(TORONTO, October 10th 2024) – The federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre lead the governing Liberals by twenty-two points, a new Pallas Data poll has found.
On October 5th, Pallas surveyed 1304 Canadian adults 18 or older eligible to vote through Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives have 44% support, while the Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, have 22%. With Jagmeet Singh at the helm, the NDP has 19%, while the Greens, led by Elizabeth May, have 4%. The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 8%, but 35% in Quebec.
“Conservative domination continues,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “As Liberals dip in support, and the Bloc is doing better in Quebec, the more interesting race in the next election might be which party forms the Official Opposition.”
The Conservatives have large leads in every region in the country except Quebec, where they are nine points behind the Bloc Quebecois.
“Canadians’ federal vote intentions are rather set,” continued Dr. Angolano. “There isn’t much a federal politician can do or say at this point to change voters’ minds. The only thing that might get voters to reconsider their options is a federal election where most Canadians pay attention.”
There is a significant gender gap. The Conservatives have a thirty-point lead among men over the Liberals (52% to 22%) but find themselves tied with the Liberals at 31% among women.
Canadians Don’t Feel Good About The Economy, But More Bullish About Their Finances
The survey also found that a substantial majority of Canadians think the Canadian economy is getting worse. A total of 62% of Canadians believed that the economy was getting worse, with 43% saying that it was getting worse. Only 22% said that the economy is getting better.
There is a significant generational gap, with anxiety about the Canadian economy much lower among Canadians older than 65. Moreover, this is a noticeable divide along partisan lines, as Conservative and Bloc voters are far more likely to say that the economy is getting worse, compared to Liberal and NDP voters who are more positive about the economy.
That said, Canadians are much more optimistic about the personal finances. 18% said they were very optimistic about their personal finances, with 24% saying they were somewhat optimistic (a total of 42%).
In contrast, 15% said they were somewhat pessimistic about their personal finances, and 14% said they were strongly pessimistic (a total of 29%).
“This is an interesting paradox we find here,” Angolano concluded. “Even though Canadians are starting to feel better about their finances—no doubt the lower interest rates have helped with that, but that optimism has not spilled over their outlook on the Canadian economy as a whole.”
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on a survey conducted on October 5th, 2024, among a sample of 1304 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in Canada.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7%, at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
