(TORONTO, 18 OCTOBER 2024)—The final Pallas Data poll before tomorrow’s election found that the governing NDP has a three-point lead over the BC Conservatives. The NDP will likely be re-elected in tomorrow’s election.
Pallas surveyed 712 adults in British Columbia who were 18 years or older and eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology on October 17-18, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the BC NDP, led by Premier David Eby, has 45% (+1% since Pallas’ last pol). The BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, have 42% (-1%). The Green Party, with Sonia Furstenau at the helm, has 9% (-2%).
“David Eby looks to have done enough to secure a win for the BC NDP, with a majority the likeliest scenario,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, Founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “However, the NDP needs a stronger get-out-the-vote operation than the Conservatives to win a majority tomorrow.”
The NDP has an eleven-point lead over the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver, while the Conservatives lead by ten in the interior. Vancouver Island looks like a three-way fight, with the NDP leading by four points over the Conservatives and the Greens in third with 20%.
“The campaign has had its twists and turns, including the former opposition party completely shutting down its operations to endorse the Conservatives, but it looks like David Eby’s team will win tomorrow.”
The NDP will bring a slender lead into election day amidst ambivalence among British Columbians about the province’s direction. Almost half (46%) of respondents said the province is headed in the wrong direction. 39% said the province was headed in the right direction, while 15% said they were unsure.
“Whoever wins tomorrow’s election will govern a divided province not only by region – which is nothing new to British Columbia politics – but also a significant generational divide,” said Angolano. “Older British Columbians are happy with the status quo, but younger voters are not, and they are flocking to the BC Conservatives.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted from October 16th-17th, 2024 among a sample of 712 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
