Pallas Federal Poll: CPC Still Lead, But A Carney-led LPC Would Win
(TORONTO, 7 January 2025) – While the federal Conservatives maintain a substantial but narrowing lead over the governing Liberals, the Liberals led by former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney would win an election if held today. Those are the findings of a new Pallas Data conducted on Thursday. On February 6th, Pallas surveyed 1241 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.8% at the 95% confidence level. Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 40% support (-2% from Pallas’ last poll in January) , while the Liberals have 34% (+9%). The NDP has 12% (-6%), while the Greens have 2% (-2%). The Bloc Quebecois has 7% _-2%), with 31% in Quebec. “The Liberal resurgence is certainly because Donald Trump threatened Canada with tariffs, and the Trudeau government responded in kind,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Incumbents’ polling numbers improve in a crisis, and recent events are no different.” Despite the uptick in Liberal support, the Conservatives would win a majority with these numbers – albeit smaller than in January. Regionally, the Conservatives and the Liberals are tied in the Atlantic. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Bloc Quebecois by six points, but the Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario by four. The Conservatives have substantial leads in Alberta and the Prairies, while they have a narrower eight-point lead over the Liberals in British Columbia. Mark Carney Would Lead the Liberals To Victory If the Election Were Held Today The survey asked tested various ballot scenarios with three Liberal leadership candidates; Mark Carney, former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, and former Government House Leader Karina Gould. The results are the following (decided and leaning voters);With Carney as leader: LPC 39%, CPC 38%, NDP 9%, Bloc 7%, Green 2%, PPC 3%.With Freeland as leader: LPC 31%, CPC 41%, NDP 13%, Bloc 8%, Green 2%, PPC 3%.With Gould as leader: LPC 22%, CPC 42%, NDP 17%, Bloc 10%, Green 4%, PPC 3%. “These findings tell us that Carney is the only leader to add any sort of support to the Liberal Party, perhaps enough to power them to victory,” continued Angolano. “This doesn’t mean Carney would be guaranteed a win should they pick Carney as a leader,” continued Angolano. “What it does show us is that the voters are the most receptive to Carney as Liberal leader and his economic credentials, as Canada may face significant economic challenges from U.S. tariffs in the future.” Methodology: The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on February 6th, 2025 among a sample of 1241 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and are eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of errorare higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.