberals, a Pallas Data poll has found.
In a poll that first appeared in Village Media, Pallas surveyed 1014 adults in Ontario, 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology from February 11th-12th, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 2.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs, led by Doug Ford, have 44% (-1% since Pallas’ previous Ontario poll last week). The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, have 28% (no change), while the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, has 19% (-2%). The Ontario Greens, with Mike Schreiner at the helm, have 5% (no change).
“The opposition parties are failing to land any blows on Ford PCs during this campaign,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “With that said, the NDP is starting to drop off compared to the Liberals.”
“But nothing has changed in this election, and the PCs are coasting to another majority win.”
The PCs have significant leads in every region in Ontario. They have a ten-point lead over the Liberals in Toronto and an eleven-point lead in the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area. They find themselves ahead by sixteen points of the Liberals in South Central Ontario (or the Hamilton-Niagara corridor).
Health Care, Housing and Cost of Living Top Issues for Ontarians
Just over three out of ten Ontarians (31%) cited health care as the issue that would motivate their vote in the next election, with 27% saying that housing and the cost of living were their most important issues. Despite the tremendous attention from the media and the PC campaign, only 11% said that tariffs and trade were the most important issues to them.
“47% of respondents who said that they would vote Liberal in the next election said that health care was their top issue, so this would explain why Bonnie Crombie has focused heavily on the lack of family doctors in her campaign,” continued Angolano.
Most Ontarians “Identify” As Car Drivers
Transportation has become very politicized in Ontario, from the days when Mayor Rob Ford promised subways in Toronto and received heavy backlash from progressive city councillors to the debates about building more bike lanes and Premier Doug Ford promising to rip them up.
“It’s almost as if the mode of transportation is no longer seen as a method by which we get from Point A to Point B but almost tied to our identity and core political beliefs, so this is something that we wanted to measure,” said Angolano.
Just over seven out of ten Ontarians said they think of themselves first as car drivers, with 13% saying they identify as transit users. In Toronto, however, the number of people who say they are primarily transit users first almost doubled to 27%.
“If anyone wanted to know why Doug Ford is spending so much time talking about building the tunnel underneath the 401 and beginning construction of Highway 413, it’s because he is catering to his base,” said Angolano. “81% of PC voters said that they consider themselves drivers first: higher than any other group in the province.”
The Best Way To Build More Housing? Lower Development Charges
Respondents were also asked what they thought should be the province’s top priority regarding housing. 27% said that the province should focus on lowering development charges, 23% said that the province should subsidize the building of more affordable housing, and 15% said that the provinces should allow for more fourplexes and secondary suites in municipalities.
Development charges are fees collected from developers when building permits are issued to help pay for the cost of infrastructure required to provide municipal services to new developments, such as roads, transit, water and sewer infrastructure, community centres, and fire and police facilities.
These charges have increased significantly over the last twenty years and by various rates across Ontario municipalities. For example, the development charge for building a single-detached home in Toronto increased by 1250% from 2009 to 2025.
“Many experts have cited the dramatic increase of development charges over the years as creating a significant bottleneck in building more houses in Ontario,” said Angolano. “Nearly four in ten PC voters say that development charges should be reduced, which means that if Doug Ford secures another majority in a couple of weeks, he will have political capital amongst his base to fight municipalities in lowering development charges.”
In November 2024, Vaughan Mayor Steven Del Duca announced that he would reduce development charges in the City.
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from February 11th-12th, 2025 among a sample of 2193 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age,
gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Ontario.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
