Pallas Data

Majority of Quebecers Want Legault To Resign Before Next Election

(TORONTO, December 1 2024) – 53% of Quebecers think that Premier Francois Legault should resign before the next election and not seek a third term.

Pallas surveyed 1093 adults in Quebec who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on November 26, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level.

When asked whether Legault should resign or seek a third term, 53% of respondents said he should resign as leader of the Coalition Avenir de Quebec, while 33% said he should run for a third term in 2026. 15% said that they were unsure.

“It is remarkable to see how much Legault’s fortunes have fallen in a year,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “Most Quebecers think it is time for a leadership change, and now the CAQ are faced with one of two options – leave things as is and hope for the opposition parties to make a mistake, or try to deliver significant change, even if it means changing leaders.”

The survey also found high dissatisfaction with Legault’s work as Premier. A total of 20% expressed some satisfaction with Legault (5% said they were very satisfied, with 15% saying they were somewhat satisfied). By comparison, 39% said they were very unsatisfied with Legault’s work as Premier, and 24% said they were somewhat dissatisfied.

“The numbers have some parallels with Justin Trudeau’s favourabilities six months ago and should give the CAQ some pause,’ continued Angolano. “I think the CAQ find themselves at a crossroads, and while they made not need to change leaders to improve their fortunes necessarily, they need to do things differently and change course if they want to be competitive in the next election.”


This satisfaction has had an effect on voting intention, as only one in five Quebecers say that they would vote for the CAQ if an election were held today.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Parti Quebecois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 35% (+1% since Pallas’ last Quebec poll in October), while the CAQ led by Francois Legault has 20% (-2%). The Liberals, led by interim leader Marc Tanguay, have 18% (no change). The Conservative Party of Quebec led by Eric Duhaime has 13% (-1%), while Quebec Solidaire with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois at the helm has 12% (no change).

“The CAQ is in danger of being wiped off the electoral map with numbers like these,” continued Angolano. “The PQ leads in every region of Quebec, and with the Liberals maintaining their stronghold in the western part of the Island and the Conservatives building a bit of an electoral beachhead in the Quebec City area, it could spell big trouble for the CAQ in the next election.”


Methodology:

The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on September 26th, 2024, among a sample of 1111 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Quebec and eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Quebec. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

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